Gavita's are they really worth the price ??

Shugglet said:

You guys dont think taxes will inflate the costs associated with it? Not to mention for it to be sold publicly it needs to be lab tested, does it not?

History has taught us, and is teaching us, this will be a loooong drawn out process. As long as the Feds refuse to play ball prices wont fall like described.

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Taxes will help keep prices higher but not sure how long those super high taxes will last as things become fully legal federally. Marijuana is a potentially big industry the main problem is it's really not THAT big as far as how much growing it takes to meet demand and once you have a market in oversupply price can drop to any ridiculous number. Farmers have bills to pay and if you have no money coming in you gotta take what you can get. I mentioned Oregon earier because Oregon has said they aren't going to set a limit on producer licenses and based on some quick analysis they're looking at a massive oversupply situation starting probably around November of 2017.

Consider this:

Here is a very relevant paper on a study the University of Washington did:

http://www.cannalawblog.com/washington-state-cannabis-report/

Washington currently has 10 million "potential" square feet of total producer canopy space allocated for all cannabis markets. I say potential because they've set caps and haven't allocated all of that.

Based off that report at the link above the total canopy needed for current WA med cannabis market is 2 million square feet. The total market is estimated at 1/3 medical, 1/3 recreational, and 1/3 illicit, which would require 6 million square feet of total combined indoor/outdoor intra-state canopy square footage to service. 6 million square feet is roughly ~137 acres. As far as farming goes thats not jack! I grew up with at least 20 various ag crop fields bigger than that within 5 minutes of me. And that's 137 acres of combined indoor/outdoor weed needed for the entire state!

Next, relating this to the OR market. Oregon says there are no limits to how many producers can obtain licenses. If you go to the following link you can see there are currently 829 Oregon producers who have submitted applications:

http://www.oregon.gov/olcc/marijuana/Documents/mj_app_stats_by_county.pdf

If 1/2 of these are tier 1 (20 thousand square feet maximum) and half are tier 2 (40 thousand square feet maximum) that's already ~24.9 million square feet of total canopy space, or ~571 total acres. That's more than triple the canopy space needed to service the WA markets and likely over the next year there will be a lot more producers applying as they secure funding.

Washington - 6.9 million population
Oregon - 4.1 million population

That also doesn't factor in the more lax individual non-producer laws in OR. Any individual who wants can grow 4 plants.

It'll take a couple years for all those producers to get licensed and built out and rolling, but unfortunately I feel there are gonna be a ton of unhappy OR producers in the next couple of years as the OR market appears to be headed towards massive oversupply. Also consider Oregon producers were already struggling before all these producers started applying for licenses and doing massive buildouts.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/even-with-legalization--making-money-from-marijuana-in-oregon-could-be-tough-190159408.html

The place to be IMO is in the service industries: packaging, edibles, concentrates etc. and various other service industries. Someone mentioned earlier the place to be during the gold rush was the guy selling shovels lol IMO the producers that thrive are gonna be the ones that can keep their costs down and cash flow at low prices while still producing high quality product.

Shugglet said:

You guys dont think taxes will inflate the costs associated with it? Not to mention for it to be sold publicly it needs to be lab tested, does it not?

History has taught us, and is teaching us, this will be a loooong drawn out process. As long as the Feds refuse to play ball prices wont fall like described.

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This is what i thought as well.

kelly1376 said:

Taxes will help keep prices higher but not sure how long those super high taxes will last as things become fully legal federally. Marijuana is a potentially big industry the main problem is it's really not THAT big as far as how much growing it takes to meet demand and once you have a market in oversupply price can drop to any ridiculous number. Farmers have bills to pay and if you have no money coming in you gotta take what you can get. I mentioned Oregon earier because Oregon has said they aren't going to set a limit on producer licenses and based on some quick analysis they're looking at a massive oversupply situation starting probably around November of 2017.

