The Long March to 11/24

Fogdog

Well-Known Member
Polls this far out are no signal and all noise. Imo it is somewhat reprehensible for mainstream media to talk them up. Don’t let “not news” harsh your mellow. bongsmilie
I can practically guarantee that current polls will not present the picture seven months from today.

Even then, the only poll that really matters is the one for which they mail you a ballot.
not no signal, just noisy. Polls this far out have no predictive power for the outcome in November but they do tell us what public sentiment is at the moment.
 

Fogdog

Well-Known Member
Understand,but in an election that may be decided by razor thin margins KINO grabbing ANY votes both irks and concerns me,I'm hoping something on Trumps end goes down to take him OFF the table for independent/undecided minds,you know common sense tells us that come DECISION time any sane person not in the MAGA tank will have a lightbulb moment that they just can't in good conscience pull the trigger on a vote for Trump, HOPEFULLY,that said this guy has defied all logic and I find it forboding,like I said I'd like to see something let some air out of the balloon prior to the election cause if it were TODAY,it'd be sweating bullets time.
Today's poll has little bearing on who will win. But it tells us what to look for as the election date approaches.

Yes, Biden has low approval and maybe Trump's approval rating is a little better. An analogy that I heard one analyst use compares voter sentiment about Biden v Trump to the way people feel about dentists. Do you like going to the dentist? I you aren't a hard core masochist, probably not. Then ask how you feel about gum disease? So, yeah, people are down on Biden right now but as the election approaches, people are going to have a choice akin to choosing between the dentist and gum disease. No matter how people might feel about Biden, actions and policies like January 6, women's right to choose and the extremism of Trump and the Republican Party poll strongly against Republicans.

Polls today aren't telling us that Biden will lose, they are telling us the election will be close and Biden's campaign has a lot of work to do to make sure they hold states they should win and turn states that might vote for Trump into win for Biden.
 

cannabineer

Ursus marijanus
not no signal, just noisy. Polls this far out have no predictive power for the outcome in November but they do tell us what public sentiment is at the moment.
A nonzero signal can disappear into the noise floor, and the data are very noisy.
So strictly speaking, there is signal. Practically, it is indiscernible imo.
 

CCGNZ

Well-Known Member
Polls this far out are no signal and all noise. Imo it is somewhat reprehensible for mainstream media to talk them up. Don’t let “not news” harsh your mellow. bongsmilie
I can practically guarantee that current polls will not present the picture seven months from today.

Even then, the only poll that really matters is the one for which they mail you a ballot.
I agree man,it's just been a LONG ass ride and I'm wearing a little thin going on 8 yrs. of unprecedented,mind numbing/blowing BS that defies logic.When Biden sent him packing in 2020 coupled w/the disgraceful episode on Jan.6 and actual tape of him extorting GA's Sec of State to fudge votes had me concluding Trump was exposed and in the dumpster,to have to gear up for a 2.0 resurrection is like getting to the marathon finish line only to see it painted START.
 

CCGNZ

Well-Known Member
Today's poll has little bearing on who will win. But it tells us what to look for as the election date approaches.

Yes, Biden has low approval and maybe Trump's approval rating is a little better. An analogy that I heard one analyst use compares voter sentiment about Biden v Trump to the way people feel about dentists. Do you like going to the dentist? I you aren't a hard core masochist, probably not. Then ask how you feel about gum disease? So, yeah, people are down on Biden right now but as the election approaches, people are going to have a choice akin to choosing between the dentist and gum disease. No matter how people might feel about Biden, actions and policies like January 6, women's right to choose and the extremism of Trump and the Republican Party poll strongly against Republicans.

Polls today aren't telling us that Biden will lose, they are telling us the election will be close and Biden's campaign has a lot of work to do to make sure they hold states they should win and turn states that might vote for Trump into win for Biden.
Thanks to you and Canna for sound advice,I understand this,guess I'm tired,stressed,and miffed that w/ Trumps record in 4 yrs.,his dubious/dangerous entanglement w/adversarial countries,his lacking moral/mental state that he get's any more than 10% of voter support is disconcerting to me. Coupled w/Biden not getting any props for his accomplishments domestically while being dealt some shitty cards on the foreign policy end that would collapse the house of cards that was Trump's administration.Find it all nonsensical,overbearing,and unrelenting that we are where we're at today,so many in this nation seemingly ok w/this guy getting the keys again. When this clown was exposed, down and out ,licking his wounds in Mar-A-Lago post 2020 I'd have told you there was a better chance of a asteroid landing in my back yard than him doing a redux in 2024.One brick at a time,thanks Mitch(could have impeached his ass),thanks Kevin(did the brief Spk. term taste better than his backside),and on and on "another brick in the wall".
 

