War

The experts are divided, some say the Russians are on the brink of exhaustion, others say Ukraine is losing the war as the Russians roll on with their endless supply of equipment and men. I look at it with common sense and try to take in as many factors and opinions that I can.

I've surmised that at least, America, the UK, Poland, Ukraine and several other NATO members and non members, want the Russian army destroyed or severely disabled. They see this as a opportunity to remove the Russian conventional threat from Europe for a decade or more and lead to liberal democracy spreading to Belarus too. Humiliating Russia is not a factor, the use of nukes is however and a direct confrontation is to be avoided as are attacks on Russia itself, except around Ukraine for military purposes and then confined to rail bridges and troop concentrations.

I don't think they are going to let Ukraine fail in this by not delivering sufficient arms that they can use to make a difference on the battlefield. More ammo, more guns and MLRSs are things they can implement on the battlefield quickly and training on other weapons and combat support systems is ongoing in the west. Things can can change though and they could also be using MLRS to keep Vlad in check, piss us off and the number of MLRS and the range of the rockets could change quickly. According to some reports Vlad was pouring in more T80 tanks and rocket systems, so he must be stripping his cupboard bare.

In a month or so, the Ukrainians should be able to begin offensive operations I figure, depending on how much we are throttling them. The Germans have promised much but delivered little to nothing so far, there seem to be long delays for everything with them. If the Ukrainians can avoid becoming encircled in the east and cause the Russians a lot of damage there, then they could rapidly go on the offensive in other places where the Russians are weak.

Right now is the critical time in the battle when the fighting and losses are at a peak, if the Ukrainians are losing 200 men a day, the attacking Russians are losing a lot more. The Ukrainians can replace their loses and have been training new regiments for 3 months with waiting lists of volunteers. If we supply them with artillery, drones and MLRSs, they should be able to do the job, better and more weapons equals less of their blood though. So I don't think we are gonna leave the Ukrainians hanging out to dry or stab them in the back. Vlad thinks he can win, must win and is throwing far more into the gamble than it is wise to do so, 85% of his total ground combat power. Quite a bit of his equipment is destroyed already and more might be either destroyed or trapped and captured. I think now the Ukrainians are picking off their artillery, as the Russians shoot up the cities and towns, the Ukrainians are using counter battery radars to take out their guns. Over time they can whittle the number of enemy guns and crews down, since they will be the biggest threat when offensive operations begin.

I think the tide might turn for the Ukrainians into the summer but at the moment the Russians have the firepower, even if it is '70's era equipment. Heck, less capable eqquipment killed a lot of people in the previous wars. The british did not think much of the idea of automatic rifles, they thought it a waste of ammo and a soldier could do better with a riffle shooting a single shot at a time. Well they did come along in their thinking. Even if the Russians were as inept as we would like as long as they can send a barrage of shells in the air some are going to hit their mark. And the Ukrainians will have to concentrate their power to counteract the Russians. What the Russians want is to encircle the Ukrainians and starve them out as they did in Mariupol. If they can achieve this they will have a run of the place and they could advance to Odessa. The Russians will eventually go all in if they can not achieve their goals as they have burned their bridges, and are not looking back. If need be they will elevate the "Special Operation" to a real war. Throw all their people into the fire. But as long as they can take the Donbas they can tell their people they are victorious. If they do not make it to Odessa then they will do another special operation in a few years. But better to get it done now rather than give Ukraine to collect the firepower that could repulse the Russians in the future.

printer said:

I think the tide might turn for the Ukrainians into the summer but at the moment the Russians have the firepower, even if it is '70's era equipment. Heck, less capable eqquipment killed a lot of people in the previous wars. The british did not think much of the idea of automatic rifles, they thought it a waste of ammo and a soldier could do better with a riffle shooting a single shot at a time. Well they did come along in their thinking. Even if the Russians were as inept as we would like as long as they can send a barrage of shells in the air some are going to hit their mark. And the Ukrainians will have to concentrate their power to counteract the Russians. What the Russians want is to encircle the Ukrainians and starve them out as they did in Mariupol. If they can achieve this they will have a run of the place and they could advance to Odessa. The Russians will eventually go all in if they can not achieve their goals as they have burned their bridges, and are not looking back. If need be they will elevate the "Special Operation" to a real war. Throw all their people into the fire. But as long as they can take the Donbas they can tell their people they are victorious. If they do not make it to Odessa then they will do another special operation in a few years. But better to get it done now rather than give Ukraine to collect the firepower that could repulse the Russians in the future.

