Pandemic 2020

Booster data

A timely, objective and well written status report summarizing we know about the Omicron variant at this early stage. Most of the information shown below has already been shared by Capn (thanks Morgan). The summary below pulls together the various threads of information into a single report. Also the writer provides their own insight about some early trends that point to the direction we will be headed very soon.

Omicron is going to clobber communities with low vaccination rates.


Omicron: We're getting (some) answers

Our first Omicron lab study was released today. A group of South African scientists, led by Dr. Alex Sigal, mixed a live virus with blood samples of 6 people who had 2 doses of Pfizer. They also mixed the virus with blood samples of 6 people with the 2-dose series and a previous infection. (South Africa has not authorized boosters yet, but this is a good proxy).

What did they find? (charts can be found in the article, link above)

1. The virus is using the same door into our cells (called ACE2 receptors) as before. This is very good news because it means our tools (like vaccines) are still useful. If the virus found a different door, this may not have been the case.
2. The virus is making a smarter key to that door. Panel B in the figure below highlights the main finding of this paper:
   • Among people with the 2-dose Pfizer series (orange dots), neutralizing antibodies took a significant hit —40 fold reduction— with Omicron compared to the original virus. This is far higher than we’ve seen with any previous variants of concern (Delta had a 5 fold decrease; Beta had a 8 fold decrease). But, honestly, Omicron’s decrease is not as bad as some expected.
   • Among people with the 2-dose series + previous infection (green dots), neutralizing antibodies took a hit from Omicron but are still relatively high.

This means we’re going to see an increase in breakthrough cases, especially among those with only the primary series. But this study gives me great hope that our boosters will help protect against Omicron.

Does Omicron increase transmissibility?

Cases continue to exponentially increase in South Africa. Their 7-day average passed 10,000 yesterday for the fourth time during this pandemic. Cases also continues to climb in the epicenter of Gauteng too. (charts can be found in the article)

The R(t)—a measure of contagiousness— in South Africa is holding steady at an incredibly high rate: R(t)= 2-3.

Mathematical models estimated an R(t) of 3.47 in the UK right now. This is likely an overestimation, but even the best case scenario (i.e. lower bound) of the R(t) is concerning at 2.75. This tells us that high levels of Delta and/or immunity are not stopping Omicron in the UK. And it probably won’t stop Omicron in the United States either. We need to continue to watch this, but this is not a great start at all.

Does Omicron increase severity (hospitalization or death)?

Omicron is causing a lot of infection very quickly across different landscapes. But infection is very different than severe disease or death. So, what’s happening to people that do get infected?

In Gauteng, hospitalization of COVID19 cases in South Africa’s epicenter is increasing exponentially. And it looks like it’s accelerating at the same rate as previous

But a report from one of these hospitals provided more context about individual hospitalizations over the weekend. Among a sample of 42 COVID patients in the hospital on Dec. 2, most were hospitalized “with COVID19” not “for COVID19.” Among the 42 patients, 9 (21%) had a diagnosis of COVID19 pneumonia. Among the 9 pneumonia patients, 8 were unvaccinated and 1 was a child. There were 4 patients in high care and 1 in the ICU.

Bottom Line

There’s a good chance Omicron will outcompete Delta in the United States. This coupled this with the high unvaccinated rate and lab data showing partial vaccine immunity will result in a substantial Winter wave. The rate of breakthrough cases will be higher, but I’m hopeful that boosters will largely keep people out of the hospital.

We’re all exhausted. The scientists. The healthcare workers. The parents. The pharmacists. The teachers. Everyone. But the virus isn’t. And it won’t be until we all take it seriously. Wear a good mask. Ventilate spaces. Test, test, test. And, for the love of all things, go get your vaccine and/or booster.

Ok people. Research Marek disease in chickens. And the leaky vs perfect vaccine theory and what ends up happening to the microbes host population. This is where its heading. Anyone in a position to affect the plandemic knows this and is steering the outcome this way, ignoring.....science.

