The $100k Global Warming Challenge

Bugeye · Dec 2, 2015

Padawanbater2 said:
You're implying climate scientists are stealing taxpayers money

"What is their motive?" - Protection of the environment

What's the motive of the elected officials who vote against climate change legislation that you say you're "concerned with"?

Let's investigate...

"Senators Who Rejected Human-Caused Climate Change Received 7 Times as Much Money from Oil and Gas Interests

December 2, 2015 -- On January 21, 2015, the Senate voted on a number of amendments to S. 1, the Keystone XL Pipeline Approval Act. While construction of the Keystone XL pipeline was rejected last month, several amendments to S. 1 address opinions about climate change more generally. One such amendment, S. Amdt. 58, expresses the sense of Congress that “human activity significantly contributes to climate change.” The amendment, which required a two-thirds majority to pass, failed by a vote of 50-49.

Senators voting ‘NO’ on the amendment received, on average, 7.1 times as much money ($259,314) from oil and gas interests compared to those voting ‘YES’ ($36,759) between April 1, 2009 and March 31, 2015.

Twelve senators received more than $300,000 from oil and gas interests between April 1, 2009 and March 31, 2015. All voted 'NO' on the amendment."

http://maplight.org/content/senators-who-rejected-human-caused-climate-change-received-7-times-as-much-money-from-oil-an

"… 68 percent of the Republican leadership in both House and Senate deny human-caused climate change. On the committee level, 13 out of 21 Republican members of the House Committee on Science, Space and Technology, or 62 percent, reject the science behind human-caused global warming, joined by 67 percent, or 21 out of 31 Republican members, of the House Energy and Commerce Committee … In addition to Inhofe, 10 out of 11, or 91 percent, of Republicans on EPW have said climate change is not happening or that humans do not cause it."

http://grist.org/politics/72-percent-of-gop-senators-deny-climate-change/

http://climate.nasa.gov/scientific-consensus/

Yeah, you are. That's ^^^ you jumping to conclusions. I quoted the article you cited that said "it appears", which is one single paper that would seem to directly contradict the scientific consensus, which is made up of thousands of peer reviewed papers

The picture appears to be very clear; the science is sound and political interests are clouding all reason from "skeptics". Have you looked into the financial incentives these elected officials have received? Does it appear to you to be a legitimate inquiry into the science of climate change or rather, does it appear to you to look like a group of sheister fucks in government have been bought off by the fossil fuel industry?

Yeah, I would agree with that, but claiming "It hasn't warmed in 18 years." isn't a debate. Objective, scientifically verifiable facts are not up for debate. 2014 was the hottest year and 2000-2010 was the hottest decade we have on record. If it hasn't warmed in 18 years, how could that be possible?;

https://www.nasa.gov/press/2015/january/nasa-determines-2014-warmest-year-in-modern-record

So the headline makes it sound like a 2014 was definitely the hottest year ever. NOAA gave it a 48% chance of being hottest ever, NASA gave it a 38% chance. Hardly definitive! Better than 50% chance it was NOT the hottest year ever according to NOAA and NASA!

Ha ha, just splitting hairs to illustrate how headlines often bend the truth a bit. 2014 was hot for a non-El Nino year, I agree.

link: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/briefings/201501.pdf

Padawanbater2 · Dec 2, 2015

Bugeye said:
So the headline makes it sound like a 2014 was definitely the hottest year ever. NOAA gave it a 48% chance of being hottest ever, NASA gave it a 38% chance. Hardly definitive! Better than 50% chance it was NOT the hottest year ever according to NOAA and NASA!

Ha ha, just splitting hairs to illustrate how headlines often bend the truth a bit. 2014 was hot for a non-El Nino year, I agree.

link: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/briefings/201501.pdf

That's not how it works

Can you point to a year any scientific organization believes was hotter than 2014?

NLXSK1 · Dec 2, 2015

Padawanbater2 said:
That's not how it works

Can you point to a year any scientific organization believes was hotter than 2014?

Yes, that is how it works. You just are too lazy or stupid to look at the math and science beneath the propaganda.

Padawanbater2 · Dec 2, 2015

NLXSK1 said:
Yes, that is how it works. You just are too lazy or stupid to look at the math and science beneath the propaganda.

What year was hotter than 2014 according to any credible scientific organization?

Bugeye · Dec 2, 2015

Padawanbater2 said:
That's not how it works

Can you point to a year any scientific organization believes was hotter than 2014?

I provided the link, NOAA says 52% chance 2014 not the hottest ever and NASA says 62% chance it isn't the hottest. They give odds on the other years that could be hottest. Anyway you want to slice it, they did not say 2014 was for sure the hottest year ever although I understand how you interpreted it that way. Yes, it was still a hot year.

NLXSK1 · Dec 2, 2015

Padawanbater2 said:
What year was hotter than 2014 according to any credible scientific organization?

Bugeye was correct, Nasa never said it was hotter, it gave it less than 50% chance of being the hottest year on record.

That is due to variability in the data of which you remain clueless...

Padawanbater2 · Dec 2, 2015

What year has a higher chance of being the hottest on record according to any credible scientific organization?

Seems like a pretty straightforward question to me..

If not 2014, then which year is it?

UncleBuck · Dec 2, 2015

heckler73 said:
Because you probably paid 4x that amount through your consumption.

what consumption?

i consume much less now with the high efficiency furnace. the windows help too.

i could stuff some cheap insulation in the attic and get a tax credit too.

that would also reduce my consumption.

what kind of conspiracy theory are you cooking up here, nutter?

heckler73 said:
Do you believe the corporate level doesn't pass the "savings" on to you?

it's the government who is giving me savings, dumbass.

you even just noted my higher "consumption" from the private end, idiot.

are you really this stupid?

heckler73 said:
Scientists don't need to steal taxpayers money...they get it from the tap. It's the politicos and apparatchiks I get concerned with since they have their hands on the spigots. What is their motive?

apparently they want to give me tax credits and electric bill rebates.

heckler73 said:
What consensus? Don't give me that 97% figure, please.

fine, i won't give you that number.

i'll let NASA do that.

http://climate.nasa.gov/scientific-consensus/

dumbass.