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All I can say is I hope it is a clever plan to suck Vlad's forces in and destroy them, but they appear to be cutting it a bit too close from the reports I've been seeing. Make it appear you are weak when in fact you are strong and getting stronger by the week, could be part of a deception plan and we by necessity would have to be deceived too about the scale of help we are giving. The Russians know we are giving, but I figure their intelligence is off their game too with lot's of recent disruption, when it comes to knowing how much we are giving and when, what we are giving will become apparent soon enough.

Removing Vlad's army and it's irreplaceable equipment from threatening anybody is a serous temptation to a lot of serious people. It will change the entire geopolitical situation in the region and has huge implications on many fronts for many countries. Vlad stuck his neck out a long way and we have the means to chop the fucking thing off and are in the process of doing so.

My dog in the fight is the spread and strengthening of liberal democracy and the diminishment of imperialism driven by racism, ethic nationalism and fascism. The same basic fight between fascism and liberal democracy is happening in America internally, only in the form of a cold civil war. Liberal democracy tends to trend in one direction, the inclusion of more kinds of people into society and freedom under the rule of law with independent courts and democratically elected governments.

300 Wagner Group mercenaries eliminated in Luhansk region, only one survived. The 108th day of war
74,594 views Jun 11, 2022 The Ukrainian armed forces eliminated a military base with Wagner Group mercenaries in the Luhansk region. According to preliminary information, there could have been up to 300 members. Only one survived. The fiercest battles are now underway in the area of Lysychansk and Severodonetsk. More updates on the 108th day of war – in our story.

Ukraine War: Russia 'using everything at its disposal'
93,686 views Jun 11, 2022 Russian missiles are being diverted from anti-sea usage to anti-land as they pull out all the stops to achieve victory. Severodonetsk, one of the last remaining parts of Luhansk still under Ukrainian control, has been severely contested in recent weeks.

Roger A. Shrubber said:

i just can't believe putin thinks NATO or most of the rest of the world is just going to sit by passively and watch him rape and pillage his way back to empire...the world breathed a huge sigh of relief when the old empire crumbled, and there is no fucking way Europe and the west are going to let it rise again, especially with a power mad kleptocrat like putin in charge of it

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It's the size of his country- it's his phallic symbol- he needs to look in the mirror but I know he can't hold it still because those neuro meds that he's taking have stopped working along with that are hallucinations..that worries me.

DIY-HP-LED said:

Ukraine War: Russia 'using everything at its disposal'
93,686 views Jun 11, 2022 Russian missiles are being diverted from anti-sea usage to anti-land as they pull out all the stops to achieve victory. Severodonetsk, one of the last remaining parts of Luhansk still under Ukrainian control, has been severely contested in recent weeks.

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i think russia has just about shot it's wad...this is a last ditch effort to regain control, and i don't think they have what it takes, as long as the Ukrainians play it smart. all they have to do is keep retreating and destroying russian artillery at maximum range of their new weapons systems. it makes absolutely no difference how much territory the russians take now, they won't be able to hold it once their artillery ammo runs out, and they're expending it at an enormous rate. they have long, easy to attack supply lines, without which their artillery and armored vehicles grind to a halt.
the bottom line is, there is no way for them to hold any territory they seize for any period of time. they do not have the man power to run a counter insurgency campaign, they will need the residents of any areas they seize to be on board with them, and that just ain't going to happen, and the whole time, they will be losing men and materials to insurgents, insurgents with very good gear and the know how and will to use it

Roger A. Shrubber said:

i think russia has just about shot it's wad...this is a last ditch effort to regain control, and i don't think they have what it takes, as long as the Ukrainians play it smart. all they have to do is keep retreating and destroying russian artillery at maximum range of their new weapons systems. it makes absolutely no difference how much territory the russians take now, they won't be able to hold it once their artillery ammo runs out, and they're expending it at an enormous rate. they have long, easy to attack supply lines, without which their artillery and armored vehicles grind to a halt.
the bottom line is, there is no way for them to hold any territory they seize for any period of time. they do not have the man power to run a counter insurgency campaign, they will need the residents of any areas they seize to be on board with them, and that just ain't going to happen, and the whole time, they will be losing men and materials to insurgents, insurgents with very good gear and the know how and will to use it

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They are shooting up towns and villages and basically tilling the soil for Russian advances, before or when the shit starts the Ukrainians retreat back to secondary positions. Anybody left on the front lines is inside a bunker dug into the side of the trench during the barrage, only to pop out during the assault when the Russians are too close to use artillery.

