political myths

abandonconflict

Well-Known Member
That you progs are unaware of the warming hiatus, and the discrepancy between the predicted corrolation between increased CO2 and global warming that has not panned out does not reflect poorly upon me.

The internet has been awash in this info for years. You are all free to practice your religion, however, this is America.


http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2013/09/130925-global-warming-pause-climate-change-science-ipcc/

Although climate models have been predicting increasing average global temperatures over the next century or so, the past decade has not shown as much warming as most scientists had expected. The year 2012 was no warmer than 2002. The IPCC draft report acknowledges a "global warming hiatus," according to media reports.


http://business.financialpost.com/2014/06/16/the-global-warming-hiatus/

While the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) still uses the iconic word “unequivocal” to describe warming of the climate system over the past century, a new word has slipped into its lexicon: the “hiatus.” They have begun referring, with a bit of hesitant throat-clearing, to “the warming hiatus since 1998.”

Both satellites and surface records show that sometime around 2000, temperature data ceased its upward path and leveled off. Over the past 100 years there is a statistically significant upward trend in the data amounting to about 0.7 oC per century. If one looks only at the past 15 years though, there is no trend.

It will by 2017 be impossible to reconcile climate models with reality

A leveling-off period is not, on its own, the least bit remarkable. What makes it remarkable is that it coincides with 20 years of rapidly rising atmospheric greenhouse gas levels. Since 1990, atmospheric carbon dioxide levels have risen 13%, from 354 parts per million (ppm) to just under 400 ppm. According to the IPCC, estimated “radiative forcing” of greenhouse gases (the term it uses to describe the expected heating effect) increased by 43% after 2005. Climate models all predicted that this should have led to warming of the lower troposphere and surface. Instead, temperatures flatlined and even started declining. This is the important point about the pause in warming. Indeed, the word that ought to have entered the IPCC lexicon is not “hiatus” but “discrepancy.”
This bullshit has been debunked repeatedly by peer reviewed science. I'm not impressed by your newspaper articles by the way, please link peer reviewed research. Here I'll describe the jist of the retorts from the scientists regarding the "warming hiatus". It's true that atmospheric temperature averages, while concealing extreme variation, have pointed to a trend that doesn't match prediction regarding the period referred to colloquially as the "warming hiatus". However, during that time, ocean temperatures have gone up at unprecedented rates, leading to acidification and continuing the feedback loop. Multiyear ice in the arctic has shrunk drastically in this time.

In conclusion, the "warming hiatus" idea is flawed because it cherry picks data. It completely ignores the evidence of warming in the ocean in order to attack previous predictions by measuring only atmospheric temperature averages.

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2009JD012105/abstract

Wiley 2009
ABSTRACT
We examine the Earth's energy balance since 1950, identifying results that can be obtained without using global climate models. Important terms that can be constrained using only measurements and radiative transfer models are ocean heat content, radiative forcing by long-lived trace gases, and radiative forcing from volcanic eruptions. We explicitly consider the emission of energy by a warming Earth by using correlations between surface temperature and satellite radiant flux data and show that this term is already quite significant. About 20% of the integrated positive forcing by greenhouse gases and solar radiation since 1950 has been radiated to space. Only about 10% of the positive forcing (about 1/3 of the net forcing) has gone into heating the Earth, almost all into the oceans. About 20% of the positive forcing has been balanced by volcanic aerosols, and the remaining 50% is mainly attributable to tropospheric aerosols. After accounting for the measured terms, the residual forcing between 1970 and 2000 due to direct and indirect forcing by aerosols as well as semidirect forcing from greenhouse gases and any unknown mechanism can be estimated as −1.1 ± 0.4 W m−2 (1σ). This is consistent with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's best estimates but rules out very large negative forcings from aerosol indirect effects. Further, the data imply an increase from the 1950s to the 1980s followed by constant or slightly declining aerosol forcing into the 1990s, consistent with estimates of trends in global sulfate emissions. An apparent increase in residual forcing in the late 1990s is discussed.
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0375960112010389
Nuccitelli 2012
Abstract
A recent paper by Douglass and Knox (hereafter DK12) states that the global flux imbalance between 2002 and 2008 was approximately −0.03±0.06 W/m2, from which they concluded the CO2 forcing feedback is negative. However, DK12 only consider the ocean heat content (OHC) increase from 0 to 700 meters, neglecting the OHC increase at greater depths. Here we include OHC data to a depth of 2000 meters and demonstrate this data explains the majority of the discrepancies between DK12 and previous works, and that the current global flux imbalance is consistent with continued anthropogenic climate change.
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.2297/abstract
Cowtan 2014
Abstract
Incomplete global coverage is a potential source of bias in global temperature reconstructions if the unsampled regions are not uniformly distributed over the planet's surface. The widely used Hadley Centre–Climatic Reseach Unit Version 4 (HadCRUT4) dataset covers on average about 84% of the globe over recent decades, with the unsampled regions being concentrated at the poles and over Africa. Three existing reconstructions with near-global coverage are examined, each suggesting that HadCRUT4 is subject to bias due to its treatment of unobserved regions.

