The renewable energy changes and policy

We are at the beginning of an energy evolution/revolution and recent studies have shown we can do it with renewables and in particular solar PV along with battery storage. These international and academic studies are what governments base policy and projections on and going green is now a matter of economics and geopolitics. The fight is on over solar panels, EVs and batteries with China in the lead and North America playing catch up with Biden's policy moves. Mexico could be China's back door into America and both American and Chinese manufacturing are migrating there, they are part of free trade and Uncle Sam is concerned. The rest of the world are buying Chinese solar panels, but we have tariffs of over 250% on them or soon will, but the prices of solar panels are expected to drop even further in the next couple of years. Solar is the cheapest form of energy production even for Canada and it will simply out compete fossil fuels on costs.

Here is Tony Seba, a guy who makes me look like a pessimist, but it is his business to study such things and he has been right in his projections several times before. The next decade or two will be transformative in several ways and he outlines how change happens and the time frames involved. There is a confluence of new technologies that is disrupting the old value chains of power generation and fossil fuels. When was the last time you as a consumer or small business owner could compete with a utility for power or kiss the oil company's goodbye for transportation? This is decentralizing and individually empowering, and the benefits go to more than the one percent. It's about money and power folks, green is good, but now green means money and geopolitics! As he says cost curves are like gravity and new technology follows an S curve and we are on bottom of the steep part of one now.

I posted this to the climate change thread before, but figure how we are dealing with climate change should have its own thread, the economic and geopolitical implications are enormous, and it will be in our faces soon enough. There is also technical and political news breaking in this area constantly as companies and countries vie for a piece of the future.


"The Great Transformation" - TAQA 20th Anniversary Celebration / Dhahran, Saudi Arabia [16 Oct 2023]

An article in the Financial Times. An interesting detailed free article about the geopolitical and economic fight over EVs, and batteries.


China’s electric vehicle dominance presents a challenge to the west

Companies such as BYD and Nio are targeting overseas markets, leaving governments torn between encouraging greater take-up and protecting domestic manufacturers


"The competitive factor, as in Europe, is cost. The lower-price segment of the auto market has largely been abandoned by the “Detroit Three” of General Motors, Ford and Chrysler-owner Stellantis, who have concentrated instead on pick-ups and sports utility vehicles.

Dunne notes that the average price of a new car in the US this year is about $48,000. “Imagine [Chinese automakers] come in with a $20,000 product. The current tariff of 25 per cent knocks it up to $25,000 or $26,000. They are still in a very good position.”



"BYD exported nearly 250,000 cars last year and — even without the US or European markets — management have told investors they believe they can increase that by more than tenfold over the coming years.

“China still builds and buys more EVs than the rest of the world combined,” says Dunne. “Chinese EV makers are sitting on enough capacity to supply 75 per cent of global EV demand. That should keep western automakers awake at night.”

DIY-HP-LED said:

An article in the Financial Times. An interesting detailed free article about the geopolitical and economic fight over EVs, and batteries.

China’s electric vehicle dominance presents a challenge to the west

Companies such as BYD and Nio are targeting overseas markets, leaving governments torn between encouraging greater take-up and protecting domestic manufacturers

www.ft.com

China’s electric vehicle dominance presents a challenge to the west

Companies such as BYD and Nio are targeting overseas markets, leaving governments torn between encouraging greater take-up and protecting domestic manufacturers


"The competitive factor, as in Europe, is cost. The lower-price segment of the auto market has largely been abandoned by the “Detroit Three” of General Motors, Ford and Chrysler-owner Stellantis, who have concentrated instead on pick-ups and sports utility vehicles.

Dunne notes that the average price of a new car in the US this year is about $48,000. “Imagine [Chinese automakers] come in with a $20,000 product. The current tariff of 25 per cent knocks it up to $25,000 or $26,000. They are still in a very good position.”



"BYD exported nearly 250,000 cars last year and — even without the US or European markets — management have told investors they believe they can increase that by more than tenfold over the coming years.