Insurgents are an issue, they only seem to report on special forces operations, who get support from the locals. I imagine it is to avoid retaliation on the civilians, if special forces infiltrated behind their lines do it. There is NFW they can guard all the roads and rail lines they use from IED and mine attack behind their lines, they are spread pretty thin in most places behind their front. All the leaves are out, there is plenty of cover in high summer and camping out in the woods for weeks at a time is not an issue for special forces or local guerillas. Their NATO instructors were experts in IEDs so I imagine they passed some practical tips along. We don't hear a lot, but I have a feeling IEDs are being used by the Ukrainians a lot more than they were in Afghanistan. We do see Russians killed and injured using small commercial drones dropping simple bombs on their positions, since they record it on video.

It is all taking a toll in Russians and their equipment, anti tank missiles, drones, attacks on logistics and long range artillery. We just need to give the Ukrainians enough arms and ammo to do the job of breaking Vlad's army, once broken it can be destroyed or captured. If they can pull it off, Russia will be practically defenseless for a decade in terms of conventional combat power. Nuclear threats might be useful for defense, but are not that useful for projecting hard power onto non nuclear neighbors, for that you need professional troops and equipment, not obsolete junk and society's dregs.

The first German weapons will be delivered to Ukraine on June 22
Armaments from Germany, sent to Ukraine as military aid, will arrive in the country on June 22, Ukrainian Ambassador to Germany Andriy Melnyk said. It is specified that Berlin will supply seven howitzers to Kyiv. Mr. Melnik also said that the promises of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz to allocate €2 billion worth of military assistance to Kiev were “only a statement.”

“The seven self-propelled howitzers that will be handed over to us, we will receive these systems around June 22; and self-propelled anti-aircraft systems, the so-called "Cheetahs". This is also an old weapon - 30 units: 15 Gepards - by the end of July, another 15 - by the end of August, ”Mr. Melnik said in an interview with the Ukrainian edition of NV (quoted by RIA Novosti ). According to him, of all the deliveries previously announced by the German government, only howitzers and self-propelled anti-aircraft guns (ZSU) will actually be sent.

Andriy Melnyk also said that almost all the supplies that Ukraine has received from Berlin so far have been "from the warehouses of the Bundeswehr." Andriy Melnyk also said that out of the €2 billion aid announced earlier, the German authorities "have not spent anything."

According to the Ukrainian ambassador, the German government has been blocking the delivery of 100 units of the German Marder infantry fighting vehicle (BMP) to Kyiv for six weeks under various pretexts. He also cited the words of the State Secretary of the German Defense Ministry, Simtje Moeller, that there is an agreement at the level of NATO member countries that heavy weapons, infantry fighting vehicles and Western-made tanks will not be delivered to Ukraine for the time being.

In May, Die Wel t reported that German Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht was providing Ukraine with incorrect information about military assistance. According to the publication, at first in Germany they said that Ukraine would receive German self-propelled guns (ZSU) Gepard directly from the German federal government. However, later it turned out that Ukraine needed to order weapons on its own, about which it was not warned.

On May 10, during a visit to Kiev, German Foreign Minister Annalena Berbock announced plans to supply Ukraine with modern tanks and howitzers. On May 3, Die Welt wrote that the German government would send seven Panzerhaubitze 2000 (PzH 2000) howitzers from the Bundeswehr reserves to Ukraine.

Ukrainian militants demanded to be released from the Azot plant with hostages

Ukrainian militants, blocked at the Severodonetsk Azot plant, demand to be released to Lisichansk along with the hostages, a source in power structures close to the course of negotiations told RIA Novosti.

According to him, about three hundred militants now remain at the plant.

"They entered into negotiations with us, their condition was to release them to neighboring Lisichansk along with civilian hostages. Of course, this does not suit us," the agency's interlocutor said. All ways from the factory for militants are cut off, he stressed.

"Communication with them has been established, negotiations will apparently continue," the source added, noting that there are more than a thousand civilians in Azot's bomb shelters, including plant workers, their families and residents of neighboring neighborhoods.

Earlier, LPR Ambassador to Russia Rodion Miroshnik spoke about such negotiations with Ukrainian nationalists . According to him, the demands of the militants are unacceptable, but if they release the hostages and surrender, they are guaranteed life.