Fogdog

Well-Known Member
Thanks to you and Canna for sound advice,I understand this,guess I'm tired,stressed,and miffed that w/ Trumps record in 4 yrs.,his dubious/dangerous entanglement w/adversarial countries,his lacking moral/mental state that he get's any more than 10% of voter support is disconcerting to me. Coupled w/Biden not getting any props for his accomplishments domestically while being dealt some shitty cards on the foreign policy end that would collapse the house of cards that was Trump's administration.Find it all nonsensical,overbearing,and unrelenting that we are where we're at today,so many in this nation seemingly ok w/this guy getting the keys again. When this clown was exposed, down and out ,licking his wounds in Mar-A-Lago post 2020 I'd have told you there was a better chance of a asteroid landing in my back yard than him doing a redux in 2024.One brick at a time,thanks Mitch(could have impeached his ass),thanks Kevin(did the brief Spk. term taste better than his backside),and on and on "another brick in the wall".
7 months to go. There is plenty of water to go under the bridge before its over. Plenty will happen that none of us can predict.

This is probably the most important election we have participated in, in our lifetimes. Or maybe we should lump the 2020 election in that too. We (most of us) didn't know in November 2020 who Trump was. Not until Jan 6, 2021 did most of us know how far he was willing to take it. So maybe this election is not more important than the one held in 2020 but knowing who he really is and still letting him win seems worse to me.

This is an interview with an expert in fascism who in fact did say Trump wasn't going to leave without doing something like what he did on Jan 6. It's the kind of long discussion that I prefer over 10 minute bytes. Attached are video and audio clips depending you preference. It gives a deeper understanding of what we are up against and not just the day by day events driven stuff.



I you can't listen to the whole thing, start the audio at 33:25 and she lays it all out, why, if Trump wins he'll never give up power. Because he can't. That's what strongmen leaders do. She's studied the subject and that's what they all do. They can't leave power because they need power to protect themselves from being held accountable for the crimes they commit. She names them. Putin, Berlusconi, and Netanyahu. She describes them all as cut from the same corrupt authoritarian strongman cut of cloth.
 
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printer

Well-Known Member
7 months to go. There is plenty of water to go under the bridge before its over. Plenty will happen that none of us can predict.

This is probably the most important election we have participated in, in our lifetimes. Or maybe we should lump the 2020 election in that too. We (most of us) didn't know in November 2020 who Trump was. Not until Jan 6, 2021 did most of us know how far he was willing to take it. So maybe this election is not more important than the one held in 2020 but knowing who he really is and still letting him win seems worse to me.

This is an interview with an expert in fascism who in fact did say Trump wasn't going to leave without doing something like what he did on Jan 6. It's the kind of long discussion that I prefer over 10 minute bytes. Attached are video and audio clips depending you preference. It gives a deeper understanding of what we are up against and not just the day by day events driven stuff.



I you can't listen to the whole thing, start the audio at 33:25 and she lays it all out, why, if Trump wins he'll never give up power. Because he can't. That's what strongmen leaders do. She's studied the subject and that's what they all do. They can't leave power because they need power to protect themselves from being held accountable for the crimes they commit. She names them. Putin, Berlusconi, and Netanyahu. She describes them all as cut from the same corrupt authoritarian strongman cut of cloth.
Don't know who he was until 2020? Heck, I said what he was like before he even got elected.
 

Fogdog

Well-Known Member
Don't know who he was until 2020? Heck, I said what he was like before he even got elected.
Did you KNOW Trump was going to try to overthrow the election in a violent act in November? I didn't. In January, 2021, I was concerned and even expecting Trump to try something. I was surprised on Jan 6 that Capitol Police were hung out to dry by other enforcement units but I'm guessing some of that was deliberate because at the time, we didn't know who all could be trusted.
 

printer

Well-Known Member
Did you KNOW Trump was going to try to overthrow the election in a violent act in November? I didn't. In January, 2021, I was concerned and even expecting Trump to try something. I was surprised on Jan 6 that Capitol Police were hung out to dry by other enforcement units but I'm guessing some of that was deliberate because at the time, we didn't know who all could be trusted.
Not that he would overthrow the election, that was just the avenue that events took things. But I saw him as being a right wing authoritarian type of leader. I thought he would legitimize attacks against his opponents and tilt the political landscape so that Democrats could not win. I knew of his reading Mein Kampf, what he aspires to be. I was not expecting the amount of adults he would have in the room, who would temper his worst behavior. The only reason he did not do it is because of all the Rino's that would not do as he said. I believed his example would encourage the same behavior across the world from every Orban and whoever is running Venezuela to upend society, to decide to carve out a neighboring country's territory.

