The Long March to 11/24

Fogdog said:

Its hard for me to accept that our democracy can be gamed as Republicans did in 2016 to win a national election even though they garnered a minority of the vote. I put highest priority on the commitment to democracy and winning elections by rules set ahead of the political season. So, yes, there is a path for GOP to squeak a win through by secretly funding a fake 3rd party that could siphon off enough votes in key states to throw the election to them. That said, Democrats are playing by the same rules. Their job is to win the election fairly under those rules. No whining.

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Bagginski said:

The GOP ‘win’ in ’16 didn’t begin in ‘16: it began w/ the Powell memo in ‘71, w/ the libertarians as just another hot-air club @ the Steak & Ale & Jerry Falwell as a 3rd-rank Bible-pusher. Since then, 45 years of “federalist” infiltration & subversion, of Grover Norquist drowning the federal government in a bathtub & That Other Guy & his “permanent republican majority” (Karl Rove - I remembered!)

if you remember HRC and her “vast right-wing conspiracy”, it was the volunteer support for the Powell memo & its purposes she was trying to refer to, parallel w/ Chaz Koch’s desire to be a *real aristocrat - who’s done much of the orchestrating & organizing behind the scenes in the dark-money pit.

…And BTW: whatever happened to @Hanimal???

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Bagginski said:

The GOP ‘win’ in ’16 didn’t begin in ‘16: it began w/ the Powell memo in ‘71, w/ the libertarians as just another hot-air club @ the Steak & Ale & Jerry Falwell as a 3rd-rank Bible-pusher. Since then, 45 years of “federalist” infiltration & subversion, of Grover Norquist drowning the federal government in a bathtub & That Other Guy & his “permanent republican majority” (Karl Rove - I remembered!)

if you remember HRC and her “vast right-wing conspiracy”, it was the volunteer support for the Powell memo & its purposes she was trying to refer to, parallel w/ Chaz Koch’s desire to be a *real aristocrat - who’s done much of the orchestrating & organizing behind the scenes in the dark-money pit.

…And BTW: whatever happened to @hanimal???

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cannabineer said:

One of the ways the Powell memo was “the shot heard ‘round the world” of the culture war. It laid out a blueprint for the “libertarian”/corporatist counterrevolution, one whose effect on politics cannot be overstated.

A particular target of the corporatists has been and is education, initially liberal-arts higher education, which they correctly identified as the wellspring for those corrosive ideas of social and environmental justice. Now even kindergarten is not immune to being vetted for the seeds of wokeness, which at my hand is not pejorative but a blanket term for the application of critical thought to block the fascism that is the natural consequence of their agenda fulfilled.

Powell memo helped launch attacks on higher ed (opinion)

To understand today’s conservative attacks on higher ed, look to the ambitious pro-corporate agenda laid out in the 1971 Powell memo, Linda Stamato writes.

www.insidehighered.com

[A student in her 1991 thesis] found [the new breed of conservative think tanks aggressively shaping policy] “positions on higher education issues focused on a perceived decline in the teaching of Western culture, opposition to affirmative action and multicultural studies, and calls for decreases in funding for higher education.”

Whoomp there it is:
the implicit racism and Monopoly-game patriarchy that propels the current hot war on liberalism and the republic by, for and of the people.

Now the generals have laid the strategic plan to roll on the egalitarian Enemy in their very own Unternehmen Barbarossa.

Project 2025 - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

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Fogdog said:

I got the sense that hanimal simply lost interest.

Regarding the vast right-wing conspiracy that plagued us from the Reagan years to Shrub.

I miss those guys. This pack of MAGA fascists might also be funded by wealthy people who continue to live by the phrase "why should the wealthy suffer?". But it's not the same conspiracy. Until the 2010's they at least tried to compete for votes using fake economic theory (libertarian) and disinformation instead of relying on winning through suppression of their opponent's votes. That and their violent, menacing, illiberal, openly corrupt behavior makes MAGA folks more dangerous. MAGA comes from the same roots as the libertarian faux freedom movement/vast right wing conspiracy but when GOP leadership realized that Republican voters didn't trust capitalism any more than Democrats did, they doubled down on white grievance politics and white nationalist authoritarianism. Many of the same people who funded Tea Party politicians now fund Trump MAGA politicians, the Kochs being an exception. It's still power and unrestrained gluttony they seek but recast in an absolutist authoritarian white nationalist political ideology instead of the faux free market bullshit preached at the Von Mises Institute.

