It can take a week for a seed to break the soil once it`s popped
Temperature changes can kill a seed dead fast also touching them can damage them also germing in just water can over hydrate them.
There`s no ideal way to germinate a seed the best way is simply put it in a substraint or rooting cube and add a tiny bit of water and then keep it at 26c but anything over 16c and it should still grow
I`ve used paper towels, soil, vermiculite, perlite, magic soil, root cubes, aeroponics and just water to germinate
I find that normally if a seed that has popped fails it`s because something just plain went wrong normally heat or the tiny plant gets damaged or over or under watered.
I`ve seen a seed shoot the wrong way, I`ve seen one end up in a pot under a root cube and dry out see most people that grow get stonned at some point and then stoner physics just takes over lol