Fights for Severodonetsk have been going on since the beginning of May. Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced this week that residential areas of the city have been completely liberated. Fighting continues in the industrial zone of the Azot plant.

Turkey approves UN plan to transport grain from Black Sea ports
The UN plan for the transportation of grain from the Black Sea ports is the most correct, said Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu.

The UN has repeatedly stated the threat of a food crisis due to a shortage of grain, the West has accused Russia of opposing the supply of Ukrainian grain to world markets - Moscow categorically rejected such accusations. At the same time, the Kiev authorities themselves have created many obstacles to the export of grain for export: in addition to the now revealed arson of grain in the Mariupol port, Ukrainian troops have mined the Black Sea , which does not allow grain to be transported to world markets by ships. Russian President Vladimir Putin said that problems with the export of grain from Ukraine does not exist and Russia does not prevent it. If Ukraine clears the ports of mines, ships with grain will be able to leave without any problems, he said.

"I brought to the attention of (Russian Foreign Minister Sergei) Lavrov the idea that the UN plan (on the transportation of grain from the ports of Ukraine) is the most correct. The details of the plan should be discussed by the parties. We emphasized the readiness of the Turkish side to organize a quadripartite meeting in the UN format "Turkey-Ukraine-RF. This is ultimately a UN initiative," the minister said at a press conference following talks with his Czech counterpart Jan Lipavsky.

Cavusoglu stressed that the removal of barriers to exports from the Black Sea is of vital importance for underdeveloped countries.

"Our position was stated very clearly. We are waiting for a response from the Russian side, both on the issue of holding the meeting and other details. Turkey will continue to focus on this issue," the Turkish minister said.

And that was your Moscow Minute.

printer said:

“The seven self-propelled howitzers that will be handed over to us, we will receive these systems around June 22;

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Did they also announce the location and route they would use to the front? I expected to see the second coming of Jesus, before I saw any German equipment in Ukraine. I guess the heat must be on the square heads, perhaps someone lit a fire under their asses.

Military situation in Severodonetsk | Military Mind | TVP World
5,695 views Jun 11, 2022 Host Jonasz Rewiński takes a closer look at military situation in Severodonetsk. #TVPWorld Bringing you all the latest daily news and updates, TVP World is Poland's first English-language channel where you can find world news as seen from the Polish perspective and the latest news from the CEE region. Follow us on Twitter, Facebook, Instagram.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/05/17/explainer-is-russia-running-low-on-missiles-a77704

https://breakingdefense.com/2022/05/russian-attempts-to-restock-its-military-may-be-doomed-to-failure/

they still have stockpiles of old stuff, but what percentage of it is going to work? and i'm having serious trouble finding any numbers on how many artillery shells they have. missile numbers were slightly easier to find, but i can find no hard reference on the number of howitzer, tank, cannon rounds they have on hand, and how many they could produce on their own. each round takes bags of powder, how much powder do they have, or can produce? those are finite numbers, i just don't know what they are...but they're using them up, w/e the upper limit is

Poland is one of those places putting heat on Germany and if America gives them those 500 MLRS, they will want to give some to Ukraine and will be asking Uncle Sam to do it. Poland has taken a very hard line on Russia and are pretty tight with Ukraine.
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Where's German military aid? | Ray Wojcik | TVP World
5,578 views Jun 11, 2022 Our host and his guest are in search of German military aid. According to Scholz Germany has been giving military aid to Ukraine more intensely than almost anybody else. #TVPWorld

Roger A. Shrubber said:

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/05/17/explainer-is-russia-running-low-on-missiles-a77704

https://breakingdefense.com/2022/05/russian-attempts-to-restock-its-military-may-be-doomed-to-failure/

they still have stockpiles of old stuff, but what percentage of it is going to work? and i'm having serious trouble finding any numbers on how many artillery shells they have. missile numbers were slightly easier to find, but i can find no hard reference on the number of howitzer, tank, cannon rounds they have on hand, and how many they could produce on their own. each round takes bags of powder, how much powder do they have, or can produce? those are finite numbers, i just don't know what they are...but they're using them up, w/e the upper limit is

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If we are having logistics issues, they are having them too and the supply is not infinite, the Russians have been using theirs on real-estate and the Ukrainians on the Russians and now on their guns and crews as they tear up the country side, they will be torn up themselves. Mobile artillery works close to the lines sometimes and the French Caesar system can fire a half dozen rounds and be gone in a couple of minutes. That and other long range artillery is gonna be hitting guns and other shit in the Russian rear. I heard one Ukrainian 155 M777 crew took out 80 Russian guns, or so they claim. The Russians have lot's of guns, most 152mm and some 203 mm really long range shit that switchblades or other drones can reach, so can the MLRS. It makes sense to shoot up the Russian guns while they are shooting up the towns and villages, the Russians are low on drones and the Ukrainians have an abundance, along with counter battery radars.