Why not? With only the years after the 9/11 disaster to hold up as an example, the conservative right were losing ground, election after election ever since Reagan left office. Then came along the Tea Party libertarians, which Koch funded but fizzled and then Trump's MAGA rose up. It's mostly funded by the same people. I completely agree that the same people with the same objectives who were behind Pat Buchanan and Shrub are backing Trump. But the political ideology has shifted from subverting US democracy to ending it.

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Fogdog said:

I got the sense that hanimal simply lost interest.

Regarding the vast right-wing conspiracy that plagued us from the Reagan years to Shrub.

I miss those guys. This pack of MAGA fascists might also be funded by wealthy people who continue to live by the phrase "why should the wealthy suffer?". But it's not the same conspiracy. Until the 2010's they at least tried to compete for votes using fake economic theory (libertarian) and disinformation instead of relying on winning through suppression of their opponent's votes. That and their violent, menacing, illiberal, openly corrupt behavior makes MAGA folks more dangerous. MAGA comes from the same roots as the libertarian faux freedom movement/vast right wing conspiracy but when GOP leadership realized that Republican voters didn't trust capitalism any more than Democrats did, they doubled down on white grievance politics and white nationalist authoritarianism. Many of the same people who funded Tea Party politicians now fund Trump MAGA politicians, the Kochs being an exception. It's still power and unrestrained gluttony they seek but recast in an absolutist authoritarian white nationalist political ideology instead of the faux free market bullshit preached at the Von Mises Institute.

Why not? With only the years after the 9/11 disaster to hold up as an example, the conservative right were losing ground, election after election ever since Reagan left office. Then came along the Tea Party libertarians, which Koch funded but fizzled and then Trump's MAGA rose up. It's mostly funded by the same people. I completely agree that the same people with the same objectives who were behind Pat Buchanan and Shrub are backing Trump. But the political ideology has shifted from subverting US democracy to ending it.

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printer said:

"No billionaire would say to vote for anyone but me."
Trump says ‘there’s no way’ Taylor Swift will endorse Biden
Former President Trump on Sunday poured cold water on the idea global superstar Taylor Swift would endorse President Biden amid swirling speculation the incumbent’s campaign team is trying to secure the endorsement of the pop singer.

“I signed and was responsible for the Music Modernization Act for Taylor Swift and all other Musical Artists. Joe Biden didn’t do anything for Taylor, and never will,” Trump wrote in a post on Truth Social on Sunday. “There’s no way she could endorse Crooked Joe Biden, the worst and most corrupt President in the History of our Country, and be disloyal to the man who made her so much money.”

“Besides that, I like her boyfriend, Travis, even though he may be a Liberal, and probably can’t stand me!” in reference to Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce, who is dating Swift.

Trump was referencing a bill he signed in 2018 that dealt with copyright issues that was seen as a landmark bill for the music industry.

Questions surrounding Swift’s potential involvement in politics were sparked last month after The New York Times released a report that Biden’s aides are vying for the support of the “Shake It Off” singer as the campaign centers its focus on November’s general election. The Times reported the campaign was flooded with suggestions to get Swift’s voice on board, including sending Biden to a stop of Swift’s “Eras Tour.”

Trump’s comment on a potential Swift endorsement comes just hours before Kelce and the Chiefs will square off with the San Francisco 49ers for Super Bowl LVII on Sunday in Las Vegas.

The timing of Swift’s budding relationship with Kelce has prompted swirling conspiracy theories on conservative media. The theories are based on the unfounded idea that the league is rigging games to make sure the pop singer and her boyfriend’s team both make and win the Super Bowl and eventually support Biden’s reelection bid.