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So your saying that Oregon and California residents are going to be the number one consumers of the rec cannabis once one of them starts their program and the other gets voted in? Thats the part where i get confused a little. where i live every 4th house has a home garden and they're patients and help other patients. So basically everyone already has cannabis . And if you have overages you can vend to a dispensary or do patient to patient moves to get others medication. Honestly I only see what your taking about if the Ag startups get jellious that their shit aint moving, because Billy down the road there grows an og that would blow your fucking socks off and that lady Sara 7 blocks away grows a dank ass Orange that you have to try. So then Tillray drops their millions and pays off bitches to look at our electric bills and they start invading our privacy and try to stop medical gardening. So @kelly1376 you want that type of government run shit in your country? Where they tell you what your going to consume and what your not. Even though Sara's cannabis is 100 times better then yours and Tillrays? Tell us your thoughts.

a mongo frog said:

This is what i thought as well.

So your saying that Oregon and California residents are going to be the number one consumers of the rec cannabis once one of them starts their program and the other gets voted in? Thats the part where i get confused a little. where i live every 4th house has a home garden and they're patients and help other patients. So basically everyone already has cannabis . And if you have overages you can vend to a dispensary or do patient to patient moves to get others medication. Honestly I only see what your taking about if the Ag startups get jellious that their shit aint moving, because Billy down the road there grows an og that would blow your fucking socks off and that lady Sara 7 blocks away grows a dank ass Orange that you have to try. So then Tillray drops their millions and pays off bitches to look at our electric bills and they start invading our privacy and try to stop medical gardening. So @kelly1376 you want that type of government run shit in your country? Where they tell you what your going to consume and what your not. Even though Sara's cannabis is 100 times better then yours and Tillrays? Tell us your thoughts.

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Lady Sara 7 Orange....good name for a strain bro. I like it.

a mongo frog said:

This is what i thought as well.

So your saying that Oregon and California residents are going to be the number one consumers of the rec cannabis once one of them starts their program and the other gets voted in? Thats the part where i get confused a little. where i live every 4th house has a home garden and they're patients and help other patients. So basically everyone already has cannabis . And if you have overages you can vend to a dispensary or do patient to patient moves to get others medication. Honestly I only see what your taking about if the Ag startups get jellious that their shit aint moving, because Billy down the road there grows an og that would blow your fucking socks off and that lady Sara 7 blocks away grows a dank ass Orange that you have to try. So then Tillray drops their millions and pays off bitches to look at our electric bills and they start invading our privacy and try to stop medical gardening. So @kelly1376 you want that type of government run shit in your country? Where they tell you what your going to consume and what your not. Even though Sara's cannabis is 100 times better then yours and Tillrays? Tell us your thoughts.

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I'm not talking about any government intervention. I dont really know too much about the gaffe between medical and recreational in california - have heard a little but haven't looked into it much. All I'm saying is if the dispensaries you sell to have 100 other Saras and 100 other Billys bringing them stuff the premium likely will no longer exist. And that likely will happen as laws are relaxed. It's like any other commodity. Not everybody is a good grower but they aren't so rare that they can't be found. Even people going into the business blind can pay for good genetics and hire good growers and learn the ropes.

kelly1376 said:

I'm not talking about any government intervention

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You mean everything you've been saying about big Ag is not government intervention?

a mongo frog said:

You mean everything you've been saying about big Ag is not government intervention?

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I dont see how making things more legal is more government intervention than keeping things illegal. What I've been referring to isn't big Ag at all but small ag. All those oregon licenses going in are all considered small mom and pop operations because they're restricted to no more than an acre of total production. It's the same in washington state. In agriculture an acre for a given crop is typically considered tiny.

Honestly I'm not sure the market is really big enough for truly big ag (monsanto, J.R. Reynolds etc) to ever get involved on the production end. Especially if there's any lean towards keeping operations relatively small.

Running some numbers.

The U.S. has a population of 318.9 million

If 15% of the population uses weed thats 47.8 million users

Based on this report the "average" user consumes 100 grams per year:

http://business.time.com/2013/05/20/how-much-will-a-legal-marijuana-habit-cost-you/

So 100 grams per person & 47.8 million users thats 10.5 million pounds total

Lets say on average 1 acre of production (combined indoor, outdoor, greenhouse) produces an average of 3000 pounds per year

That's 3000 pounds per acre

So 3,500 acres of total production

Or 3,500 one acre producers. Or average of a paltry 67 one acre producers per state. Obviously some states will have more and some less.

