does anyone else get the feeling...

jeff f

jeff f

New Member
that these idiots in the white house are panicking?

so now we are releasing reserve oil? wtf?

housing in the toilet, unemployment claims rising again, fuel at record high, food at record high, QE failing miserably, bernanke looked like a deer in the headlights yesterday, stocks dont look too hot......

it looks to me that these guys have no clue.
 
sync0s

sync0s

Well-Known Member
Politics from mr obama. He'll use this, killing osama, and health care to promote his reelection.
 
S

SSHZ

Well-Known Member
Bad new all around today- housing, unemployment, stock market, 1 of 7 on food stamps......... next year will be the worse year since 1929. Then I expect things will turn around and slowly improve. My Roth IRA, which I've been paying into for 11 years monthly- is still worth less than the money I've put into it. My house has lost $225,000 in value in less then 3 years. And add the 20% in inflation that makes your money worth less- Obama will not win re-election with these issues going on. NO CHANCE. He's already lost most of the independents that voted for him. The Dem's have no clue except mo money, mo money, mo money!
 
mame

mame

Well-Known Member
Jeff, your perspective is always interesting I'll give you that lol...

The whole oil reserve thing is at least partially politics but there are other incentives as well... One of those incentives being that driving prices down in a way acts as a bit of a stimulus. Consider this: If gasoline prices at the pump were to go to $3 (I've got an argument justifying this as possbile - although optimistic - in a moment), down from the recent national average around $4 thats $100 billion of annualized spending that will almost surely now be spent elsewhere. In the long term, it can't keep up and prices will go back up when the extra supply dries up... but in the short term this is good news.

About $3 gas... Personally, I find this hard to believe. Gas is around $3.60 around here and I dont see US reserves effecting prices enough to get them to $3... Nonetheless there is a coherent argument for this. Many experts believe that the true price of crude should be between $70-$80 a barrel, if crude was this low we probably would have something near $3 gas. These same experts believe that the main cause for the extra cost is speculation... So what is the White house thinking? Well, speculators speculate. They're driven by data and projections, sure, but they're also driven by world events. The White house may be betting that by tapping reserves the speculators speculate their way right out of the crude market - at least temporarily (many will buy again when US reserves are out of play again). Because of speculation, you have the potential for an otherwise insignificant move by the U.S. to really have a great effect(especially if many of those speculators dont come back, allowing for price drops to remain longer).

Now, there are a couple of obstacles to this plan as well... Mainly, profit taking, which slows the actual passing of savings that you would expect to occur; But that's capitalism.

This action by the White House does seem desperate - but not really because they dont have a "clue". More like, they dont have any options... If the economy is suffering from excess capacity (because demand is low, unemployment is high) and you're in the kind of political environment where any stimulus spending is highly unlikely at best and impossible at worst (yay Republicans!:roll:) than you're going to start looking for unorthodox ways to boost consumer spending - or in this case - shift it.

Again, desperate? Yes. Stupid? No... I'd argue optimistic, maybe even genius(just imagine if the theory actually ended up panning out!). There aren't really any negative effects... So why not? It seems anything is better than nothing at this point.
20% in inflation
Click to expand...
lol...
 
jeff f

jeff f

New Member
mame said:
Jeff, your perspective is always interesting I'll give you that lol...

The whole oil reserve thing is at least partially politics but there are other incentives as well... One of those incentives being that driving prices down in a way acts as a bit of a stimulus. Consider this: If gasoline prices at the pump were to go to $3 (I've got an argument justifying this as possbile - although optimistic - in a moment), down from the recent national average around $4 thats $100 billion of annualized spending that will almost surely now be spent elsewhere. In the long term, it can't keep up and prices will go back up when the extra supply dries up... but in the short term this is good news.

About $3 gas... Personally, I find this hard to believe. Gas is around $3.60 around here and I dont see US reserves effecting prices enough to get them to $3... Nonetheless there is a coherent argument for this. Many experts believe that the true price of crude should be between $70-$80 a barrel, if crude was this low we probably would have something near $3 gas. These same experts believe that the main cause for the extra cost is speculation... So what is the White house thinking? Well, speculators speculate. They're driven by data and projections, sure, but they're also driven by world events. The White house may be betting that by tapping reserves the speculators speculate their way right out of the crude market - at least temporarily (many will buy again when US reserves are out of play again). Because of speculation, you have the potential for an otherwise insignificant move by the U.S. to really have a great effect(especially if many of those speculators dont come back, allowing for price drops to remain longer).

Now, there are a couple of obstacles to this plan as well... Mainly, profit taking, which slows the actual passing of savings that you would expect to occur; But that's capitalism.

This action by the White House does seem desperate - but not really because they dont have a "clue". More like, they dont have any options... If the economy is suffering from excess capacity (because demand is low, unemployment is high) and you're in the kind of political environment where any stimulus spending is highly unlikely at best and impossible at worst (yay Republicans!:roll:) than you're going to start looking for unorthodox ways to boost consumer spending - or in this case - shift it.

