Why Bitcoin is doomed.

redzi

Well-Known Member
I think bitcoins are worth around $230 right now. Are you saying you don't think them worth more than 95, or 95 is the threshold that will cause the govt to step in?
The most I would leave in a account with no purchases intended in the near future would be $95 worth....the same that I am willing to bet on game and not worry about loosing. The more likely cause of bitcoins demise would be a few jackass billionaires getting together and manipulating the price. Sort of like what you read about the Hunt brothers doing to the silver market back in the 80s.
 

Harrekin

Well-Known Member
The most I would leave in a account with no purchases intended in the near future would be $95 worth....the same that I am willing to bet on game and not worry about loosing. The more likely cause of bitcoins demise would be a few jackass billionaires getting together and manipulating the price. Sort of like what you read about the Hunt brothers doing to the silver market back in the 80s.
The markets are still rigged...
 

ginwilly

Well-Known Member
I'm only about 30 minutes in, but already learned bitcoin is capped at 21M units.

I'm encouraged by that.

I'm more convinced now that Bitcoin (or something similar) is here to stay. Wish I had gotten in on the ground floor...

I'm less than half way through and he's starting to bore me. I've bookmarked and it will come back to it later. Appreciate the link, just don't have it in me right now to give it the attention it deserves.
 
Last edited:

heckler73

Well-Known Member
I'm less than half way through and he's starting to bore me. I've bookmarked and it will come back to it later. Appreciate the link, just don't have it in me right now to give it the attention it deserves.
His talk ends, and a different one continues on (which I am watching now). I can understand the boredom. He does drone on about some points. But since he is a part of "the system" I figured his perspective would be of benefit to some on here who may be curious as to what the Fed thinks about Bitcoin (spoiler: they don't care about it).

EDIT: skip the 2nd presenter, go to 1:25:00 for Bill Janeway's talk.
 
Last edited:

ginwilly

Well-Known Member
His talk ends, and a different one continues on (which I am watching now). I can understand the boredom. He does drone on about some points. But since he is a part of "the system" I figured his perspective would be of benefit to some on here who may be curious as to what the Fed thinks about Bitcoin (spoiler: they don't care about it).
Yeah, the federal reserve gets touchy about real competition.

They are working with IBM to create their own.
https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/ibm-federal-reserve-want-create-bitcoin-knock-off/
 

heckler73

Well-Known Member

ginwilly

Well-Known Member
Andolfatto's slides discuss that.
http://t.co/dyt6v2YdDh
Strangely he didn't get much of a chance to discuss it. To be fair, when Andolfatto says the Fed doesn't care, he means the Bitcoin itself. But the idea of the blockchain is worth something to them.
I'm not sure I believe the fed doesn't care. It could be true perhaps, but I believe it's more like "the fed can't do anything about it and will work to compete against them and drive them from business"

Central banks are not about open market competition at all, they've shown that for over a century.

Russian Rubles are one example I can think of what the central banks are capable of. I think they passive aggressively went after the swiss franc too. All those gains from earlier this year are just about gone now. Up to the point where they unpegged the euro, the highest standard deviation I could remember was around 20. That day, EUR/CHF experienced a 43. 43......That didn't sit well with the currency community. My broker FXCM lost 440M that day.

Interesting tidbit. FXCM secured a loan of 500M that week from Berkshire-Hathaway. Tell me Buffett doesn't control markets.
 

heckler73

Well-Known Member
I'm not sure I believe the fed doesn't care. It could be true perhaps, but I believe it's more like "the fed can't do anything about it and will work to compete against them and drive them from business"
Would you like me to ask him personally? :mrgreen:
He makes the point clearly when comparing "market caps" of BTC and the Fed balance-sheet. The scale is small, and by definition it cannot become a proper "unit of account" (or numeraire).


Interesting tidbit. FXCM secured a loan of 500M that week from Berkshire-Hathaway. Tell me Buffett doesn't control markets.
He doesn't need to control them. There are enough people who follow his moves to make his actions a force by proxy. Of course, he knows that, too. I'm sure he's not altruistic (nor dotty) enough to trade in a vacuum. So while he may not "control" markets like an iron fist beneath the velvet glove, he indubitably uses his leverage of influence for questionable reasons.
 

ginwilly

Well-Known Member
Would you like me to ask him personally? :mrgreen:
He makes the point clearly when comparing "market caps" of BTC and the Fed balance-sheet. The scale is small, and by definition it cannot become a proper "unit of account" (or numeraire).
True, I'm thinking more along the lines of the threat of what Bitcoin has shown is possible moreso than "just" Bitcoin. They used innovation that "could" put a dent in central banking control. The best option for them is to also monopolize and control this market.

