War

Why Russia cannot become a democracy

cannabineer said:

y’all seen this bullshit? It’s like unloading your gun and then throwing the cartridges at someone.

Russia likely removing nuclear warheads from missiles and firing at Ukraine - British intelligence

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guess that's about all they got left...wonder what they'll do when they run out of those?

Roger A. Shrubber said:

guess that's about all they got left...wonder what they'll do when they run out of those?

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Fight them down to spears and shields, when the rockets run out, and the air defenses increase, they will repair their grid. 30% of the equipment the Ukrainians have is now down for maintenance and repair while more continues to arrive. The Ukrainians are mostly slaughtering mobiks sent in human wave attacks in the east, wearing them down with artillery at little cost to themselves, but killing large numbers of poorly equipped and untrained troops. When the ground freezes up, they reset and rebuild, they will strike the Russians again in a large operation. They are continuing to pin large forces of Russians in the southwest near Kherson and sooner or later they will drive to the south coast and cut the Russians in half. They already cut rail traffic to the region and Crimea, the Kerch bridge is out for rail traffic and it's just a matter of time until the finish them off in the south.

If you thought liberal democracies are facing problems, try the authoritarians, from Russia's near collapse, to Iran's riots and revolution and now China's people have apparently had enough of Xi. This might not change the leadership directly, but it will cause the elites to think harder about it. Next, I suppose south Korea will attack North Korea and snuff the fat little fucker after a massive precision missile strike while over running his starved slave army. Russia and China off the table with internal political turmoil, you never know what the future might hold.

DIY-HP-LED said:

If you thought liberal democracies are facing problems, try the authoritarians, from Russia's near collapse, to Iran's riots and revolution and now China's people have apparently had enough of Xi. This might not change the leadership directly, but it will cause the elites to think harder about it. Next, I suppose south Korea will attack North Korea and snuff the fat little fucker after a massive precision missile strike while over running his starved slave army. Russia and China off the table with internal political turmoil, you never know what the future might hold.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1596580477041016832

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there are some brave people in China...who stand up for what's right, against odds i would think at least three times about facing.

Roger A. Shrubber said:

there are some brave people in China...who stand up for what's right, against odds i would think at least three times about facing.
View attachment 5231144

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Sometimes bravery is just a case of I'm fed the fuck up and I just don't give a flying fuck no more!

That guy must have had a set of cajones on him tho.

Beards are back after WW1 eliminated them from soldiers faces, you would think that with the talk of chemical usage by the Russians and all the nuclear threats, they would be gone.

Looks like the focus is shifting to China, Russia is as good as done, stick a fork in them. We will end up with a north/south Korea situation there, with a prosperous Ukraine and a nightmare Russia, someone will need to build a fence with razor wire, to keep them in or out.

Opening this place up and others in central Asia could shake up world oil prices.

DIY-HP-LED said:

Fight them down to spears and shields, when the rockets run out, and the air defenses increase, they will repair their grid. 30% of the equipment the Ukrainians have is now down for maintenance and repair while more continues to arrive. The Ukrainians are mostly slaughtering mobiks sent in human wave attacks in the east, wearing them down with artillery at little cost to themselves, but killing large numbers of poorly equipped and untrained troops. When the ground freezes up, they reset and rebuild, they will strike the Russians again in a large operation. They are continuing to pin large forces of Russians in the southwest near Kherson and sooner or later they will drive to the south coast and cut the Russians in half. They already cut rail traffic to the region and Crimea, the Kerch bridge is out for rail traffic and it's just a matter of time until the finish them off in the south.

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Your tactical analisis is on the money,but we aren't dealing w/a rational actor in Putin,I've been thinking where the end game is in this conflict,last night I saw a former KGB guy on CNN( I forget his name,but he's not new as I've seen him before this war offer commentary),He claims we are on the brink of conflagration,says hoping for Putin overthrow is basically a pipe dream. As time has gone on we've settled in to a comfort zone here. While Russian conventional performance has been shockingly poor, their nuclear forces are still robust. Without a way to save face for Russia I don't know the of a outcome that averts disaster.I can't see Putin accepting a total defeat in which Ukraine wins back all pre 2014 territory which an emboldened Ukraine states as their only acceptable outcome.I don't have solutions to this situation,my fingers are crossed,but my enthusiasm for a WW2 style good over evil clearcut victory is tempered.

DIY-HP-LED said:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1596622781118316544

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forewarned is forearmed...Lukashenko is no prize, but he has to be better than zas

CCGNZ said:

Your tactical analisis is on the money,but we aren't dealing w/a rational actor in Putin,I've been thinking where the end game is in this conflict,last night I saw a former KGB guy on CNN( I forget his name,but he's not new as I've seen him before this war offer commentary),He claims we are on the brink of conflagration,says hoping for Putin overthrow is basically a pipe dream. As time has gone on we've settled in to a comfort zone here. While Russian conventional performance has been shockingly poor, their nuclear forces are still robust. Without a way to save face for Russia I don't know the of a outcome that averts disaster.I can't see Putin accepting a total defeat in which Ukraine wins back all pre 2014 territory which an emboldened Ukraine states as their only acceptable outcome.I don't have solutions to this situation,my fingers are crossed,but my enthusiasm for a WW2 style good over evil clearcut victory is tempered.

