Will Canada's marijuana supply be ready for legalization?

VIANARCHRIS

Well-Known Member
ome people involved in Canada's unregulated cannabis industry say, unless something changes quickly, the supply of available pot come legalization next July, will be inadequate, and the black market will continue to thrive.

In British Columbia, Public Safety Minister Mike Farnworth announced Monday the public would be consulted on some of the upcoming rules around marijuana in the province, including distribution, age and possession limits. But Farnworth noted the issue of supply, though critical to ending the black market, is in the hands of the federal government.

According to longtime activist and dispensary director Dana Larsen, the amount of quality marijuana available from licensed suppliers is far too low to meet current demands, not to mention the demands of a legal recreational market.

"The legally licensed producers, there's not enough of them. They're not growing enough cannabis. They're not allowed to produce half the products we sell in our dispensary, so they're inadequate to meet the demand that's out there," said Larsen, whose two dispensaries face routine fines and legal threats from the City of Vancouver.

"We purchase from the craft market or the black market or whatever you want to call it," he said.

Dozens of licences issued

There are now 59 federal licenses for growing medical marijuana in Canada, five of which belong to companies with two sites. Many of the growers aren't currently authorized to sell cannabis.

Ian Dawkins, president of the Cannabis Commerce Association of Canada, a trade association representing about 100 small and medium growers in the so-called "craft market," says the licensed growers are only supplying about five per cent of the current market — including the medical and black markets.

"If they're going to block the existing craft producers from getting licensed, where is this cannabis going to come from? The licensed producers are not equipped to increase their capacity that much, it's simply not feasible," said Dawkins.

According to Dawkins, if pot legalization rolls smaller producers into the system and relies on a Vancouver-style independent dispensary retail system, there shouldn't be any major issues on July 1, 2018.

'This is not a joke'

"You could, with very few additions, make everything quite safe and put it well in line with international norms from places like Colorado and California," he said. "If you're talking about what Ontario's proposing, there's not a chance [the provinces will] be prepared on day one."

"Cannabis is the third largest sector of our GDP by size. This is not a joke. If we screw this up, if Ontario screws this up, if the feds screw this up, [British Columbia] is hooped," said Dawkins. "This is not a small thing to get wrong. This is a massive part of our economy, whether you like it or not."

Larsen agrees that, unless the new pot regime includes the current retailers and producers, it's going to be a very bumpy start next summer.

"Oh, I predict on July 2 and for several years to come, there'll be chaos and confusion and raids and court cases and dispensaries still struggling to continue serving people," he said.

Follow Rafferty Baker on Twitter: @raffertybaker
 

gb123

Well-Known Member
ready?
more like
its already there...and wont stop either.

No room for GLP sales.. :razz:
I wonder what they'll come up with to TRY as they will to get rid of their shwags? lol

Ill suggest kitty litter but the facts are that the garbage men may hurt themselves with the amounts of poison swhags going in the trash... :spew:

:bigjoint:
 

VIANARCHRIS

Well-Known Member
Reality check: Marijuana shortages will plague first year or so of legalization


People who are hoping to celebrate Canada Day next year with a perfectly legal joint bought in a perfectly legal store are likely to be out of luck, industry experts say.

Canada’s licenced producers can’t come close to meeting the expected demand for recreational pot, and for the first year and a half or so of legalization, there won’t be enough to go around.
Provinces will try to move sales online, but that won’t be a solution either, predicts John Prentice, president of Ample Organics, which supplies software to the cannabis industry.

“I suspect that there just will not be product to sell, and the (online) store will have sporadic moments of product availability. They’ll acquire 50 kilos of product from a licenced producer, then send you an email, and they’ll sell out in a couple of minutes. Then you’re waiting for the next shipment to come in.”

“I do think the supply issues are going to be that constrained here in the country, especially on Day 1.”

WATCH: The NDP are questioning why edible cannabis is not included in the Liberals’ marijuana legislation and are asking them to fix the issue.


READ MORE: Women, non-smokers, millennials interested in marijuana edibles: Ipsos poll

The problems are rooted in math and biology, and to a certain extent in bureaucracy.

Canada’s existing licenced producers ship about 20,000 kilograms of dried marijuana to medical customers a year. Expected national demand under recreational legalization is in the range of 650,000 kilograms a year, the Parliamentary Budget Officer pointed out in a report last fall. In the long run, supply will grow to meet demand, but in the short run, the PBO predicted shortages.

“In the event that somebody applies for a licence, the process can take up to two years before they’re approved by Health Canada to even start cultivation activity,” Prentice says. “Then they need to get the inventory to start cultivation, and the permitting for that can take a little while. Then you have cultivation time on top of that, plus the buildout of the facilities.”

“Starting from nothing, you could be three years before your plants are in the grow room, growing for their first harvest.”

And, of course, the plants can only grow so fast.

An Ipsos poll published Tuesday showed that about 9.5 million adult Canadians are planning to try smokable or edible pot when it’s legal (most people in that group said they wanted to try both), but it seems like they’re doomed to months of disappointment.

Every U.S. state that has legalized recreational pot has taken between 18 months and a year for supply to start to meet demand, he says.