I never thought Russia would enter Ukraine though, I thought Putin would be more responsible. But I never paid too much concern with the ex-soviet states. I had a partner at work and I tried to explain all this to him but he is one to be more concerned about the sports page rather than the front page. He liked Trump since his TV show, "I think he is funny.". I seen Trump as a egotistical con artist who has no respect for anything else but himself. I seen him as such a threat to the world that I started hanging out in the political section of a pot growing site.
 

CCGNZ

Well-Known Member
7 months to go. There is plenty of water to go under the bridge before its over. Plenty will happen that none of us can predict.

This is probably the most important election we have participated in, in our lifetimes. Or maybe we should lump the 2020 election in that too. We (most of us) didn't know in November 2020 who Trump was. Not until Jan 6, 2021 did most of us know how far he was willing to take it. So maybe this election is not more important than the one held in 2020 but knowing who he really is and still letting him win seems worse to me.

This is an interview with an expert in fascism who in fact did say Trump wasn't going to leave without doing something like what he did on Jan 6. It's the kind of long discussion that I prefer over 10 minute bytes. Attached are video and audio clips depending you preference. It gives a deeper understanding of what we are up against and not just the day by day events driven stuff.



I you can't listen to the whole thing, start the audio at 33:25 and she lays it all out, why, if Trump wins he'll never give up power. Because he can't. That's what strongmen leaders do. She's studied the subject and that's what they all do. They can't leave power because they need power to protect themselves from being held accountable for the crimes they commit. She names them. Putin, Berlusconi, and Netanyahu. She describes them all as cut from the same corrupt authoritarian strongman cut of cloth.
Thanks for taking time to point this out.
 

Fogdog

Well-Known Member
way to give up your tactics Bobby they bser.....

In a NY Times interview recently, RFK Jr. took offense and argued with the interviewer's premise in the question when asked how he would feel if he were a spoiler of the election and helped Trump win in '24. He said they were both bad for the country and that he didn't understand the question because he's going to win. He became testy when asked if his attitude came from a place of entitlement because he would be safe from what Trump and Republicans say they intend after they win.


Here, in the vid you posted a link to, RFK Jr's campaign director for NYS said out loud that "getting rid of Biden" with their strategy for winning in NY would be a great thing. Also, the same boneheaded idea for other Blue states apply -- Republicans should vote for RFJ Jr because Trump can't win in NY or other blue states, and "if nobody gets 270 (EC votes)" the Republican controlled House becomes the deciding factor in who becomes Prez, Trump wins "Does everybody follow that? So we are rid of Biden either way" audience: "yay!" "OK (she laughs)".

aatempfornow.png

But RFJ Jr gets angry if asked about being the spoiler. I hate being lied to. Especially by a yapping antivax Karen. But RFK Jr is no better.
 
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printer

Well-Known Member
Slowly there are consequences.

Conservative operatives who targeted Black voters with robocalls could pay up to $1.25 million
Two conservative operatives who attempted to stop Black voters in New York from voting by mail in the 2020 election have been ordered to pay up to $1.25 million in restitution.

Jacob Wohl and Jack Burkman were found liable in 2023 for targeting Black voters with false and threatening messages intended to discourage voting. U.S. District Judge Victor Marrero said at the time that the two had violated multiple federal and state civil rights laws.

New York Attorney General Letitia James announced Tuesday that Wohl and Burkman had conceded to a $1 million judgment to the Office of the Attorney General (OAG), the National Coalition on Black Civic Participation (NCBCP) and individual plaintiffs. James filed the lawsuit against the two defendants in May 2021.

If Wohl and Burkman fail to pay at least $105,000 by Dec. 31 and do not address the failure to pay within 30 days, the amount will increase to $1.25 million.