Now that 10.5 million pounds sounds huge when you put a price tag on it at todays current prices (30 to 50 billion a year). But it doesn't sound so big when you break it down like I did. The numbers tend to indicate the entire market can be serviced by a relatively few mom and pop 1 acre outfits.

So basically, big agriculture will be priced out of it before it can even enter the market. The only thing is, the big players could get into the genetics side of things, but I would question whether or not the financial incentives are there for them to bother entering the market.

I read a good amount of this thread. Ok so for all those that say their stuff is so good and no big company could ever compare, well, CONCENTRATES. They can grow 1000 acres of seeded low grade bud, sell the seeds to the food industry, sell the fiber to the textile industry and run the leaf and bud through whatever processes and come out with concentrates that can beat anything you could grow. I'm sure they will be able to get 99.9% thc, 99.9% cbd, 99.9% every other cannabinoid and 99.9% every terpene imaginable and make whatever combination imaginable to help your patients better than anything you could ever grow and make EXACTLY what helps the patient the best, not just what does better than the other one.

Big companies WILL take over a HUGE chunk of the market once federally legal and they will do it by making the most money on the food and textile portions because the concentrates will be so overly abundant that there won't be a huge profit to be made on them unless you're doing them on their scale.

J-Icky said:

I read a good amount of this thread. Ok so for all those that say their stuff is so good and no big company could ever compare, well, CONCENTRATES. They can grow 1000 acres of seeded low grade bud, sell the seeds to the food industry, sell the fiber to the textile industry and run the leaf and bud through whatever processes and come out with concentrates that can beat anything you could grow. I'm sure they will be able to get 99.9% thc, 99.9% cbd, 99.9% every other cannabinoid and 99.9% every terpene imaginable and make whatever combination imaginable to help your patients better than anything you could ever grow and make EXACTLY what helps the patient the best, not just what does better than the other one.

Big companies WILL take over a HUGE chunk of the market once federally legal and they will do it by making the most money on the food and textile portions because the concentrates will be so overly abundant that there won't be a huge profit to be made on them unless you're doing them on their scale.

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What the fuck are you on? We're talking about gavita lamps and how well they perform and if there worth the price. I think they are. How good does your garden grow with DE technology? Tell us about your pro's and cons. A few pice would be sweet. Thanks.

You'll all be smoking Canadian weed in a year or two..muahaha!!

redi jedi said:

You'll all be smoking Canadian weed in a year or two..muahaha!!

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Your right too. Tillrays fucking about ready to set up shop in my neighborhood.

a mongo frog said:

What the fuck are you on? We're talking about gavita lamps and how well they perform and if there worth the price. I think they are. How good does your garden grow with DE technology? Tell us about your pro's and cons. A few pice would be sweet. Thanks.

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LOL you've been talking about legalizing and rec weed and big ag and suddenly i make a comment and you jump on the OP like thats whats been talked about. So please tell me all about gavitas and how well they do or don't do and if they're worth it and ignore the fact that most of this thread is really about people trying to say that legalization won't make the price plummet and how their small grow will produce the best and still get $3000 a lb when you will be able to get mass grown greenhouse sensi thats maybe slightly less potent and resiny for like $300 a lb or concentrates with unlimited cannabinoid and terpene combinations for a few dollars agram.

Sorry everyone that loves the $2-3000 a lb price. Prices will plummet and already are dropping with limited legalization. Once fully federal legalization hits supply will crush demand and taxes will be the only thing keeping it from being worth more than $10-20 a lb

J-Icky said:

LOL you've been talking about legalizing and rec weed and big ag and suddenly i make a comment and you jump on the OP like thats whats been talked about. So please tell me all about gavitas and how well they do or don't do and if they're worth it and ignore the fact that most of this thread is really about people trying to say that legalization won't make the price plummet and how their small grow will produce the best and still get $3000 a lb when you will be able to get mass grown greenhouse sensi thats maybe slightly less potent and resiny for like $300 a lb or concentrates with unlimited cannabinoid and terpene combinations for a few dollars agram.