“Washington was the same, and we’re watching Nevada go through it right now. They had to issue emergency licences to help open more dispensaries and grows.”

Some provinces show awareness of the issue. New Brunswick, which became the second province to announce its plan to sell recreational pot earlier this month, announced that it had signed supply contracts with producers in Moncton and Smiths Falls, Ont., to make sure that there would be at least some marijuana to sell.

WATCH: The New Brunswick government has become the first Atlantic province to reveal its plans for the legalization of marijuana. Adrienne South has more information on the details of the plan.


READ MORE: New Brunswick creates Crown corporation to oversee marijuana sales

The problem, apart from disappointed customers and tax revenue left on the table, is that legal — but empty — marijuana stores mean that governments can’t shut down the black market in pot, which was advertised as the main point of legalizing in the first place.

“There’s a real push to get this over the line,” Prentice says. “It was a Trudeau election promise, and something that was very important to his campaign, but at the same time they haven’t really given the opportunity or sufficient time to create the infrastructure deployment of legalization. The timeline is tight, and plants don’t grow overnight.”

WATCH: Police services across the country asked the federal government to put the brakes on legalizing pot, saying they won’t be ready to deal with it by next summer.


Is there a silver lining?

In July, Manitoba Premier Brian Pallister said his province needed another year to be ready for legalization. Earlier in September, senior police officers said they needed more time to prepare for the law enforcement side of legalization.

But if the marijuana production system isn’t ready either, simple logistics may give them the time they say they need.
 

VIANARCHRIS

Well-Known Member
we’re watching Nevada go through it right now. They had to issue emergency licences to help open more dispensaries and grows.”
It will be the same here, the solution is simple. We have thousands of qualified growers already set up and producing.
They need to invite the med and bm growers to apply to be a cannabis grower/supplier. The grower would have to meet basic conditions ( inspections, insurance, etc) and all product would go to a lab for testing before sale. I'm convinced it is going to happen, regardless, it's just how long it'll take Trudeau and his cohorts to realize he fucked up....and lost.
 

cannadan

Well-Known Member
the only people to suffer will be med patients that rely on both systems....this is a,complete failure.
sorta been this way since I have been enrolled...
med patients have continually made strides in the right direction but have had many set backs to deal with as well...like the Harper gov. and mmpr
what they don't realize is there is no turning back...and you just can't keep messing with sick peoples lives... because of your personal beliefs ...
and its def been getting harder not easier to get access
 

CalyxCrusher

Well-Known Member
It will be the same here, the solution is simple. We have thousands of qualified growers already set up and producing.
They need to invite the med and bm growers to apply to be a cannabis grower/supplier. The grower would have to meet basic conditions ( inspections, insurance, etc) and all product would go to a lab for testing before sale. I'm convinced it is going to happen, regardless, it's just how long it'll take Trudeau and his cohorts to realize he fucked up....and lost.
Now why do you have to go and make sense
 

kDude

Well-Known Member
nah, i'm sure the LP's have a nice stock-pile of aging garbage crap they can't move to med users, just waiting for the recreational market to open.. they'll claim it's nicely cured (if they know that word) rather than calling it old pot.

probably gonna be a lot of sick folks that day.. not because of over indulging on marijuana, but what it's grown/sprayed with.
 

The Hippy

Well-Known Member
imo there will be no shortage. They may temporarily sell out from curiosity in the first few weeks but that will be short lived. It won't take consumers long to realize it's much more expensive than buddies is. Then the poor quality will become obvious and folks will find better cheaper elsewhere.
For instance what would these stores have to offer to someone like me? Not much. Established users are NOT going to shop with them. Not to mention the resentment...no one seems to consider that part.
The amount of folks/users waiting for the legalization flag to drop is WAY over estimated. They will brag up the crowds at first but it no different than any new restaurant that opens...busy at first...slow later after everyone tries it.
 

itsmehigh

Well-Known Member
It
imo there will be no shortage. They may temporarily sell out from curiosity in the first few weeks but that will be short lived. It won't take consumers long to realize it's much more expensive than buddies is. Then the poor quality will become obvious and folks will find better cheaper elsewhere.
For instance what would these stores have to offer to someone like me? Not much. Established users are NOT going to shop with them. Not to mention the resentment...no one seems to consider that part.
The amount of folks/users waiting for the legalization flag to drop is WAY over estimated. They will brag up the crowds at first but it no different than any new restaurant that opens...busy at first...slow later after everyone tries it.
Your medical and grow your own, why would you need to? Let those dumbfucks bankrupt themselves. Catch 22 it's your tax dollars. You guys need a change of gov. or a good lawyer!
I've still got a couple weeks until my "dumb fucks" give BC it's cannabis regulations. I am hopefully, (naive?) that BC will get closer at getting it right.

The only real answer would be to remove cannabis and its derivatives from the CDSA.

Hint. You can vote Dailly for our gov survey.....

Itsme.
 

The Hippy

Well-Known Member
The rec market will be even more shocked when they see the prices..they will run ...not walk back to buddy.
The only way to stop is it is a huge campaign of jack booting in doors . Which I predict is coming after they shut down on-line and any dispensaries left. Then they will go after the BM smallish growers one by one.
A war is looming
 
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