Recent Economic Growth

[jrh72582]

If you will, read the article. This report can be seen all over the interwebs, so if you don't like the source, you can find the same information elsewhere.

http://money.cnn.com/2010/01/29/news/economy/gdp/index.htm?hpt=T2

We're certainly not out of the water yet and there continues to be much government inadequacy on all levels, but this is a good sign.

 

[Illegal Smile]

A total sunshine pumper article from the obedient liberal media. Anyone who wants to believe it be my guest. Economists who are held accountable for what they say are remaining quiet. They know it is just a blip and is not sustainable. The proof lies in Wall St - they ignored it.

 

[jrh72582]

A total sunshine pumper article from the obedient liberal media. Anyone who wants to believe it be my guest. Economists who are held accountable for what they say are remaining quiet. They know it is just a blip and is not sustainable. The proof lies in Wall St - they ignored it.

Creating belief alone can produce positive effects, but most likely temporary ones.

 

[NoDrama]

Creating belief alone can produce positive effects, but most likely temporary ones.

Ding ding ding, at least you get it. Give the stimulus another 4-6 months to wear off and it might very well be right back to where we were. Kind of just like the 1929 crash and in 1930 almost all the losses were made back, only to have it crash even harder and for 15 more years.

 

[hanimmal]

There is still a ways to go to be at zero on the recession indicator, but it is looking pretty good. It looks like there usually is a small spike after the decline (except during Reagen's where it shot all the way back up) so hopefully around june we should be through the worst of it.

The positive import/export we have seen recently should flip flop again soon, But the biggest thing is the change in inventories. That should be very low in the next couple quarters, but it is good because that means businesses are seeing the light at the end of the tunnel and expecting customers to come back around.

I know that in the business I was in the vendors had about a 65% drop in production over the last year, and now are struggling to restock the retail stores who have orders to fill, but no product. Which means they are going to have to hire to get everything back to normal. So it is looking good from a lot of different angles.

It would be interesting to see how this would change unemployment, but it will be difficult to really know with the census numbers affecting everything. So really we are going to have to wait a while to get good numbers on jobs.

But then again my balls are not on the chopping block if I say this.


http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2010/01/strong_gdp_grow.html

 

[Illegal Smile]

Recessions do end without governments just like global warming and cooling happens without human intervention. Business cycles come and go and while politicians posture about how they are going to affect them, they don't. What they do is make matters worse which is why, mark my words, we are now going to see inflation rise faster than unemployment declines. The return of the Jimmy Carter Misery Index is right around the corner.

 

[Wavels]

The return of the Jimmy Carter Misery Index is right around the corner.

Yes Sir
Wow I can't wait to dig into a nice steaming plate of stagflation!
Yummy!
Just like Jimmah made it!

 

[hanimmal]

I agree if nothing changes you're right about inflation rising faster than unemployment. As more people are working and that money starts to get out into the economy as well as the 2 trillion or so that was dumped out it is the only way it can happen.

That is why there is a lot of debate about when to retract that $2t. If they pull it too soon, it could kick us back into a second recession, and too late and they are dealing with what you are predicting. It all comes to a head in the next year.

If they do nothing the Carter misery index is a reality. But you know that they won't just leave it to the wind to sort out. It is more interesting to see how/when they do it and to see the results of it.

 

[NoDrama]

I think the wind would do a better job than the Fed to be honest.