He doesn't need to control them. There are enough people who follow his moves to make his actions a force by proxy. Of course, he knows that, too. I'm sure he's not altruistic (nor dotty) enough to trade in a vacuum. So while he may not "control" markets like an iron fist beneath the velvet glove, he indubitably uses his leverage of influence for questionable reasons.
That's what I actually meant, you said it better. One reason the forex market is popular is because of the sheer volume. Because of the sheer volume, it's nearly impossible to control. It would take a concerted, world wide effort by central bankers and brokerage firms. I'm not a big enough conspiracy theory guy to believe that will happen. I actually see no point or profit. These are in competition with each other, not cahoots (for the most part, I think you know what I mean).

Manipulate or coerce would have been a better way of putting it.
 

Red1966

Well-Known Member


which is why i'll never play the market again..other than a 401k in order to gain company match..<shrug> meh, why leave money on the table?

i will put it in bonds so it's virtually guaranteed* to be there when i retire.

the rest? i will throw it in my safe because it will earn more..at least i know it will be there when i get back.

thank you for your part in the sham the nearly took down a global economy!:finger:

signed the girl who stood in her companies lobby consoling the 401k rep on September 15, 2008, morning when i should have been at presidents in atlantis that year..but couldn't..the phones stopped ringing the quarter before..something surely had gone down..down the drain..

30% of my business and 15% of my 401k.

xxoo
Says the girl on food stamps
 

ginwilly

Well-Known Member
It's been dropping steadily for some time now.
Gold is a finite substance while dollars have been appearing from thin air for years.

2 possible reasons. Gold was way overvalued and we are seeing a correction, or prices are being manipulated.

I have a tinfoil theory about gold. The amount owned and the actual amount in existence are not even close to reality. The last audit of Ft. Knox was in the 50's and even then only 5% was actually tested.

If true audits of the world's supply of gold were done, and it was found out there was only a small percentage of what is claimed and sold, what would happen?
 

heckler73

Well-Known Member
True, I'm thinking more along the lines of the threat of what Bitcoin has shown is possible moreso than "just" Bitcoin. They used innovation that "could" put a dent in central banking control. The best option for them is to also monopolize and control this market.
There are only two functions of money which Bitcoin offer; 1) a medium of exchange; 2) a store of value.
It cannot fulfill the functions of unit of deferred payment or unit of account.

The only services truly threatened are things like international micro-transfers (i.e. WesternUnion, PayPal, etc.) and credit providers (Visa, MC, etc.), not the BIS and the associated network.
The innovation of the blockchain will be the only progressive aspect of value extracted, while technology continues its onslaught of economic beliefs and systems elsewhere. There is absolutely no benefit to the CBs in monopolizing Bitcoin. They can create their own FedCoin and make it into a pseudo-security at the same time. Innovation is easy to copy, especially when there is no property right associated.

By design, Bitcoin will destroy itself when the limit is approached, as the return of miners (those who keep the blockchain alive) falls off the page. The expense of maintaining the infrastructure, sans perpetual electrical power, will drive participants out. At some point because of this real cost, fees will be tacked on, and it will just become another WesternUnion moneygram. Will the fee for service be lower than that offered by competition currently? Assuredly...assuming it survives technological change itself.


Manipulate or coerce would have been a better way of putting it.
Yes, that is a better way of stating his effect.
 

Attachments

Last edited:

ginwilly

Well-Known Member
There are only two functions of money which Bitcoin offer; 1) a medium of exchange; 2) a store of value.
It cannot fulfill the functions of unit of deferred payment or unit of account.

The only services truly threatened are things like international micro-transfers (i.e. WesternUnion, PayPal, etc.) and credit providers (Visa, MC, etc.), not the BIS and the associated network.
The innovation of the blockchain will be the only progressive aspect of value extracted, while technology continues its onslaught of economic beliefs and systems elsewhere. There is absolutely no benefit to the CBs in monopolizing Bitcoin. They can create their own FedCoin and make it into a pseudo-security at the same time. Innovation is easy to copy, especially when there is no property right associated.

By design, Bitcoin will destroy itself when the limit is approached, as the return of miners (those who keep the blockchain alive) falls off the page. The expense of maintaining the infrastructure, sans perpetual electrical power, will drive participants out. At some point because of this real cost, fees will be tacked on, and it will just become another WesternUnion moneygram. Will the fee for service be lower than that offered by competition currently? Assuredly...assuming it survives technological change itself.



Yes, that is a better way of stating his effect.
Anonymity is another function, although surely that's a small percentage of people's concern (although a major reason bitcoin was so popular in the beginning). I know this isn't exclusive as cash can have the same properties.

What the professor should have said when he talked about no unit of deferred payment is no unit of deferred payment yet, and no unsecured unit of deferred payment. Bitcoin is in it's infancy, he's making assumption on what we have now when 10 years ago the idea of Bitcoin itself would have seemed a waste of time and effort.

Innovation is unpredictable for the most part. If a person could predict future innovations, he would be rich. Some have obviously been successful in doing this, like Ford and even Buffet and Gates while others have failed like T. Boone Picket.
 
Top