NLXSK1 · Dec 2, 2015

You apparently have no concept of statistical variability.

Nasa published it's results. They were not that 2014 was the hottest year on record. That was some political hack with an agenda. You bought it hook line and sinker without examining what NASA actually said.

When presented with what NASA actually said you want to disregard it and try to prove you are right by parading your ignorance around the forum. Good Job!!

UncleBuck · Dec 2, 2015

NLXSK1 said:
You apparently have no concept of statistical variability.

Nasa published it's results. They were not that 2014 was the hottest year on record. That was some political hack with an agenda. You bought it hook line and sinker without examining what NASA actually said.

When presented with what NASA actually said you want to disregard it and try to prove you are right by parading your ignorance around the forum. Good Job!!

NASA said that 2014 was most likely the hottest year on record.

no other year has as good a chance of being the hottest year, only 2014 does.

you have called climate change a hoax and stated that forest fires cause global cooling.

your opinion here is completely out of line.

Padawanbater2 · Dec 2, 2015

NLXSK1 said:
You apparently have no concept of statistical variability.

Nasa published it's results. They were not that 2014 was the hottest year on record. That was some political hack with an agenda. You bought it hook line and sinker without examining what NASA actually said.

When presented with what NASA actually said you want to disregard it and try to prove you are right by parading your ignorance around the forum. Good Job!!

So why is it so hard for you to answer which year was hotter than 2014?

I mean, here you are saying NASA gave it a 48% chance, sooo, which year was hotter, according to NASA?

So weird I have to keep asking you this since it should be such a simple question to answer if NASA says what you say they're saying..

So for the 4th time, according to NASA, what year was hotter than 2014?

You gonna keep avoiding this question?

heckler73 · Dec 3, 2015

Padawanbater2 said:
What year has a higher chance of being the hottest on record according to any credible scientific organization?

Seems like a pretty straightforward question to me..

If not 2014, then which year is it?

1936, perhaps?

Padawanbater2 said:
Yeah, you are. That's ^^^ you jumping to conclusions. I quoted the article you cited that said "it appears", which is one single paper that would seem to directly contradict the scientific consensus, which is made up of thousands of peer reviewed papers

You should do yourself a favour and see who penned that paper before sticking your foot any closer to your mouth.

Vapin' in the lab, yo...
'Ave ya ever 'ad yer balls trapped in a tweezer tornado, Billy? Ya harrrgh...

SCIENCE!!!@!!11!
Excuse me, but I have some Poisson brackets to crunch, and a light cryptography experiment to plan.

Padawanbater2 · Dec 3, 2015

heckler73 said:
1936, perhaps?

You should do yourself a favour and see who penned that paper before sticking your foot any closer to your mouth.

What does NASA have to say about 1936?

NASA scientists, like you said, I didn't check your sources, but I trust you

If that's the case, why does NASA still hold the consensus that 2014 was the hottest year on record and 00-10 was the hottest decade on record?

Harrekin · Dec 3, 2015

heckler73 said:
http://www.informath.org/Contest1000.htm

The solution to the carbon issue?

It's actually pretty simple, grow a SHITLOAD of hemp. Millions of acres worldwide.

When it's grown, bury it all...DEEP.

Nature's solution.

Bugeye · Dec 3, 2015

UncleBuck said:
you are a fucking idiot.

Name Calling or general rude behavior is no longer acceptable in the Cafe, We are adults which means that we should be able to debate without resorting to name calling. Warnings will be given out if users fail to act appropriately.

The_Herban_Legend · Dec 3, 2015

Padawanbater2 said:
What does NASA have to say about 1936?

NASA scientists, like you said, I didn't check your sources, but I trust you

If that's the case, why does NASA still hold the consensus that 2014 was the hottest year on record and 00-10 was the hottest decade on record?

Do you think it's accurate to take data from recorded temperatures (150 years worth) and conclude anything on a planet that is BILLIONS of years old?

Harrekin · Dec 3, 2015

The_Herban_Legend said:
Do you think it's accurate to take data from recorded temperatures (150 years worth) and conclude anything on a planet that is BILLIONS of years old?

It's funny, there's parts of human history we're unclear on and extrapolating what it was like then from today would lead to HUGE potential errors.

But fuck it, lets just generalise climate data (it's extremely inconsistent from different parts of the globe when not parsed together) and extrapolate it 4 billion years into the past...

m4s73r · Dec 3, 2015

Padawanbater2 said:
What year has a higher chance of being the hottest on record according to any credible scientific organization?

Seems like a pretty straightforward question to me..

If not 2014, then which year is it?

2015

Bugeye · Dec 3, 2015

Harrekin said:
It's funny, there's parts of human history we're unclear on and extrapolating what it was like then from today would lead to HUGE potential errors.

But fuck it, lets just generalise climate data (it's extremely inconsistent from different parts of the globe when not parsed together) and extrapolate it 4 billion years into the past...

Some data is better than other data and all of it has compatibility issues. @heckler73 posted a video a while back on the data integrity issues with ground stations that was really well done. Even the satellite data has to be adjusted for many different valid issues.

The NOAA adjustments to prior year periods needs to be explained in greater detail for proper peer review.

heckler73 · Dec 7, 2015

How does one measure the average temp of the globe? How does one find continuity in the data--with accuracy--over time?

The $100k Global Warming Challenge

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