“China still builds and buys more EVs than the rest of the world combined,” says Dunne. “Chinese EV makers are sitting on enough capacity to supply 75 per cent of global EV demand. That should keep western automakers awake at night.”

Click to expand...

In the tech industry, we have a saying,

First to lead is first to bleed.

Battery tech is changing so fast that first movers who invest heavily in current tech will go bust. A 50 year plan works for stable and developed tech, like roads, bridges, irrigation and growing wheat.

Are semiconductors or EV on that list?

Fogdog said:

In the tech industry, we have a saying,

First to lead is first to bleed.

Battery tech is changing so fast that first movers who invest heavily in current tech will go bust. A 50 year plan works for stable and developed tech, like roads, bridges, irrigation and growing wheat.

Are semiconductors or EV on that list?

Click to expand...

Looking at the amount of innovation in batteries in America and elsewhere, betting on the battery market is risky business. The Chinese had a long-term plan to dominate solar, batteries and EVs and can compete on their domestic mass market alone, same mass production advantage as America had at one time. They are presenting a challenge and competition, and we must meet it for a piece of the future. Their advantage in labor cost is almost gone and automation will play an increasing roll moving forward. Planning too specifically for the long term is probably a mistake, but planning for general trends might be a different matter.

Have a look at the chart from the Financial Times article above. Technological adoption almost always follows an S curve, but the projections for America are almost linear. According to this in a couple of years 40% or more of new cars on the road in Europe and China will be EVs by 2025, by 2030 it will be nearly 100% for Europe and 80% for China. America should have over a 40% market penetration rate in 2030 and the remaining ICE vehicles on the road could be powered by domestic supplies only. Think the world petroleum markets will be severely disrupted in about 5 years? What will happen to their value chain starting at the gas stations who have the thinnest profit margins.

When EV adoption rates get high enough in America, will the US ban the import of oil? America has a lot of domestic supply and why buy somewhere else when they and everybody else will be selling their oil while they still can in a panic. Demand for most petroleum should dry up by 2035, so sell it while you can or leave it in the ground. The effects of the transition will be anticipated by suppliers and markets, and it will affect future pricing before the EVs even hit the road. The EU might not ban the importation of oil and will still have lots of ICE cars on the road in 2030, but they do have some limited domestic supply and there is plenty in Ukraine. It looks like Russia's gas and oil will be left in the ground, by the time they get to sell any the market will have dried up, especially in Europe and China and capital investment should be hard to come by. They will face the same issues with fossil fuel power generation because solar is now cheaper and expected to get much cheaper along with battery storage.

You want solutions to climate change? This is what it looks like, we must put them out of business by disrupting their value chain with cheaper new technological alternatives.

DIY-HP-LED said:

An article in the Financial Times. An interesting detailed free article about the geopolitical and economic fight over EVs, and batteries.

China’s electric vehicle dominance presents a challenge to the west

Companies such as BYD and Nio are targeting overseas markets, leaving governments torn between encouraging greater take-up and protecting domestic manufacturers

www.ft.com

China’s electric vehicle dominance presents a challenge to the west

Companies such as BYD and Nio are targeting overseas markets, leaving governments torn between encouraging greater take-up and protecting domestic manufacturers


"The competitive factor, as in Europe, is cost. The lower-price segment of the auto market has largely been abandoned by the “Detroit Three” of General Motors, Ford and Chrysler-owner Stellantis, who have concentrated instead on pick-ups and sports utility vehicles.

Dunne notes that the average price of a new car in the US this year is about $48,000. “Imagine [Chinese automakers] come in with a $20,000 product. The current tariff of 25 per cent knocks it up to $25,000 or $26,000. They are still in a very good position.”



"BYD exported nearly 250,000 cars last year and — even without the US or European markets — management have told investors they believe they can increase that by more than tenfold over the coming years.