Two alternative approaches for reconstructing global temperatures are explored, one based on an optimal interpolation algorithm and the other a hybrid method incorporating additional information from the satellite temperature record. The methods are validated on the basis of their skill at reconstructing omitted sets of observations. Both methods provide results superior to excluding the unsampled regions, with the hybrid method showing particular skill around the regions where no observations are available.

Temperature trends are compared for the hybrid global temperature reconstruction and the raw HadCRUT4 data. The widely quoted trend since 1997 in the hybrid global reconstruction is two and a half times greater than the corresponding trend in the coverage-biased HadCRUT4 data. Coverage bias causes a cool bias in recent temperatures relative to the late 1990s, which increases from around 1998 to the present. Trends starting in 1997 or 1998 are particularly biased with respect to the global trend. The issue is exacerbated by the strong El Niño event of 1997–1998, which also tends to suppress trends starting during those years.
This last study I linked is particularly damning to the talking points you're spouting.
 

overgrowem

Well-Known Member
I'm not sure how local it truly is.

I'm a weather nerd and the entire southeastern US had a mild Summer.

The trend is actually flattened.

I do know you have to misrepresent the data to make the warming we have had look impressive.

A couple of degrees Increase is supposed to impress me? And we had a mini ice age 2 centur ________ Yes the south was mild and the winter in the north was long. A short term flattening is of no value, the trend is all that matters. The arctic is just about gone, Ice in Greenland is just about gone, Snook until recently only found in Fl. Atlantic waters are now being caught off N.Carolina. Scientists are regularly upping the melt rate in the antarctic. Couple of degrees should impress you plenty especially if it remains a rising trend.From what I have read your time frame is too short and your geo. range is too small. Climate change should be looked at on no smaller than the hemispheric scale.The data need not be fudged if examined in the right time frame. I believe the last mini ice age was due to an eruption, not a climatic shift, and did correct itself.An atmospheric climate shift offer no such short term remedy
 
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desert dude

Well-Known Member
Desert Dude is still here? Wtf, I thought he got banned months ago.
My offer to be banned along with Unclebuck stands. Ban both of us at the same time. I will honor that ban and never return. Getting rid of UB will make RIU more civilized and losing me will be but a small detriment.
 

SmokeyDan

Well-Known Member
That's just not true. Arctic ice was huge last winter. Greenland has a thick healthy ice cap.

is it smaller than it was 100 years ago a century after an ice age, yes....

The ice age ended.

Don't buy the hype. I started to fall for it then I realized how much money they wanted us to spend.

It's just a scheme for some people to get richer.
 

Padawanbater2

Well-Known Member
Legally that one is true...

rather legally it has been held that people who voluntarily associate don't lose freedom of speech.

What is a corporation other than an association of people engaged in profit seeking. Why should they lose rights?
How do you lose a right you never had?

Corporations are not people because they are corporations
 

Padawanbater2

Well-Known Member
not what was said.
Obama said "I would not have the Justice Department prosecute individuals for medical marijuana, it's not a good use of our resources."


Obama's justice department has raided more legal medical marijuana dispensaries than the Bush and Clinton administration combined

Dude blatantly lied about what he would do during his campaign, then did the complete opposite while president
 

UncleBuck

Well-Known Member
Obama said "I would not have the Justice Department prosecute individuals for medical marijuana, it's not a good use of our resources."


