Lockdowns don't work.

abandonconflict

abandonconflict

Well-Known Member
Kassiopeija said:
Problem here is there's no way of telling how the situation would be now w/o the lockdown.
Click to expand...
I disagree. We could certainly surmise that employment and the economy would not be taking such a huge hit. We could without a doubt assume that goods and servces would be widely available and supply chains would remain intact. We can see very clearly the damage of our lockdown. What is unclear is what good it's doing.
 
DIY-HP-LED

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
abandonconflict said:
Clownshoes. So first you make a kamikaze remark, then I'm a Trump supporter just because I disagree with you. Then you cite an article from a rag owned by Jack Ma. You need to tighten up your shot group today. I agree with Fauci. We should have isolated sooner. We don't need to completely lock everything down everywhere. At this point, New York has no choice but to be locked down because it just can't function, but it definitely didn't isolate until 3 weeks ago really.

Isolation is what I suggest, not lockdowns.
Click to expand...
We are under voluntary social isolation for the most part here in North America, we don't have goons patrolling the streets, people see the sense in cooperating with the measures, indeed there is a "spirit" of cooperation. This epidemic got away from governments everywhere and almost everybody has to push the reset button to keep the hospitals from being overwhelmed, we are still in that phase and are planning to reopen now, I even created a thread on the subject a few days ago starting with the ideas and opinions of economic experts. Every country is going to approach this differently and in North America and europe it will be testing (two kinds and maybe even a third for the vulnerable) and perhaps limited social contact tracing using technology. The Philippines under dirtbag will end up using a eugenic approach, survive on your own or die, you're young and healthy though.

Nothing will be done in America unless Trump is removed, most of the governors are doing their best, but the federal government is decapitated and has been for over 3 years. Like I said, it might be best to think about going back home for a spell and after Trump is gone you can bring your family
 
Last edited:
abandonconflict

abandonconflict

Well-Known Member
DIY-HP-LED said:
We are under voluntary social isolation for the most part here in North America, we don't have goons patrolling the streets, people see the sense in cooperating with the measures, indeed there is a "spirit" of cooperation.
Click to expand...
That's not true. People want to go to work, attend classes, and have an economy. This is so far, an accepted collective hardship, because people are convinced it is doing some good.

I'm not convinced. China lied about its numbers and several countries with no lockdowns are doing very well. There's really no actual numerical proof that the lockdowns are doing any good, but the economic impact is cataclysmic. If the republics fall, what do you think will happen to the healthcare system then?
 
DIY-HP-LED

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
abandonconflict said:
That's not true. People want to go to work, attend classes, and have an economy. This is so far, an accepted collective hardship, because people are convinced it is doing some good.

I'm not convinced. China lied about its numbers and several countries with no lockdowns are doing very well. There's really no actual numerical proof that the lockdowns are doing any good, but the economic impact is cataclysmic. If the republics fall, what do you think will happen to the healthcare system then?
Click to expand...
It is true for the vast majority of the population here, not where you are or in many other developing countries where people have to work everyday to eat and there is no government dole, there the social pressure will be enormous. Hunger will drive you out your door in search of food. If America fails in this challenge it will be a failure of the leadership, but also in many ways a failure of the society. My country Canada is kinda joined at the hip with America and our economies are fairly integrated, even with responsible government here we are still going to get hammered by the US fallout.

Abandon, people want to do the right thing, but when need exceeds fear they will do what they must to survive. It will get that way where you live faster than here, but if trump keeps fucking up and is not removed by summer, we just might have to compromise our principals too. Here reopening the economy is being carefully considered by the government of Canada in an organised and careful way. We are locked down because we cannot test and are flying blind, I figured testing would end up being an issue if this thing got away and it is, everybody wants the same thing at the same time from swabs and reagents to PPE.