Dr. Snoop. lol.

Unmasked

CunningCanuk said:

Dr. Snoop. lol.

Click to expand...

The money spent on education was a complete waste on some, it would be better if they were left illiterate.

DIY-HP-LED said:

The money spent on education was a complete waste on some, it would be better if they were left illiterate.

Click to expand...

I’m not sure I agree. Educating all, even those who don’t use it, is valuable in terms of creating common culture and identity.

CatHedral said:

I’m not sure I agree. Educating all, even those who don’t use it, is valuable in terms of creating common culture and identity.

Click to expand...

From what I've seen of most of their posts they are illiterate or semiliterate anyway. As for a common culture, you do have a culture war stoked by the domestic for profit disinformation system that is helping to tribalize white America and create divisions.

Snoopy808 said:

Ok people. Research Marek disease in chickens. And the leaky vs perfect vaccine theory and what ends up happening to the microbes host population. This is where its heading. Anyone in a position to affect the plandemic knows this and is steering the outcome this way, ignoring.....science.

Click to expand...

Ummm ok! And what were your conclusions? You are talking about chicken herpes right? Please don’t cherry pick your research and include both arguments for the efficacy of the vaccine. I’m assuming without vaccine you would be missing a few chicken nugget meals ;(.

Snoopy808 said:

Ok people. Research Marek disease in chickens. And the leaky vs perfect vaccine theory and what ends up happening to the microbes host population. This is where its heading. Anyone in a position to affect the plandemic knows this and is steering the outcome this way, ignoring.....science.

Click to expand...

So what is your solution?

rollitup said:

Nope, it's the deep South country boys who call him Joe Rob!

Click to expand...

So far only one deep south country boy calls him Joe Rob. I do it just to screw with my neighbors.

The pandemic will be over when the hospitals and ICU beds stop filling up with sick people. In other words, it will be over in places with high vaxx and booster rates and where they still practice public health measures like wearing masks inside public places. It's the hospitalization rate that determines when this thing becomes a manageable issue and that will depend on the vaxx rate, testing, treatments and public health measures. Covid is endemic now, pets, domestic and wild animals can get it too, it's here to stay. About 30% of Americans are unvaccinated and will most likely catch covid by spring, the vast majority of them will be republicans.

Ya know, right about now yer typical Baptist evangelical preacher should be saying that this plague was brought upon the Trumpers by God! At this point it sure looks targeted at Republicans and assorted wingnuts who appear to be cursed by the Lord, or Darwin. I guess the trouble is almost all the Baptist and evangelical preachers are Trumpers and so are their congregations...

Saw a scientist say Omicron will add 2 years to the pandemic.

I had mentioned earlier that we planned to visit my 86 year old parents for Christmas. We decided we would drive (16 hours) to reduce the risk. We planned on a stop at the half way point, Quebec City and make it a relaxing 2 day trip.

My parents are getting boosted tomorrow. I got boosted last Friday. My wife would get boosted the day before we leave (next Friday) and my daughter would not be boosted.

We haven’t seen my parents in 3 years and they really want us to go. If they got boosted a couple of weeks ago I’d feel better but with cases going up everywhere, I’m really thinking it’s just too risky. If we were to go, I would drive straight through and avoid the hotel.

What do you guys think?

CunningCanuk said:

I had mentioned earlier that we planned to visit my 86 year old parents for Christmas. We decided we would drive (16 hours) to reduce the risk. We planned on a stop at the half way point, Quebec City and make it a relaxing 2 day trip.

My parents are getting boosted tomorrow. I got boosted last Friday. My wife would get boosted the day before we leave (next Friday) and my daughter would not be boosted.

We haven’t seen my parents in 3 years and they really want us to go. If they got boosted a couple of weeks ago I’d feel better but with cases going up everywhere, I’m really thinking it’s just too risky. If we were to go, I would drive straight through and avoid the hotel.

What do you guys think?

Click to expand...

All 3 of you test up before the ride and go straight though IMO.