More Polish updates, apparently the Norwegian government sent 22 M109 Paladin mobile howitzers to Ukraine without fanfare and they are already in use. They could buy a thousand more to replace them from Uncle Sam with the pocket change from their sovereign wealth fund's annual interest.
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Roger A. Shrubber said:

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/05/17/explainer-is-russia-running-low-on-missiles-a77704

https://breakingdefense.com/2022/05/russian-attempts-to-restock-its-military-may-be-doomed-to-failure/

they still have stockpiles of old stuff, but what percentage of it is going to work? and i'm having serious trouble finding any numbers on how many artillery shells they have. missile numbers were slightly easier to find, but i can find no hard reference on the number of howitzer, tank, cannon rounds they have on hand, and how many they could produce on their own. each round takes bags of powder, how much powder do they have, or can produce? those are finite numbers, i just don't know what they are...but they're using them up, w/e the upper limit is

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Yeah but once a peace deal is done there will be no need to invade anyone for a while. Not like anyone will be invading Russia. So if they end up with 5% of what they started with, who cares?

DIY-HP-LED said:

I heard one Ukrainian 155 M777 crew took out 80 Russian guns, or so they claim. The Russians have lot's of guns, most 152mm and some 203 mm really long range shit that switchblades or other drones can reach, so can the MLRS. It makes sense to shoot up the Russian guns while they are shooting up the towns and villages, the Russians are low on drones and the Ukrainians have an abundance, along with counter battery radars.

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So the Ukrainians are slow to pick up the fact that they can win the war if they follow your thoughts? Why are they not doing it then?

printer said:

So the Ukrainians are slow to pick up the fact that they can win the war if they follow your thoughts? Why are they not doing it then?

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They only had the capability to shoot up the Russian guns recently and still have limited supplies. The Ukrainians are not shooting at real-estate, but most of the Russian guns are pumping out the shells at towns and suspected Ukrainian dug in positions. The Ukrainians are not wasting ammo like the Russians are, they are making it count, now more than ever. They will choose the most logical targets for achieving their objective and when they can reach them, the Russian guns are a logical target along with anything that supports them. Recently deployed long range artillery, counter battery radars and anti drone equipment and drones too, now make this possible. MLRS will reach far into the rear of BTGs and destroy C&C, logistics and fuel for the forward elements. One or two MLRS reloads should do the job of taking out the rear of a Russian BTG, or force them back so much they are ineffective and little help to the fighting front.

They have more training, experience and brains than I do and know their country and terrain best. Everything is secret, so we are just speculating on available information and that seems to be coming from western sources. The Ukrainians might dissemble, but they have a lot of allied press around, so lies are a problem, strategic deception for military purposes is expected, can be explained and understood by the public.

printer said:

Yeah but once a peace deal is done there will be no need to invade anyone for a while. Not like anyone will be invading Russia. So if they end up with 5% of what they started with, who cares?

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well, putin is already talking about new invasions...i have no fucking idea where he plans to get the men, weapons, and financing, but he's talking about it...
and i was talking about how much ammo does russia have, and how long will it be before they run out...or if they will run out

Roger A. Shrubber said:

well, putin is already talking about new invasions...i have no fucking idea where he plans to get the men, weapons, and financing, but he's talking about it...
and i was talking about how much ammo does russia have, and how long will it be before they run out...or if they will run out

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They are pinned in Ukraine by hubris and it would be unwise not to finish the fuckers off now that their necks are stuck out so far. We can be careful about how we do it and slowly strangle the fuckers and then deliver the coup de grâce when ready. The destruction of this army and it's equipment is about the only thing that will provide long term security for Ukraine and eastern Europe. Even if trouble has to be caused in Belarus and other neighbors to finish off the remnants of the Russian army, trouble in Belarus would be desirable anyway. Trapping as much equipment as possible with a blown bridge at Kerch and destroyed fuel logistics in the east would be helpful too, if they can't move it, they will abandon it or destroy it.