Projections of ACA impact on 2014 elections

Hiiiiii,

Just wanted to hear everyones thoughts on the future of the political parties considering recent events. I know the GOP took quite the hit during the shutdown to their approval rating. However, since Affordable Care Act is not going well, if it continues to fail I see this playing out well for the GOP. They blocked a clean continuing resolution for the purpose of defunding Obamacare, now the GOP's obsessive "Obamacare" talking points might come to fruition. I heard on NPR that technical experts were expecting that the website won't be fully functional for 6 months to a year, if this is true I believe it will greatly help the conservatives in the 2014 elections and we may see a GOP takeover of the Senate as well. This is conjecture of course, thoughts?

I think the pessimism about the web sites working are probably correct. The bigger problem for the Democrats, though, is that ACA itself is going to flop. The president promised that that 20 million currently uninsured people would become insured and costs would go down!!! The Dems promised that "if you like your current insurance, you can keep it". Both claims are lies, and anybody with half a brain knows it. Most Dems have a bit less than half a brain so they won't be convinced till they actually experience the reality, which they will by 2014 election time.

The simple truth is, the price for insurance is going to rise dramatically and lots of people are going to be kicked off their current insurance. This is already happening. The ones most victimized are going to be young, healthy people. Many of them don't have health insurance because they don't want it, not because they can't afford it. They are going to foot the bill for this clusterfuck. Losing the young voter demographic can't be good for the Dems. On the other hand, I think this whole thing is setting the stage for single-payer, i.e. full nationalization of the health care industry, which is every Democrat's wet-dream, so maybe the Democrats take a beating in 2014 but win in the long run.

Projection on 2014.... ask me that question again on the 1st of 2014, undecided.

I think it really is too early to tell. I think the midterm elections depend very much on how the ACA plays out in the next couple of years. The right says it's doomed, the left says the right is doomed. I will simply wait and see. Republicans need it to flop if they want to stay relevant in politics. They've had so much bad press, they're on the ropes. ACA being a success would be the knock out punch IMO.

That being said, I'll be truly surprised if there aren't a plethora of major obstacles for ACA. In any event, I feel theres some kind of big turning point in US politics approaching

One more point:

For ACA to work at all, then the young and healthy MUST sign up for coverage. In 2014 there is a penalty (the penaltax!) of $95.00 if you don't get health insurance, but the only mechanism to collect that penalty is for the IRS to deduct it from your income tax refund.

The young and healthy are probably going to shrug their shoulders and just pay that $95.00 penalty in 2014, and then change their withholding assignment (the W4 form) to be sure they are not owed a refund in 2015, thereby making the penaltax a non-issue. This will create two problems for the feds:
1. It will significantly reduce tax cash flow to the feds, eliminating a large part of the "interest free loan" that many Americans make when they over pay their taxes.
2. The young healthy Americans will refuse to pay the ACA penaltax because there is no enforcement mechanism to make them do so.

I predict a change to the ACA to put an enforcement mechanism in place to collect the penaltax and for the imposed penaltax to be significantly increased. If the only ones who sign up for health insurance under ACA are sick, then insurance prices will spiral out of control and the whole scheme will collapse.

lifegoesonbrah said:

Hiiiiii,

Just wanted to hear everyones thoughts on the future of the political parties considering recent events. I know the GOP took quite the hit during the shutdown to their approval rating. However, since Affordable Care Act is not going well, if it continues to fail I see this playing out well for the GOP. They blocked a clean continuing resolution for the purpose of defunding Obamacare, now the GOP's obsessive "Obamacare" talking points might come to fruition. I heard on NPR that technical experts were expecting that the website won't be fully functional for 6 months to a year, if this is true I believe it will greatly help the conservatives in the 2014 elections and we may see a GOP takeover of the Senate as well. This is conjecture of course, thoughts?

Click to expand...