The singer has not spoken about endorsing Biden’s 2024 run, but she did voice her support for him during the 2020 presidential election in an interview with V Magazine. An endorsement from Swift could spark a boost in Biden’s numbers, with some pointing to Swift’s single Instagram post last year directing her followers to the nonpartisan, nonprofit Vote.org that led to 35,000 new voter registrations.

Trump says ‘there’s no way’ Taylor Swift will endorse Biden

Former President Trump on Sunday poured cold water on the idea global superstar Taylor Swift would endorse President Biden amid swirling speculation the incumbent’s campaign team is trying to…

thehill.com

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cannabineer said:

I am beginning to doubt the stories of him using a diaper. He shits out of his mouth.

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printer said:

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Bagginski said:

I’ve never gambled professionally so I can’t make anything out of those “betting odds”, sorry

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Bagginski said:

I’ve never gambled professionally so I can’t make anything out of those “betting odds”, sorry

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Sativied said:

(Note: not suggesting anyone should take my gambling advice or gamble at all).

Trump 54.55%
Biden 34.8%
Haley 5%

With billions at stake for them, they put in a lot of effort and expertise to determine the odds. Frequently updated, Trumps and Biden % says little to nothing right now besides what odds (and thus rewards) they offer if you bet on it.

It’s a matter of risk vs reward. Compare to the nearly 50% you can get at roulette where you at best double your money when you win. That’s a bad (stupid) bet. To make a meaningful amount of money with that you need to bet and risk pretty much that same amount. The actual odds you get are then known and the same for everyone. This is metaphorically more like cutting coupons mixed with trading stocks than a casino game, it’s a grind, side income for many brits, full for some. Hardly professional gamblers, requires no more than basic math and self-restraint (those without sponsor the rest).

They give Haley only 20 to 1, as in 5% chance of winning general elections and payout at win is 20x initial bet. If you think Haley has a 10% chance, that’s a better bet than at best doubling your money in a coin flip. With a factual 10% chance, you‘d normally only get 10x payout.

For anyone convinced or even confident Trump ends up to be convicted and excluded (that’s a caveat of course), Haley’s chances obviously increase a lot, even if you’re pretty confident she won’t win. If you, for example, think Haley is the backup candidate for gop, and has 48.6% chance running against Biden, that bet is nearly 20x better than what a casino offers at the roulette table.

Put differently, for anyone convinced Trump ends up excluded from the elections and gives Haley vs Biden roughly 50-50 chance: Imagine someone offers you a coin flip bet at $10 but instead of potentially doubling your money you’d get $200 if you win. Given enough flips that’s a no-brainer, given 1 flip that‘s still something worth throwing some change at. Even if you give Haley only 30%, it’s still a great bet (for betters).

Put $100 on Biden with the odds at the top and you get 287.50 if he wins. You‘d bet against British bookies, who are sometimes considered to be spoilers of future events.

Put $100 on Haley with her odds and you get $2000 if she wins.

Do both the above and if Haley doesn’t win, but Biden does, you still get 87.50 net profit and your bet on Haley was free.

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Fogdog said:

Yep, it's looking good for Trump right now. A poll by FT-Michigan Ross said US voters "Far more Americans trust Donald Trump to handle the US economy than Joe Biden despite months of strong growth", with Trump having an 11 point favorability rating over Biden in that poll.

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Sativied said:

Months of strong growth is a major understatement. US is in a goldilocks economy and close to a point the pandemic and everything after never happened. Impressive would still be an understatement. Unfortunately "It's the economy, stupid" doesn't work as well in post-truth era.

Speaking of odds... my bank considers Trump's the biggest risk to the US economy, basically expect him to fuck up the US economy and consumers again if he would win (for example with the 10% universal tariff he wants to impose). One of the things they say contributed to the economic success is.... foreign workers. 5mil more than at bottom level during pandemic, 3mil more than in 2019.

Unemployment rate at 3.7%... still nearly 50-year record low. That's almost as good as NL and way better than in almost all of Europe. Can't all be like the Germans.

"Trust Donald Trump to handle the US economy than Joe Biden" is perhaps the dumbest reason to vote for Trump. Some could argue Trump would be better for their own wallet maybe, but for the economy as a whole...

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