“China still builds and buys more EVs than the rest of the world combined,” says Dunne. “Chinese EV makers are sitting on enough capacity to supply 75 per cent of global EV demand. That should keep western automakers awake at night.”

Click to expand...

and yet, subscription wall.

cannabineer said:

and yet, subscription wall.

Click to expand...

It was free for me, a couple of times...

I got there through google news, so google the title.

Drop That Sound said:

Hemp Batteries - Fact, Fad, or Fiction? A Complete Guide - Sustainable Wave

Dive deep into the world of "Hemp Batteries - Fact, Fad, or Fiction? A Complete Guide" and discover if hemp batteries are truly the renewable energy saviors they're painted to be.

sustainablewave.com

Click to expand...

They will have a lot of competition, things are gonna be hot in the battery market for a decade or two and big companies are betting the farm on batteries EVs and solar, it's now about the green of money.

DIY-HP-LED said:

Looking at the amount of innovation in batteries in America and elsewhere, betting on the battery market is risky business. The Chinese had a long-term plan to dominate solar, batteries and EVs and can compete on their domestic mass market alone, same mass production advantage as America had at one time. They are presenting a challenge and competition, and we must meet it for a piece of the future. Their advantage in labor cost is almost gone and automation will play an increasing roll moving forward. Planning too specifically for the long term is probably a mistake, but planning for general trends might be a different matter.

Click to expand...

I think the Chinese government's need for control will stifle the kind of innovation it needs to compete in the rapidly changing field of energy storage. I don't have anything specific to point at other than the US has neglected this sector and let a lot of the tech we develop migrate (sold, given and stolen) to China for commercialization. Not any more. We'll see if they can keep up, now that the US and its Western partners have decided to focus on developing their own capabilities in this sector.

I have mad respect for the Chinese scientists and innovators and have been privileged to work next to many throughout my career in the US. But authoritarian societies and governments value control above all else. They control their innovators to death.

Fogdog said:

I think the Chinese government's need for control will stifle the kind of innovation it needs to compete in the rapidly changing field of energy storage. I don't have anything specific to point at other than the US has neglected this sector and let a lot of the tech we develop migrate (sold, given and stolen) to China for commercialization. Not any more. We'll see if they can keep up, now that the US and its Western partners have decided to focus on developing their own capabilities in this sector.

I have mad respect for the Chinese scientists and innovators and have been privileged to work next to many throughout my career in the US. But authoritarian societies and governments value control above all else. They control their innovators to death.

Click to expand...

The green transition will be a struggle for money and power on several technological fronts, from chips to batteries and solar. Anybody can make an EV, the battery is the key. Demographic changes in China and a sudden exodus of western investment and companies are affecting their economy. They anticipated the squeeze to go green and recent events in Europe have accelerated their desire to go green. There have been several reports issued recently about the cost of solar and batteries that have changed the equation for many governments. For a place like Europe, it means complete energy independence and Chinese EVs and solar are very attractive to them. If we allow their factories here, we can use their technology and gain their expertise, just as they do, any trouble with them we take their battery and EV factories any way. Solar panels last 25 to 30 years, so there is a lot of lead time if we are using a lot of them, and trouble arises.

I think America will surpass them on battery technology, solar and EVs and especially on new, better and cleaner lithium extraction methods. America also has lots of raw materials, lithium and rare earths, innovation is happening at all levels from extraction to batteries with nano materials playing an increasing roll. They will bring the precision of the chip world to batteries and solar eventually with mass produced nano structures for batteries and catalysts.

We could see geothermal added to the mix, especially in places like Canada. If deep geothermal is developed, then old fossil fuel thermal power plants can be used, just replace the boilers with heat exchangers, all the power grid infrastructure and steam turbine generators are already in place. That is the plan of an American company Quase energy, still they like everybody else including wind will need to compete with solar and battery storage. Perhaps old thermal plants should be mothballed and not torn down until the results of their tests come in over the next couple of years. Oil companies are interested so things could take off fast for deep geothermal with their capitol and expertise.