I'm wondering if the Republican leadership was tipped off that the web site was going to be a disaster. They look significantly better now than they did a few weeks ago, and it would explain why they took the country through the whole affair, especially considering that Boehner and Obama supposedly had a previous agreement to avoid the fiasco. I can see the campaign now: "Millions of people being terminated from their insurance, half a billion dollars for a web site that doesn't work--do you really want these people to be in charge of your healthcare? Vote for us, we already tried to stop it!" We'll see.

The Democrats have some substantial problems: 1) Obama is now unpopular and not a boost to anyone down ballot; 2) Given point 1, Democrats are less likely to turn out to vote; 3) The Obama fundraising octopus has strangled the party's existing fundraising apparatus, and Obama doesn't have as much room to beg as he used to; 4) The Democrats are defending a lot more senate seats, many in red territory and won in the 2008 Obama landslide.

The Republicans have to contend with the fallout from the government shutdown and with tea party candidates who might be difficult sells in general elections. Until about 10 months pass and all the candidates have been chosen, it's difficult to weigh these impacts.

No one expects the Democrats to retake the house, even with the effect of the government shutdown fully considered. The real battle is in the senate, with these states in serious play: Alaska, Iowa, Louisiana, Montana, North Carolina, South Dakota, and West Virginia (this list will evolve based on the candidates). Four of the seven states I listed are retirements, which means Republican odds to flip them will be especially good. They only need to win five seats to take control. On the Democrat side, I don't see a single seat they have a realistic shot at flipping, barring a tea party primary challenge that unseats a sitting senator.

lifegoesonbrah said:

Hiiiiii,

Just wanted to hear everyones thoughts on the future of the political parties considering recent events. I know the GOP took quite the hit during the shutdown to their approval rating. However, since Affordable Care Act is not going well, if it continues to fail I see this playing out well for the GOP. They blocked a clean continuing resolution for the purpose of defunding Obamacare, now the GOP's obsessive "Obamacare" talking points might come to fruition. I heard on NPR that technical experts were expecting that the website won't be fully functional for 6 months to a year, if this is true I believe it will greatly help the conservatives in the 2014 elections and we may see a GOP takeover of the Senate as well. This is conjecture of course, thoughts?

Click to expand...

Conversly
If they fix the website and people sign up

The Republicans could be put out to pasture for the foreseeable future

Now what are the Republicans scared of other than a Black man who is President?

ChesusRice said:

Conversly
If they fix the website and people sign up

The Republicans could be put out to pasture for the foreseeable future

Now what are the Republicans scared of other than a Black man who is President?

Click to expand...

People who already got what they wanted typically cannot be relied upon to come vote. As long as Obama is president his veto power will ensure that Obamacare continues to exist, meaning there's nothing to defend.

Well if they elect Clinton in 2016, hopefully after 8 years of that, that will kill off the rest of the Democratic faithfuls, god knows that party needs to die off too.

GOD HERE said:

Well if they elect Clinton in 2016, hopefully after 8 years of that, that will kill off the rest of the Democratic faithfuls, god knows that party needs to die off too.

Click to expand...

I think it may be possible as well that, if ACA continues to fail, it will cause a split between the loyalist and the free thinkers in the Democratic party much like what we see in the GOP today. I am just hoping its not going to take 8 years of Hillary for that to happen.

lifegoesonbrah said:

I think it may be possible as well that, if ACA continues to fail, it will cause a split between the loyalist and the free thinkers in the Democratic party much like what we see in the GOP today. I am just hoping its not going to take 8 years of Hillary for that to happen.

Click to expand...

Just what we need, more neo-liberalism.

ChesusRice said:

Conversly If they fix the website and people sign up The Republicans could be put out to pasture for the foreseeable future Now what are the Republicans scared of other than a Black man who is President?

Click to expand...

Your reply is "You're a RACIST"?

I don't think much will change. With the GOP dead, the former partisans will either go democrat or Tea Bagger and we will still be left with two major parties, center right and far right. The center right will still be the malefactor and the far right will still be ridiculous while the left has no representation. The Green Party is the only left wing party in the US.