If you want to propose reopening the economy don't start the conversation with a declarative that is not only unsupported by the data and expert opinion, but is contrary to it. That is if you want to have a responsible debate and not just push disinformation for personal purposes. I and every other responsible person have an moral and ethical duty to counter such things. This is as much a moral and ethical debate as it is a scientific one at this point in time, though Sweden is conducting an experiment as we speak, I wonder how that is gonna work out for them, their parents and grandparents.
 
abandonconflict

abandonconflict

Well-Known Member
DIY-HP-LED said:
It is true for the vast majority of the population here
Click to expand...
No, it isn't. People just want it to be over. They want to get back to work, attend classes and have an economy. By and large, that is what pople want. They accept a lockdown because that is what has been ordered by state and municipal governments because the federal authorities did not implement travel restrictions and effectively screen international entries. The public was told, very definitively, that the lockdowns would flatten the curve. People will not hold out forever and continue to buy this nonsense.

To date, there is not one iota of solid fucking numerical proof that a lockdown has been effective in flattening the curve, anywhere. In disaster areas like Rome, NYC, New Orleans etc, businesses were ordered to close and cases continued to sky rocket. It absolutely can not be proven that lockdowns flatten the curve. I refuckingpeat any slight amount of graphical inflection could be as easily explained by travel restrictions. Even if nothing had been done, cases could be graphed as a parabola. In other words, they'd increase and then decrease on their own anyway. It is much more likely that this is coming under control because those most susceptible have already been infected and the rest have isolated effectively regardless of what the government says. Fomites don't obey goons.

Forcing everyone to close means that people are left with fewer choices to get food. Those few sources end up becoming magnets for fomites, where superspreaders lurk. Meanwhile the economy is completely fucking dead, stick a fork in it.
 
abandonconflict

abandonconflict

Well-Known Member
Remember that shit? Flatten the curve they said. It didn't fucking flatten. Even if it's at it's parabolic apex and we're almost at the other side, it was fucking sharp. Straight up. Not flat.

Lockdowns did not flatten the curve. It's been long enough to know.
 
abandonconflict

abandonconflict

Well-Known Member
Dumb asses in charge: "Hey guys, let's kill the economy to flatten the curve"
rest of the dumb asses: "OK, sounds better than lots of deaths"

*economy killed
*lots of deaths
*curve not flat
 
DIY-HP-LED

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
abandonconflict said:
Lockdowns did not flatten the curve. It's been long enough to know.
Click to expand...
This is contrary to the data available so far and at odds with the opinion of every leading expert, perhaps you have some special insight or knowledge on this subject? If the ideas weren't so fucking dangerous I wouldn't give a shit.

Take a break and learn to quiet your mind, your intellectual power is being usurped my your emotional distress and used to mount clever but meaningless arguments that fly in the face of common senses and expert opinion. We are doing social distancing and voluntary stay at home here because we care about others and put them before ourselves, it's a luxury we have here. Sure people want to go back to their old lives, people hate change and many are neophobes, but there's reality vs desire.

I encourage a thoughtful discussion on how to reopen the economy and have created a responsible thread with a responsible title to carry forward that discussion.
 
abandonconflict

abandonconflict

Well-Known Member
Fogdog said:
So, I'm outraged and stunned by the way Trump and Republicans behaved in January and early Feb. There is no good reason why we didn't learn from South Korea and implement their strategy. The main mistake the Republican administration made was to decide against using the test already available through WHO. Instead, the US developed its own tests then botched the roll out. We STILL have not put in place anything like what S Korea did.

Lockdowns weren't meant to be permanent, they were necessary to damp down the rate at which the number of people that were being hospitalized so that hospitals could continue to function. Without a containment strategy in place, ending lockdowns or avoiding them where they haven't been needed yet, just sets us up for a new wave of sick people heading to ICUs. The only way we can come out of lockdown and avoid mass die-offs, is if we have good response teams to isolate each and every new case, then trace who has been exposed and isolate them. I don't know what else we can do without a tested, safe, reliable and available vaccine.