Obama's justice department has raided more legal medical marijuana dispensaries than the Bush and Clinton administration combined

Dude blatantly lied about what he would do during his campaign, then did the complete opposite while president
if dispensaries are individuals, then people are corporations.

he said he would not go after state compliant operations, and hasn't.

he also said he would not give carte blanche for a marijuana industry, but that's basically what has happened here in colorado and up in washington, with more states to soon follow.

if there have been more raids under obama's watch, it has been because there are infinitely more dispensaries. in your own state, you can look at some of the local republican DAs and AGs directly disobeying the directives given to them by the obama administration for those raids, specifically in san diego.

obama barely touched the issue of MMJ, that kind of thing is beneath the president nowadays and is not a political winner for anyone at any political level. but what he did say hinted at leniency, and his actions have exceeded that.

if you doubt the progress for cannabis that has happened under obama, then go smack yourself. it may introduce some sense into you on this one.
 

Padawanbater2

Well-Known Member
if dispensaries are individuals, then people are corporations.
I'm not sure that would hold in a court of law... Dispensaries are not individuals, the individuals in the dispensary are being prosecuted, not the dispensary itself

he said he would not go after state compliant operations, and hasn't.
"State compliant" means not superseding the federal government, which subverts CA initiative Prop. 215

So, in reality, even if a state votes rec. legal, like WA & CO, the Fed says it's illegal. So technically, yes, you're right, but it's a slimy politician tactic used to ensure votes, and I know you're smart enough to know that. "Technically yes, but actually no" is still no when he said 'yes' during his campaign.


he also said he would not give carte blanche for a marijuana industry, but that's basically what has happened here in colorado and up in washington, with more states to soon follow.
Do you have a specific quote you could cite?

if there have been more raids under obama's watch, it has been because there are infinitely more dispensaries.
Do you have any evidence for this claim?

in your own state, you can look at some of the local republican DAs and AGs directly disobeying the directives given to them by the obama administration for those raids, specifically in san diego.
To be clear, what you're saying is that DA's and AG's are going above executive demands?

obama barely touched the issue of MMJ, that kind of thing is beneath the president nowadays and is not a political winner for anyone at any political level. but what he did say hinted at leniency, and his actions have exceeded that.
His actions don't matter when he appoints DEA directors who refuse to answer what is more dangerous, meth/heroin or marijuana. Similar to how he can campaign to the end of the earth about how he disagrees with fast lanes while simultaneously appointing a goddamn Comcast slut as FEC commissioner, his actions speak much louder than his bullshit words. Watch his actions, ignore his words. He's a piece of political shit bought and sold to the highest bidder, just like every president we've had for 7 goddamn decades. You of all people on this forum should recognize and acknowledge that.

if you doubt the progress for cannabis that has happened under obama, then go smack yourself. it may introduce some sense into you on this one.
I don't doubt the progress that has taken place under Obama, but I absolutely don't attribute it to him, either. He's an obstacle in the way of full legality.
 

NLXSK1

Well-Known Member
look up multiyear ice

The Arctic is in big trouble.
Multi-year ice starts with single year ice. We know it is hard to be wrong and even harder to admit it... You have time, things are not going to get better for the global warming crowd.

Also, by saying 'the artic is in trouble' you are assuming the current state of the arctic is the standard which would be assuming alot eh?
 

NLXSK1

Well-Known Member
Could there be new multi year ice every year??

Yes, ice that was created over multiple years melts. Then over multiple years it forms again. This happens as the globe warms and cools. The globe does so daily, seasonally and on other annual cycles.

Do you know how crazy you sound sometimes?
 

abandonconflict

Well-Known Member
Could there be new multi year ice every year??

Yes, ice that was created over multiple years melts. Then over multiple years it forms again. This happens as the globe warms and cools. The globe does so daily, seasonally and on other annual cycles.

Do you know how crazy you sound sometimes?
I'm trying to resist the urge to call you names and insult you.

We are losing multiyear arctic ice, known as pack ice. The ice that melts and comes back every year is becoming a bigger part of the arctic every year. It is just a meter thick surface layer. Loss of multiyear ice is loss of ice cap volume. Try to keep up.
 

SmokeyDan

Well-Known Member
How do you lose a right you never had?

Corporations are not people because they are corporations
They are made up of people.

How can individuals have a right to do something, and in a country with freedom of association, lose that right if they exercise it collectively.

No one is saying corporations are people, they're saying corporations are made up of people who have rights.
 
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