Sorry everyone that loves the $2-3000 a lb price. Prices will plummet and already are dropping with limited legalization. Once fully federal legalization hits supply will crush demand and taxes will be the only thing keeping it from being worth more than $10-20 a lb

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And to bring it back on topic, it will be probably ~10-20yrs easy before your price points see the light of day, so youll easily be able to pay off that shiny new Gavita long before weed prices bottom out.

Shugglet said:

And to bring it back on topic, it will be probably ~10-20yrs easy before your price points see the light of day, so youll easily be able to pay off that shiny new Gavita long before weed prices bottom out.

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To be completely honest, with todays market, you could pay that light off within the first grow.

Now as for if its worth it, in my opinion, that depends on your growing style. If you're growing your plants to be bigger than 3' at harvest then I would def get a de or lec lamp. Now if you're planning on running a SOG style grow then I would honestly go with a good COB led. The COBs will give you good spectrum and coverage with multiple points of light with good efficiency but won't penetrate a deep canopy. The DE and LECs will give just as good of a spectrum with a single, but powerful and penetrating point of light but won't be as efficient
You could get some of those high power COBs to get more penetration but to me that removes one of the best parts of cobs, the spread of light. They may end up saving you some money on a/c but honestly until there is more real world results with them I wouldn't trust that they will run cooler and keep the room cooler. with them being a tad more costly upfront it would suck to pay that much and still have to run a bunch of fans and a/c to keep the room cool when you could've saved upfront with an lec or de and still had similar operating costs.

J-Icky said:

LOL you've been talking about legalizing and rec weed and big ag and suddenly i make a comment and you jump on the OP like thats whats been talked about. So please tell me all about gavitas and how well they do or don't do and if they're worth it and ignore the fact that most of this thread is really about people trying to say that legalization won't make the price plummet and how their small grow will produce the best and still get $3000 a lb when you will be able to get mass grown greenhouse sensi thats maybe slightly less potent and resiny for like $300 a lb or concentrates with unlimited cannabinoid and terpene combinations for a few dollars agram.

Sorry everyone that loves the $2-3000 a lb price. Prices will plummet and already are dropping with limited legalization. Once fully federal legalization hits supply will crush demand and taxes will be the only thing keeping it from being worth more than $10-20 a lb

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Bro i was just stating my view. Why try to jump all over me and try to get all sexual and shit? Maybe I'm wrong about my views, who cares? I don't think your right is all, you don't think I'm right. No biggie. Honestly i don't even think California is going to get rec cannabis even passed in november. I think its going to be the same vote as last time. Barley loosing. If you seriously want to talk DE we can. I've got DE pics, lab results, tons of shit all over this site. What do you want to know? They are awesome, they run hot, foot prints are massive at 1000 watts, its over 2 pounds a light with the smallest yielding strains. Did i mention they were hot?

a mongo frog said:

Bro i was just stating my view. Why try to jump all over me and try to get all sexual and shit? Maybe I'm wrong about my views, who cares? I don't think your right is all, you don't think I'm right. No biggie. Honestly i don't even think California is going to get rec cannabis even passed in november. I think its going to be the same vote as last time. Barley loosing. If you seriously want to talk DE we can. I've got DE pics, lab results, tons of shit all over this site. What do you want to know? They are awesome, they run hot, foot prints are massive at 1000 watts, its over 2 pounds a light with the smallest yielding strains. Did i mention they were hot?

