a 99 plant grow is much different than a 12 or 24 plant endeavor. I've already been asked to have meds ready so they WILL be stocking the shelves from our grows at first. If you want an interesting take on the whole thing, this is some of the discussion in our grow group with some input from a former shop owner in Cali and Oregon. Here's his take on how it will go down......oh,...and don't mind the 30 troll, he thrives on attention. I WOULD be interested in reading up on this case he speaks of if it exists. This IS RI, home of the crooked so nothing would surprise me but considering this source,I'm not holding breath. Back to the discussion, here ya go.....
"Usually when the dispensary first fires up they want as many flavors as possible on the shelves..it is alot easier to sell a pound of 8 different flavors(2 zips a piece) than it is to sell a full pound of a single flavor,,they do that for about a year to figure out what the local market really wants, then they get into whole lbs of single flavors.... ya gotta hit them before they get their grows online, once they have the super overhead to cover with their own grow ops thats the end of buying outside product...and don't get confused in thinkin that the high price you see them sell crap at has anything at all to do with what they pay...they want 50% or better margins
Your goin to see about a three year arc on what they pay for incoming product...startin out as high as $1200 or $4,200-4,500 for 4 flavors in a lb....people will start merchin in the next 6 or 8 months and hittin 3,000-3,200 lbs for 5 packs or better, but by the end of the first year you will be closer to $2800-$3000...by the end of the second year dispensaries will be at $2000-$2500 at best and they will piss and moan about that....third year, your done, the dispensaries will have their big commercial supply relationships set and their own grow ops goin.....the first 100 light grow you here about is the beginning of the end for the small guy sellin into the system so be quick and hit a lick.
You can still get a "possession with intent to distribute" charge whether you sell it of not so watch out on that one"
-wondering if I could also get your opinion on part II of the dilemma here. Many fear the scenario you described above because they see the end result being the abolishment of the c/g program once the centers are self sufficient. DO you see any truth in this? I, personally think, that the patients will always need personal c/g's, but the state may have other ideas....thoughts?
"It just makes it tough for caregivers it doesn't do away with it,,you can still have your 5 patients but your plant counts start to get a little high and with all due respect, patients are a total pain in the ass, sorry guys but you are and 5 is a total ass whip.....the despensary owners are goin to start to fight like hell to squash mid size producers out and be vertically integrated by producing their own meds and it is really the only way for the state to close the loop on the tax and supply chain...despensaries love the caregiver and mid size producer the first year or so because they need you and then they will do everything they can to scale up and price you out..once your state throws the preverbial 99 plant federal threshold out the window it ramps up real real quick...it takes about a year for state and lawyers to figure out that 99 plants means absolutley squat to the feds these days, out here the threshold is in excess of 1000 plants with no paperwork at all before your recommended to the feds....as far as the state is concerned and the IRS for that matter, every caregiver out there is not payin their share of taxes...the only way for them to secure the tax dollar is have a closed loop...which is another silly deal because no banks or credit mercahant will take the accounts so it is still a cash business... caregivers aren't big fans of 1099's either and owners don't want to hand them out because of the paper trail both ways, but there in lies the problem with the state...get a couple 1099's for a couple hundred grand, caregivin and sellin to despensaries gets a whole lot less appealing all the sudden.
Don't worry about the first round of big despensary grows because most fail, despensary guys usually see no difference in a bangin 4 light grow and a 100 light grow and they fail myserably...100 lights, thats 100lbs minimum every 60 days in their minds..LMFAO...The whole time tellin ya that they are puttin you outta biz in a couple months and won't need you anymore but they'll buy what you have this time and then fail fail fail again, you have about a year after they get their grows goin before they get it all figured out.
The Cali and Colorado indoor and outdoor floods in with the quickness, especailly outdoor startin in late September..the Cali boys start rollin in with body bags full of killer outdoor that goes for 1000-1200/lb out there but 3000-3500/lb in 5-50 packs, usually anything over 20lbs gets down in the 1400-1600 range for outdoor, that goes till first of december. So remember that if you haven't sold yours by mid October your probably goin to want to sit on it till feb when the prices crawl back up or take volume prices in the ass.
Honestly now, If I owned a despensary in a new med state, i would pouch someone from Colo or Cali with some experience to come and setup and run your big grow right outta the chute....not to many big grows in non med states so not alot of experience and it is not the same thing, scalin up to 100 lights and 200 lights is a beast.. so if everyone is used to closet growin or even some 10 and 12k grows and even if it is the best you have ever seen in your life, they just don't have the skills to go big yet, it is a expensive learning curve to the max...check your ego at the door and get a grower with some real experience and a giant ego to get you in the game with the quickness..
IMO hit while you can and no matter how many rules and regs your readin now, they will ALL change about every 6 months for the next couple of years, its way way more productive to pay them no mind at all and blow and go for a couple of years and then as the dust settles, and they hit $160/oz at every despensary in town, you can decide where you want to align yourself either in the industry or in the private sector. In hindsight I would have done it way way bigger in the begginning and really blown it up and the scale back when all the regs started to get in place a little more
Go get a local "plant or botanical husbandry" permit real quick and without a fuse before it is a real big deal and look for warehouses in 1A industrial parks away from schools and parks...and no matter what make sure your at least 1000ft away from any school, church, daycare, public park, after school daycare, in house daycare ...save yourself some hassle and expense..there is no grandfather rule when it comes to schools and the like because they will make you move or shut you down and they may wait a couple of years to do it just when you get settled in.."
I know I sound a little "matter of fact" and maybe a little jaded about it all but I've watched it here and in a few other states now and its about the same everywhere that is a new med state..
Extracts, hash, oil, shatter, budder, wax, moon rocks, glass, amber etc...that is big money early on but then it floods from the big grows trying to salvage failed grows, gotta try and make something outta it and there are only so many pre-rolls you can hawk to the masses...lol
No one follows the rules and makes money, so if your in it to win it, go full tilt for the next two years and don't look back..the laws evolve and will definatley change a few times before it settles down