“The right to vote is the cornerstone of our democracy, and it belongs to everyone. We will not allow anyone to threaten that right,” James said in a statement Tuesday. “Wohl and Burkman orchestrated a depraved and disinformation-ridden campaign to intimidate Black voters in an attempt to sway the election in favor of their preferred candidate. Now they will pay up to $1.25 million to my office, the National Coalition on Black Civic Participation, and the individuals who were harmed by their scheme. My office will always defend the right to vote.”

Burkman and Wohl pleaded guilty in October 2022 to a single count each of felony telecommunications fraud over the robocalls. They were sentenced in November 2022 to two years probation, six months of electronic monitoring and 500 hours of community service in a voter registration drive.

Wohl and Burkman used a fake organization called Project 1599 to reach approximately 5,500 New Yorkers during the 2020 election cycle. Targeted voters received calls falsely claiming that voting by mail would cause the voter to be tracked for outstanding warrants, credit card debt and mandatory vaccines.

According to the OAG, one such call from “Tamika Taylor” tells voters, “Mail-in voting sounds great, but did you know that if you vote by mail, your personal information will be part of a public database that will be used by police departments to track down old warrants and be used by credit card companies to collect outstanding debts? The CDC [Centers for Disease Control and Prevention] is even pushing to use records for mail-in voting to track people for mandatory vaccines. Don’t be finessed into giving your private information to the man, stay safe and beware of vote by mail.”

One New York voter who received the robocall suffered “severe anxiety and distress” and ultimately withdrew his voter registration, according to James’s office.

As a result of the calls, the NCBCP redirected resources to address the false claims made in the call.

“These men engaged in a conspiracy to suppress Black votes in the 2020 general election,” said Melanie Campbell, president and CEO of NCBCP. “They used intimidation and scare tactics, attempting to spread harmful disinformation about voting in an effort to silence Black voices. Their conduct cannot and will not be tolerated. This settlement serves as a marker for those who seek to engage in such efforts. There will be consequences for their actions. They will pay for the harm they cause to our democracy.”

The OAG litigated the case, alongside co-plaintiffs of voters who received the robocall and the NCBCP. The Lawyers’ Committee for Civil Rights Under Law and the law firm of Orrick, Herrington & Sutcliffe LLP represented all plaintiffs, individual and institutional, in the case.

The settlement should send an “emphatic message” to those who want to prevent Black Americans from voting, said Damon T. Hewitt, president and executive director of the Lawyers’ Committee for Civil Rights Under Law.

“Voter suppression and voter intimidation are illegal, immoral, and anti-democratic,” Hewitt said. “Regardless of whether the perpetrators are government actors or private citizens, your actions will have consequences, and you will be held accountable to the fullest extent of the law. At a time when orchestrated voter intimidation and disinformation campaigns are on the rise, we must all remain vigilant in working to ensure that access to the ballot is fair, easy, and accessible.”
thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/4582819-conservative-operatives-targeted-black-voters-robocalls-settlement/
 

Fogdog

Well-Known Member

Putting this up for an example of the fair and balanced reporting that those living in Trump's bubble are listening to.

Fact free and hard to listen to due to the emotionally charged tone and nonstop rhetorical devices that appealed to emotion without stating what is objectively true or factual. In several instances they repeated lies without justifying them to create the sense that they are true. There is no Biden crime family and Congress hasn't produced evidence that Joe Biden has lied to cover up criminal acts by himself or his family. But there it was, discussed between blondie and hunk as if these were established as fact.

Also called out is Trump's press secretary's own difficulty with words, not to mention the hypocrisy in them. "It was also politically damening to him politically as it shows that Joe Biden can hardly speak" .

 
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BudmanTX

Well-Known Member

Putting this up for an example of the fair and balanced reporting that those living in Trump's bubble are listening to.

Fact free and hard to listen to due to the emotionally charged tone and nonstop rhetorical devices that appealed to emotion without stating what is objectively true or factual. In several instances they repeated lies without justifying them to create the sense that they are true. There is no Biden crime family and Congress hasn't produced evidence that Joe Biden has lied to cover up criminal acts by himself or his family. But there it was, discussed between blondie and hunk as if these were established as fact.

Also called out is Trump's press secretary's own difficulty with words, not to mention the hypocrisy in them. "It was also politically damening to him politically as it shows that Joe Biden can hardly speak" .