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I think there's a bit of misconception between gavitas and heat. Yes they do run hot but they run hot because they're putting out a TON of light, not because they're creating a ton of wasted heat. A gavita DE puts out 1.82 umols per watt that's amazing efficiency. It's about double the efficiency of any non COB blurple LED. To equal the photon output of a gavita 1000 would take 1600 watts worth of regular 400 HPS. The efficiency is nearly as good as some of the higher end Cobs and does it in a 1000 watt fixture. 800-1000 watts of COB per 5 x 5 would run hot as hell too but nobody runs that many cob watts. For what they give for ~$400 yeah I think they're definitely worth it

kelly1376 said:

I think there's a bit of misconception between gavitas and heat.

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Id have to respectfully disagree there. Hot as fuck is what i think DE's run. Plants seem to love them though. And again id have to disagree on your 25 square feet at 800-1000 with the cobs. Couple guys on here have rocked over 2 pounds with those wattages in that foot print on this site. Their veg time was super long but wheat ever. Im sure you've seen the grows. Im not qualified to talk on the cob lighting i have 750 watts of it, but i haven't ran it yet. Im going to test vs the DE though.

kelly1376 said:

I think there's a bit of misconception between gavitas and heat. Yes they do run hot but they run hot because they're putting out a TON of light, not because they're creating a ton of wasted heat. A gavita DE puts out 1.82 umols per watt that's amazing efficiency. It's about double the efficiency of any non COB blurple LED. To equal the photon output of a gavita 1000 would take 1600 watts worth of regular 400 HPS. The efficiency is nearly as good as some of the higher end Cobs and does it in a 1000 watt fixture. 800-1000 watts of COB per 5 x 5 would run hot as hell too but nobody runs that many cob watts. For what they give for ~$400 yeah I think they're definitely worth it

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Yeah thats not exactly accurate. While the Gavita is a great light, that doesnt take PPFD into account which is really the only thing that matters. I run one and the heat that comes out brings the room up to 105 without AC. While the LEDs keep it at just the right spot.

For instance my 800W Cree cob puts out 4.53 umol/s/W with losses included. And puts out 830 PPFD over the WHOLE 5x5 area. Heres the whole calculation so you have all the details.

CXB3590DB36V4000K 16 COBS @1.4A ON 1.813 PROFILE HEATSINK
25 SQ.FT. CANOPY 94% EFFICIENT DRIVER @10 CENTS PER KWH
Total power watts at the wall: 831.91
Cobs power watts: 782
Total voltage forward: 558
Total lumens: 154163
Total PAR watts assuming 10% loss: 430
Total PPF: 1947.9
PPFD based on canopy area: 838.68
PAR watts per sq.ft.: 17.2
Cob efficiency: 61.03%
Power watts per sq.ft.: 31.28
Voltage forward per cob: 34.89
Lumens per watt: 197.14
Heatsink riser thickness / number of fins / fin's length: 0.3in/6/0.95in
Heatsink area per inch: 100.94 cm^2
Total heat watts: 305
umol/s/W / CRI: 4.53 / 80CRI
COB cost dollar per PAR watt: $1.87
Electric cost @12/12 in 30 days: $30.45
Electric cost @18/6 in 30 days: $45.42
Cost per cob: $50.17
Total cobs cost: $803

So that would be twice as good as a Gavita in output and without a hotspot in the center.

Not to mention I can run it at the optimum 86 Degrees F without ever worrying about it being too hot. (thats the best growth temp for my specific PPFD, no you do not need extra CO2 for this temp)

The different numbers are degrees in Celsius the more heat the higher the growth rate. Where the dip is at the far right is where you need CO2.

Well damn ...... Men lie women lie but numbers don't.

a mongo frog said:

Id have to respectfully disagree there. Hot as fuck is what i think DE's run. Plants seem to love them though. And again id have to disagree on your 25 square feet at 800-1000 with the cobs. Couple guys on here have rocked over 2 pounds with those wattages in that foot print on this site. Their veg time was super long but wheat ever. Im sure you've seen the grows. Im not qualified to talk on the cob lighting i have 750 watts of it, but i haven't ran it yet. Im going to test vs the DE though.

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mongo your limited build pics look good and im def gunna go see if i can find some flat aluminum now lol.also if you plan to run 750w of cob next to a gavita 750 your going to be amazed at the cobs lol.