Again, desperate? Yes. Stupid? No... I'd argue optimistic, maybe even genius(just imagine if the theory actually ended up panning out!). There aren't really any negative effects... So why not? It seems anything is better than nothing at this point.

lol...
Click to expand...

dont i remember recently someone telling me the president could do nothing to change the price of oil.....hmmmm....let me search my memory....cant remember his name but its on the tip of my tongue...

go back and look at my economic predictions over the last 2 years in this forum. i will bet a dollar to a donut i am more accurate than your God.....oops, sorry, i mean krugman

and everything we were told by your side has been a bust. unemployemt at 8 percent, shovel ready jobs, QE 1 and 2, greece 1, now 2. your keynsian has been wrong 100 percent of the time.

how do you keep hanging in there? you are persistant, i'll give you that. wrong! but persistant
 
mame

mame

Well-Known Member
jeff f said:
dont i remember recently someone telling me the president could do nothing to change the price of oil.....hmmmm....let me search my memory....cant remember his name but its on the tip of my tongue...

go back and look at my economic predictions over the last 2 years in this forum. i will bet a dollar to a donut i am more accurate than your God.....oops, sorry, i mean krugman

and everything we were told by your side has been a bust. unemployemt at 8 percent, shovel ready jobs, QE 1 and 2, greece 1, now 2. your keynsian has been wrong 100 percent of the time.

how do you keep hanging in there? you are persistant, i'll give you that. wrong! but persistant
Click to expand...
If you're implying that I flip flopped on the issue, I didn't. In my previous post:
About $3 gas... Personally, I find this hard to believe. Gas is around $3.60 around here and I dont see US reserves effecting prices enough to get them to $3...
Click to expand...
Also, I'll be waiting for you to actually prove Keynesianism has been wrong at anything. You attack Keynesianism broadly as if you actually know what you're talking about but you're hardly specific. How exactly has Keynesianism been wrong 100% of the time? Don't just say "QE1, QE2". Specifics.

edit: This slipped my mind, to even further show that I didn't flop on this issue in that old thread I said:
So basically, my prediction is this: There may be a small drop in the price of crude oil due to the psycological impact in markets, but it wont be significant and more importantly it wont bend the curve.
Click to expand...
 
jeff f

jeff f

New Member
mame said:
If you're implying that I flip flopped on the issue, I didn't. In my previous post:
Also, I'll be waiting for you to actually prove Keynesianism has been wrong at anything. You attack Keynesianism broadly as if you actually know what you're talking about but you're hardly specific. How exactly has Keynesianism been wrong 100% of the time? Don't just say "QE1, QE2". Specifics.
Click to expand...
what would be easier is for you to tell me where its been right. or were you hoping that unemployment would go up and housing would go down. if thats your plan, it worked perfectly.

you have nobody else to blame here mame, its all on your team. not one republican law on the books yet, not a single one not even a budget. you own this ecomony and guess what? its powning you.

unleash the free market. tell the govt to take a fuck. the working people of this country will bring it back. happens every time and especially at the end of the fdr debacle. a free peoples enginuity won the war and brought prosperity,. not your prescious planners.
 
sync0s

sync0s

Well-Known Member
Oil companies reporting record profits shows one thing: supply will not affect the price. It's all politics. He knows people wanted osama dead, he knows people want oil drilling at home, he knows people want health care, he knows people want out of afghan and iraq. He is going to hit the campaign trail next year and start a war cry that he did so much that the last president didn't do and he stuck to his "change" promises. It's all a bid for reelection. Business as usual.
 
txhazard

txhazard

Well-Known Member
sync0s said:
Oil companies reporting record profits shows one thing: supply will not affect the price. It's all politics. He knows people wanted osama dead, he knows people want oil drilling at home, he knows people want health care, he knows people want out of afghan and iraq. He is going to hit the campaign trail next year and start a war cry that he did so much that the last president didn't do and he stuck to his "change" promises. It's all a bid for reelection. Business as usual.
Click to expand...
I Agree. :wall:
 
Ernst

Ernst

Well-Known Member
Opec voted to not increase production and instead aimed at stabilizing prices.
Then Saudi Arabia went on it's own and raised production but that will not change the price of gas now unless local supply can be increased and we don't buy gas if we can avoid it.

I was listening to commentators explain that Saudi Arabia doesn't want us to shy away from oil so it's better to lose some profits now rather than for demand to go down long term.

So, yes it's political and people can't work for low wages when everything else is high and low labor costs are what many say we need.
 
N

NoDrama

Well-Known Member
We could have triple the oil we have now and yet the price of gasoline will hardly budge. Know why? cuz cars run on Gasoline, not oil. How many refineries do we have? Who owns those refineries? Can we build any new ones to refine all that reserve oil?

This move will only depress the price of oil so that the speculators can just get their hands on more of it. Then prices will go even higher, classic market move. Exhaust all supplies so that when the oil price is killing us all they can then tighten their grip a bit more and really squeeze our testicles.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top