Geothermal Energy: How Big is the Potential?

There is a lot of energy right under our feet, a relic from Earth's hot past as a ball of plasma. But how much can geothermal energy realistically do for us? What technologies are currently being pursued, what are the risks, and is it even carbon neutral? In this video we have collected all the relevant facts and numbers for you.

DIY-HP-LED said:

We could see geothermal added to the mix, especially in places like Canada. If deep geothermal is developed, then old fossil fuel thermal power plants can be used, just replace the boilers with heat exchangers, all the power grid infrastructure and steam turbine generators are already in place. That is the plan of an American company Quase energy, still they like everybody else including wind will need to compete with solar and battery storage. Perhaps old thermal plants should be mothballed and not torn down until the results of their tests come in over the next couple of years. Oil companies are interested so things could take off fast for deep geothermal with their capitol and expertise.

Geothermal Energy: How Big is the Potential?

There is a lot of energy right under our feet, a relic from Earth's hot past as a ball of plasma. But how much can geothermal energy realistically do for us? What technologies are currently being pursued, what are the risks, and is it even carbon neutral? In this video we have collected all the relevant facts and numbers for you.

Click to expand...

What you said in your post is not what was said in the vid. Most geothermal well technology is really just experimental research. I support research but the things you talked about are very unlikely to happen.

Fogdog said:

What you said in your post is not what was said in the vid. Most geothermal well technology is really just experimental research. I support research but the things you talked about are very unlikely to happen.

Click to expand...

I think solar will simply out compete it before it ever gets off the ground, or under it. However, several projects are about to be tested over the next couple of years as lots of thermal plants are due to shut down. She gives an unbiased assessment of the prospects for geothermal, and it looks like it could be an also ran like a lot of other technologies. It has better short-term prospects than fusion IMO and it is the more shorter-term things we should be concerned about. The market decides these things and competition promises to be fierce and I suspect even wind power could be a victim of solar.

DIY-HP-LED said:

I think solar will simply out compete it before it ever gets off the ground, or under it. However, several projects are about to be tested over the next couple of years as lots of thermal plants are due to shut down. She gives an unbiased assessment of the prospects for geothermal, and it looks like it could be an also ran like a lot of other technologies. It has better short-term prospects than fusion IMO and it is the more shorter-term things we should be concerned about. The market decides these things and competition promises to be fierce and I suspect even wind power could be a victim of solar.

Click to expand...

What you think is not what was said in the vid you posted. There is good reason to fund experimental projects looking for ways to use geo energy, just not good reason to use the current tech beyond it's current deployment.

8% of total world energy supplies is not insignificant. If we can get to that level safely using the current tech, we should do it.

Fogdog said:

What you said in your post is not what was said in the vid. Most geothermal well technology is really just experimental research. I support research but the things you talked about are very unlikely to happen.

Click to expand...

It is the cost curve for geothermal, it has increased, not dropped, the only way out I see if quase's millimeter gyrotron process works and only then if they can repurpose old thermal plants.

DIY-HP-LED said:

… The market decides these things

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The market is prone to manipulation.

The example I remember is about video formats. Beta is better engineering, but VHS was aggressively marketed. Not a lot of beta in garage sales.

Fogdog said:

What you think is not what was said in the vid you posted. There is good reason to fund experimental projects looking for ways to use geo energy, just not good reason to use the current tech beyond it's current deployment.

8% of total world energy supplies is not insignificant. If we can get to that level safely using the current tech, we should do it.

Click to expand...

We will end up doing what is economical, accountants rule the world.

DIY-HP-LED said:

It is the cost curve for geothermal, it has increased, not dropped, the only way out I see if quase's millimeter gyrotron process works and only then if they can repurpose old thermal plants.

Click to expand...

Even if their process hits every r&d mark, it may not be economical. They need to demonstrate that the deep wells keep operating at high power for years. Iirc making a single borehole uses monstrous amounts of energy. I have doubts about energy in vs. out.