There is not one single left wing member of congress in the senate or house and no left wing state governors. There is only one left wing state legislator in the country and several city council members and mayors. The Democrat Party is center right.

abandonconflict said:

I don't think much will change. With the GOP dead, the former partisans will either go democrat or Tea Bagger and we will still be left with two major parties, center right and far right. The center right will still be the malefactor and the far right will still be ridiculous while the left has no representation. The Green Party is the only left wing party in the US.

There is not one single left wing member of congress in the senate or house and no left wing state governors. There is only one left wing state legislator in the country and several city council members and mayors. The Democrat Party is center right.

Click to expand...

If you think the GOP is dead you're calling it too early. But don't worry, it happens all the time, for both parties. Doom and gloom, it's all over, the party is gone!

But it never actually is.

abandonconflict said:

I don't think much will change. With the GOP dead, the former partisans will either go democrat or Tea Bagger and we will still be left with two major parties, center right and far right. The center right will still be the malefactor and the far right will still be ridiculous while the left has no representation. The Green Party is the only left wing party in the US.

There is not one single left wing member of congress in the senate or house and no left wing state governors. There is only one left wing state legislator in the country and several city council members and mayors. The Democrat Party is center right.

Click to expand...

There's Bernie Sanders in the senate, but he's been largely muted. While I'd agree there are left wing elements within the Green Party, it is an umbrella party, and when you take into account it's strange eco capitalist and reform minded liberals it's hard to call it "left wing". Maybe center-left.

tokeprep said:

If you think the GOP is dead you're calling it too early. But don't worry, it happens all the time, for both parties. Doom and gloom, it's all over, the party is gone!

But it never actually is.

Click to expand...

That is what your party is all about. Doom and gloom, until you have control of office and then everything is peachy. It's not a game, yet you treat it as such.

desert dude said:

One more point:

For ACA to work at all, then the young and healthy MUST sign up for coverage. In 2014 there is a penalty (the penaltax!) of $95.00 if you don't get health insurance, but the only mechanism to collect that penalty is for the IRS to deduct it from your income tax refund.

The young and healthy are probably going to shrug their shoulders and just pay that $95.00 penalty in 2014, and then change their withholding assignment (the W4 form) to be sure they are not owed a refund in 2015, thereby making the penaltax a non-issue. This will create two problems for the feds:
1. It will significantly reduce tax cash flow to the feds, eliminating a large part of the "interest free loan" that many Americans make when they over pay their taxes.
2. The young healthy Americans will refuse to pay the ACA penaltax because there is no enforcement mechanism to make them do so.

I predict a change to the ACA to put an enforcement mechanism in place to collect the penaltax and for the imposed penaltax to be significantly increased. If the only ones who sign up for health insurance under ACA are sick, then insurance prices will spiral out of control and the whole scheme will collapse.

Click to expand...

I could not have written that any better.. That is it in a nut shell..And I have still not found one person that even says they are going to sign up. They all say they will pay the fine...

ChesusRice said:

Conversly
If they fix the website and people sign up

The Republicans could be put out to pasture for the foreseeable future

Now what are the Republicans scared of other than a Black man who is President?

Click to expand...

He's a mulatto, mixed race.

Also many people won't sign up because they approve of the program. They will sign up because they have been trained to be obedient and they also fear what will happen to them if they refuse. Why do you hate freedom so much?

nitro harley said:

I could not have written that any better.. That is it in a nut shell..And I have still not found one person that even says they are going to sign up. They all say they will pay the fine...

Click to expand...

Or door #3, don't sign up, tell them to take their fine and shit in their hat.

see4 said:

That is what your party is all about. Doom and gloom, until you have control of office and then everything is peachy. It's not a game, yet you treat it as such.

Click to expand...

What is this "your party" business? What you just said applies to both parties. Whichever party is out of office: doom and gloom, country gone to hell. Whichever party is in office: everything is peachy, getting better! Welcome to politics. You don't win elections from the outside telling people that things are great; likewise, you don't stay inside telling people that things are terrible.

I'm not treating it as a game, the politicians on both sides and the political hacks on both sides are, because they really don't care about making this country better so much as they care about winning and having power for themselves.