CunningCanuk said:

I had mentioned earlier that we planned to visit my 86 year old parents for Christmas. We decided we would drive (16 hours) to reduce the risk. We planned on a stop at the half way point, Quebec City and make it a relaxing 2 day trip.

My parents are getting boosted tomorrow. I got boosted last Friday. My wife would get boosted the day before we leave (next Friday) and my daughter would not be boosted.

We haven’t seen my parents in 3 years and they really want us to go. If they got boosted a couple of weeks ago I’d feel better but with cases going up everywhere, I’m really thinking it’s just too risky. If we were to go, I would drive straight through and avoid the hotel.

What do you guys think?

Click to expand...

You can buy home test kits and test along the way, wear masks and avoid crowds, eat at drive throughs, I'd drive straight through. Everything is a risk these days with covid and the vulnerable, get tested by the gov before ya go too and have yer POV ready. Good luck, cherish your parents, you won't have them for long, I think they would want a visit too and are willing to risk it, just take all the precautions you can. With everybody boosted and your daughter recently vaxxed you should be ok to go.

CunningCanuk said:

I had mentioned earlier that we planned to visit my 86 year old parents for Christmas. We decided we would drive (16 hours) to reduce the risk. We planned on a stop at the half way point, Quebec City and make it a relaxing 2 day trip.

My parents are getting boosted tomorrow. I got boosted last Friday. My wife would get boosted the day before we leave (next Friday) and my daughter would not be boosted.

We haven’t seen my parents in 3 years and they really want us to go. If they got boosted a couple of weeks ago I’d feel better but with cases going up everywhere, I’m really thinking it’s just too risky. If we were to go, I would drive straight through and avoid the hotel.

What do you guys think?

Click to expand...

That's a long drive, but applaud you for making the choice to trek straight through. I've traveled that corridor in the winter a few times, all the way to Rivière-du-Loup, and weather can add 30% to your drive time. Hope you have a copilot. Safe travels.

Fondest memories of Quebec City is their craft beers.

Almost as good as a vaccine for those with immune issues, lasts as long as a vaccine booster.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FDA clears new preventive Covid antibody treatment for immunocompromised people

The Food and Drug Administration authorized the first injectable monoclonal antibody cocktail for long-term prevention of Covid-19 among people with weakened immune systems before they have been exposed to the coronavirus.

The FDA issued an emergency use authorization Wednesday for AstraZeneca’s antibody cocktail, Evusheld, for what is known as pre-exposure prophylaxis, or PrEP, against Covid-19.

To date, such laboratory-produced antibodies have been authorized only as early treatment of Covid-19 or as preventive therapy for high-risk people immediately after close contact with someone who has tested positive.

Evusheld can be used as PrEP by people ages 12 and older who are moderately to severely immunocompromised and may not get adequate immune responses from a Covid vaccine. The therapy is also an option for the rare people who have histories of severe adverse reactions to a Covid vaccine or its components.

The AstraZeneca therapy involves getting preventive injections as often as every six months. According to a large placebo-controlled clinical trial, the cocktail is about 83 percent effective at preventing symptomatic disease during such an interval.

It’s unclear how the highly mutated omicron variant of the coronavirus — which is spreading in 57 countries, including the U.S.— might affect the efficacy of the monoclonal antibody therapy.

AstraZeneca's scientists are testing Evusheld against the new variant, said Ruud Dobber, an executive vice president and president of the company’s BioPharmaceuticals Business Unit. They are optimistic about its efficacy against the omicron variant because both of the antibodies in the cocktail, tixagevimab and cilgavimab, target the virus’s spike protein in different and complementary ways.

Data are expected in the coming weeks, Dobber said in a statement.

Still, for many of the estimated 3 percent of U.S. adults who are immunocompromised, the long-awaited news that antibody PrEP has finally been cleared should bring profound relief.

captainmorgan said:

Saw a scientist say Omicron will add 2 years to the pandemic.

Click to expand...

Quit seeing him.