Oh, and fuck antivaxxers.
Click to expand...
I understand what lockdowns were intended for. I simply dispute that they have done so. Any case where lockdowns have been argued to flatten the curve, there have also been other measures taken, in particular travel bans. However, better results have been achieved where no such lockdowns have occurred and it's not anecdotal when all of the of these following factors are cited along with those cases (Taiwan, South Korea, Hong Kong) which clearly demonstrate excellent result and no such lockdowns.

1) results can be explained another way

2) it can not be proven numerically that lockdowns have had any real effect

3) overall death rates have not been favorable because other medical needs are largely ignored

4) The economic impact threatens the very healthcare system that the lockdowns were intended to save

5) it's simply unsustainable and people are going to get sick of it.

If I'm sunbathing on the beach, a hundred feet from anyone, I am safer than I am indoors. Sunlight kills germs too. If I am at the one grocery store that is allowed to operate within a kilometer of my residence, even with a mask on, I could come into contact with billions of fomites and bring the contagion back to my residence.

If there are no cases in my city and people can't visit my city, there will be no cases in my city. Any possible spread through regular supply lines could be traced and investigated. Any visitors who simply must visit my city can isolate for two weeks.

The real problem sticking out, to me, is that we are not quite seeing the apex in New York, but it's been completely locked down since early March. The average incubation period is 8 days (2-14 days) and from that one can only deduce that it continued spreading very rapidly after the lockdown was implemented.
 
Kassiopeija

Kassiopeija

Well-Known Member
abandonconflict said:
I'm not convinced. China lied about its numbers and several countries with no lockdowns are doing very well. There's really no actual numerical proof that the lockdowns are doing any good, but the economic impact is cataclysmic. If the republics fall, what do you think will happen to the healthcare system then?
Click to expand...
tbh I find it quite good that several nations are using a different approach to mitigate the problem - later on we can learn from that and be better off against another viral threat in the near future. Societies are also differently in that they have differntly weighing age groups - potentially changing the lethality of the virus. Because that's all that there is to this infection - it's just too deadly for the old and maybe because of that, our politicans fear for their lifes as well.

Nevertheless, a lot of lives can be saved by simple machines - ventilators. Look at the death rate in Germany and compare to the rest of the world - we are an old society that underwent the demographic change but public healthcare is in good shape. So all that is needed is time to produce these machines - and since the need drastically arose a few weeks ago there've been already made some fantastic inventions coming from the private sector which are taking the cost & production time down by far.

And I don't think we'll keep this lockdown up forever, it's just to buy production time. Politicians & the private healthcare sector underestimated the danger and seem to have no corporate interest into preparation of emergency cases & plagues. This is something we need to address firmly once the crisis has been defeated. We should think about a strategy to combat easily transmissible pathogens while still all people can roam free - so our society can always utilize its full strength. Because in one sense it's true - the current behaviour is hurting overall and draining our power. It's something that can only work out for a limited period of time.

abandonconflict said:
We could certainly surmise that employment and the economy would not be taking such a huge hit.
Click to expand...
tbh I think the world would be better off if life did slow somewhat down, there would be more time for your family, less heartattacks, less environmental waste... but then there's capitalism....

abandonconflict said:
We could without a doubt assume that goods and servces would be widely available and supply chains would remain intact.
Click to expand...
It's fully intact where I am, everything that is necessary is still enabled. But the more contact the more chance of a spread so it still spreads. Just not as fast as it would otherwise.
However, I think we still need to observe the ongoing trends of the all the nations which picked up a different solution and then go from there.
 
abandonconflict

abandonconflict

Well-Known Member
DIY-HP-LED said:
This is contrary to the data available so far and at odds with the opinion of every leading expert
Click to expand...
No it isn't. They believed it would flatten the curve, shit's happening in real time. those curves aren't flat. They're extremely acutely fucking up and lockdowns have no effect. Fomites don't obey goons.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top