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either he will or he won't...either way, russia is fucked for at least decades, already.
if he uses a nuke, or chemical weapons, perhaps NATO will finally get the fuck off of their hands and send some men in, do some heavy bombing runs of known nuclear sites, and basically escalate the sanctions into full blown embargoes, with nothing going in or out of russia at all. if they threaten further strikes, then as far as i'm concerned, that should be sufficient provocation to bomb the entire country into a pile of broken bricks. if they want to act like neanderthals, they can go back to living in caves.
if putin either comes to some semblance of sanity, or is deposed/dies from the cancer everyone claims is eating him alive, then russia may survive, and might recover in a couple of generations, but there will be little if any outside aid for them, they'll have to struggle back to their pre war economy on their own, while previous customers tell them to shove their natural gas right back up their asses...they'll have to rely on grain and ore sales to rebuild, which will make it slow going.

BudmanTX said:

Weird stoner moment:

Ua has an oopsie with another air defence...

Poland declares war withe ua

Ua surrender

Poland(nato)..takes it.....defeacto nato????

Just a thought

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Could have a referendum.

CCGNZ said:

Your tactical analisis is on the money,but we aren't dealing w/a rational actor in Putin,I've been thinking where the end game is in this conflict,last night I saw a former KGB guy on CNN( I forget his name,but he's not new as I've seen him before this war offer commentary),He claims we are on the brink of conflagration,says hoping for Putin overthrow is basically a pipe dream. As time has gone on we've settled in to a comfort zone here. While Russian conventional performance has been shockingly poor, their nuclear forces are still robust. Without a way to save face for Russia I don't know the of a outcome that averts disaster.I can't see Putin accepting a total defeat in which Ukraine wins back all pre 2014 territory which an emboldened Ukraine states as their only acceptable outcome.I don't have solutions to this situation,my fingers are crossed,but my enthusiasm for a WW2 style good over evil clearcut victory is tempered.

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The consequences of his actions are his concern, he has a way out and it is out of all of Ukraine or he's as good as dead, even faster than might otherwise be the case. It is the only way he can arrest the slide and focus on retaining power and suppressing the opposition. The war won't end until he is gone and if he doesn't sign a meaningful peace, it will continue elsewhere like in Belarus. The more of his forces and economy that are destroyed the better their chances of freedom and it would give Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic states security and a friendly neighbor. Ukraine can ally with them outside NATO and deal with Russia on its own after this war destroys their military power.

Nukes are useless in this situation, and they would be useless if Asian republics wanted to break away from the Russian federation. America has lots of nukes but using them on rebel American citizens would be frowned upon! So would using them right next door to your own major population centers, 80% of ethnic Russians live in European Russia close to Ukraine, Moscow is only a couple of hundred miles from the border of Ukraine.

The coming slaughter of the mobiks, offensive operations chew up men and equipment the Russians don't have and with proper artillery support it will turn into a massacre. As soon as they get in range of the guns the killing will begin miles behind the front. The Russians desperately need to drive the Ukrainians back out of artillery range of the costal rail line, their only rail supply route to southern Ukraine and Crimea. The Ukrainians will counterattack after the Russian attacks have spent themselves and go all the way to the coast and divide the Russian forces. Since the Russians can't maneuver with untrained troops, poor leadership and poor communications, the Ukrainians could punch through and encircle a bunch of them.


Russia will attack from three directions

Roger A. Shrubber said:

forewarned is forearmed...Lukashenko is no prize, but he has to be better than zas

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A European refugee if he was smart, he would seek political asylum after grabbing some cash and heading west, then hiring a good lawyer.

DIY-HP-LED said:

A European refugee if he was smart, he would seek political asylum after grabbing some cash and heading west, then hiring a good lawyer.

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if he had any balls, he would gather his loyal staff, go and shoot this Zas guy in the head, then kick every russian in the country the fuck out. what are they gonna do? invade in retaliation?

Note the cellphones, control of information is essential for a dictatorship to maintain power, people are dissatisfied and can communicate, network and organize. Who watches the watchers when they are pissed too? The more Xi personally drives the policy because of personal paranoia, the more isolated he will become inside his own government. Maybe it's a feature of despots, Putin isolated himself over covid too and Trump is reported to be a germophobe, but his performance with covid proved he wasn't a very good one, even at that. Fear of poisoning would be another thing, because right about now some Russians would like to see Vlad glow in the dark or bleed through the eyeballs before croaking.