Newsmax better becareful, they have a date in the court room in September......
 

cannabineer

Ursus marijanus
I posted this elsewhere, but I want to emphasize a different speculative takeaway germane to this thread.


Zoom in: "If you were a true conservative, you would actually advance border security, but what they want to do is they want to blow up border security," Rep. Andy Barr (R-Ky.) told Axios.

  • "[T]he members who scream the loudest about border security were actively and knowingly preventing us from getting it done," another member said.
What the tea leaves are suggesting to me is that campaigning on a maga platform is not a viable way forward for GOP candidates. Some of the treason caucus’s loudest voices are de facto stumping for their D opponents at this point. Gan, Boebs, Pedo might just be giving their districts to the people they profess to fear and loathe.

Sure, wishfulness plays a role in my supposition. But maybe just maybe the seams are straining in Redworld.
 

printer

Well-Known Member
Trump's map edge: Biden has tougher path to victory, veteran Dem adviser says

Just over six months from Nov. 5, longtime Democratic adviser Doug Sosnik tells Axios that while either candidate can win, President Biden has the narrower, tougher path to 270 electoral college votes, for three reasons.
Why it matters: Biden has been rising in polls since the State of the Union address. But Democrats continue to sweat their chances in the state-by-state math that determines U.S. presidents.

  1. The electoral college favors Republicans: The last two Republican presidents were first elected despite losing the popular vote.
  2. Biden can no longer count on carrying Michigan, which voted overwhelmingly Democratic in the past three election cycles.
  3. Biden's 2020 victories in the Sunbelt battleground states — Arizona, Nevada and Georgia — were due to his overwhelming support from young and non-white voters. Polling shows Biden has suffered a significant erosion with these voters during his presidency.
Sosnik maps (literally) various road-to-270 scenarios for Biden and former President Trump in an interactive N.Y. Times op-ed, and warns Dems about Minnesota:

"Recent polling shows Mr. Biden with a narrow lead in Minnesota, a state that usually votes for Democrats for president. While it is mathematically possible for Mr. Biden to win without carrying Minnesota, it is unlikely he will be elected if he cannot carry this traditionally Democratic state."
The bottom line: "My analysis of voter history and polling," Sosnik writes, "shows a map that currently favors Mr. Trump, even though [new abortion restrictions] in Arizona improve Mr. Biden's chances."

axios.com/2024/04/22/biden-trump-path-win-election-electoral-college
 

OldMedUser

Well-Known Member
Happy Monday all, got a few things for you today:

More Encouraging Polling - A new NPR/Marist poll released this morning is one of Biden’s best of the year:

51-48 (+3) Biden among registered voters

53-47 (+6) Biden among likely voters

That many polls now have Biden doing better among likely voters is very good news for us. For it suggests, as we saw in the GOP primaries, that as voters engage, become more informed, and more intent on voting Trump loses ground. This is what I believed would happen as we got deeper into the election - that as voters realized it was Biden vs the orange guy things would get better for us. And they are. The election is getting better for us.

A newly released NBC News poll, which has been among the best Trump polls of late, found Biden gaining 3 points since their last poll. It’s yet another poll showing meaningful recent movement to Biden. Here is how many points Biden has gained in a selection or recent polls (all polls via 538):

  • 8 pts - Marquette
  • 7 pts - Echelon
  • 6 pts - Morning Consult
  • 4 pts - NYT/Siena, HarrisX/Forbes, Redfield and Wilton
  • 3 pts - Big Village, NBC News
  • 2 pts - Ipsos/Reuters
The 2024 election is changing, things are clearly moving in our direction now. We have a long way to go and a lot of work to do but in every way imaginable I much rather be us than them right now.

More new, bluer election resources for you:

  • Why I’m So Optimistic We Will Win This November (Video, 4/16/24) - My latest overview of where we are in the 2024 election and why I am so optimistic about winning this year. The post also has a deep dive on recent, encouraging polling data. While it remains a close, competitive election, things have gotten bluer in recent weeks, and Trump no longer leads.
  • My Interview With the NYT - Here’s my interview with Adam Nagourney of the New York Times. It’s gotten a lot of attention. Do read. Lots of great stuff in here!
  • With Democrats, Things Get Better - The core Hopium presentation, this 30 minute deep dive on the progress America makes when Democrats are in the White House, has an extended section on the strong economic gains the country has made under Joe Biden. A must view for all the budding
    information warriors out there.
 
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