My gold thesis...And why looking for shorting oppurtunity....

[WHODAT@THADOR]

My reason to put this up is just this to put it up and share how im trading Why i think what im thinking about on a specific Trade...... Up above is a copy of my GC 08-14 weekly chart ......I am currently bearish until shown otherwise and believe gold to be in a position to break out up or down.....Either way I will not add to my short position unless the symetrical triangle is broken or the bulls attempt to drive through the PI retracement .314% ....But I see well calculated risk/reward here either way..There are two legs of this down trend both coming into the .786 extensions.......So IF the triangle fails it is very likely to replicate our first leg ....Lets call him A and the turqouise B....... our B leg comes in at the 944.00 range.......if I wait till my confirmation buy 1 contract of gold it replicates thats a 350.00 move.......my one 1319.00 bar is now worth 37319.00....If I wait untill I have a confirmed break out to the upside I cover my short position and then go long looking for a run to the 50% or ,618 Retracement which both come in 1488.00-1561.00 Thus earning me 200.00 bux a contract or 20,000 on my 1319.00 investment.......Entries will be made with stops upon confirmation and will trail with parablics and fibs....Below is a daily showing the two other legs I measued for fib ratios better....This is all based upon technicals no fundamentals ....Fundamentals constantly shift and can be perceived falsely and tied into to much emotions.....But if I was goin to even glance at it that way it would be with market correlation's which are that we are in a BULL market until shown other wise use pullbacks as buying oppurtunities and sell gold...be wise in your trading.......Anybody else got any to share?
WHODAT

 

[WHODAT@THADOR]

Update.....IMO still to be long gold as a commodity is very aggressive.....As seen by the oval there is the air pocket in trader commitment which gold bulls would hope to see a push to the .50 or .618 retracement of the current down trend.....(SEE ABOVE CHARTS) .......The Blue arrow would be the denominator coming in at the 1321-1325 level we closed today below that ...Yet above the 1317.50 handle(strike) Maybe a push tommorow? If so it is to be sold Looking for resistance in the 30 & 50(wishfull thinking) ....Further confirmation of my bear theory can be seen in cup and handle breakout (green arrow) ...Wheres the follow through? Price action digestion? Then why down on down day? Anywayz if I was long gold it would be through Out of the money call options on GLD 140.00 strikes through 150.00...Spread maybe with a year of time on it.... paying pennies on the dollar.....IDK like I said just my opinion I guess



Sorry here is actual closing chart

 

[chernobe]

How do you feel about silver?

 

[WHODAT@THADOR]

I'll run a chart on it tomorrow......I pretty much just sit on gold//oil ,Dow and russell....

 

[chernobe]

All very good thing imo. I do the silver myself, dont have as much as I would like but it is definatly on the right track. Letting it sit a while too maybe 20 years or so unless something terrible happens. Saved my ass a couple years back, best savings account Ive ever had. Didnt mean to steer this thread off course, i just love talking metals. Silver is the Poor mans gold too so I figured why not drop in. Nice chart too btw

 

[WHODAT@THADOR]

Thats awesome BTW thats not off subject...I wouldn't mine seeing other peoples work and there opinions on what they are currently trading

 

[WHODAT@THADOR]

When my 2 yrold ALLOWS it I got todays Price Action to post

 

[Saerimmner]

Those last 2 charts kinda look like Lemmings levels from the 90`s

 

[WHODAT@THADOR]

Those last 2 charts kinda look like Lemmings levels from the 90`s

Not familiar with Lemmings level?

 

[WHODAT@THADOR]

So I will be quick.......This is my 250t I trade off of daily on GC
This morning saw a rally off of the dominator 1321-22........Three double bottoms(Blue,orange,green) Corresponding arrows to symetrical triangles ....which correspond with dominator(daily committment levels)support....Pink arrow saw a rally(push) to the 30'S or .618 extension which had bullish confirmation with the swing high of the double bottom taken out.........Which coincidentaly led to a decline back into the 26-28 handles....Moral if you were looking for a rally with confirmation after closing above 1317.50 ya got it with confirmation and collected a round a grand per contract on the move .....if you were waiting at retracement with sell limit orders you also collected another 600.00......both were discussed yesterday and known about ahead of time........
Silver

I didnt check silver out on a higher timeframe ...But the chart looks familar....except you have a descending triangle breakout ....Look for test of former trendline to verify as they tend to pull back in.....resistance at 24.25 (.382)look for a test of .50 or .618 levels IF new bull trend is verified otherwise be lookin for a short and a continuation of the bear trend with a move into the .382 or the replication of A(yellow trend) by the B(Blue) Note the oversold RSI I would be looking for short rally to create futher Bearish divergence make a Lower High........That is completly just a quick glance and opinion so dont go put your savings either way without a confirmation candlestick on the DAILY chart

 

[chernobe]

Yes some of that is the tail end of some high prices 30-40 range we had about 2 or 3 years back. Why it went up like that who knows but i intend to be sitting on a big pile of it for the next round. From what i can see every 10-15 years silver has gone up 300%. $5-$20 in the last years and $1-$5 before that. Some of that is relevant to the inflation of the USD but its not totally the cause either. Id like to ask your opinion on something. I have my own thoughts on this but I would like to hear yours as well. Historically for the last 2000 years or so the gold to silver ratio has been about 16:1. But in more recent times it is more like 40:1 or greater. Im sure ill see the gap closing in my lifetime but do you think it will be from golds decline or silvers increase? I think it will be a combination of both, with gold dropping some and silver increasing a lot. I cant say if it will ever be 16:1 but i dont think 25:1 is unreasonable to see. What are your feelings on this?

 

[WHODAT@THADOR]

Yes some of that is the tail end of some high prices 30-40 range we had about 2 or 3 years back. Why it went up like that who knows but i intend to be sitting on a big pile of it for the next round. From what i can see every 10-15 years silver has gone up 300%. $5-$20 in the last years and $1-$5 before that. Some of that is relevant to the inflation of the USD but its not totally the cause either. Id like to ask your opinion on something. I have my own thoughts on this but I would like to hear yours as well. Historically for the last 2000 years or so the gold to silver ratio has been about 16:1. But in more recent times it is more like 40:1 or greater. Im sure ill see the gap closing in my lifetime but do you think it will be from golds decline or silvers increase? I think it will be a combination of both, with gold dropping some and silver increasing a lot. I cant say if it will ever be 16:1 but i dont think 25:1 is unreasonable to see. What are your feelings on this?

Hmmm......You asked me a good one there......I dunno...LMFAOJ/K ....IMO Silver will eek out gains Because of inflation but it will be as you have said over very many years......As for the price gap closing in I do believe you will see a decline in gold but it will probably be just price gyrating around the MEAN in response to what stages of each economic cycle we are in? But I do believe The real answer you are looking for lies in the fact that silver is more of a semi-precious metal as Gold Holds a much higher status as a precious metal that also happens to be involved in just about every gadget Modern society uses?That is also why I like platinum and palladium(Especially Palladium) As there are only a handful of known mines Most being in Russia and South Africa and as time goes on and the demand increases yet they cannot locate more places to mine price will skyrocket....Thats actually one of the same reasons I like Magnesium as well They are both much RARER elements Magnesium Which I believe off the top of my head to be the rarer and hardest to mine and is expected to be in extreme short supply(WSJ article) in the upcoming years also has the benefit of the mines be located in 3rd world war torn african countries......I have been thinking for the last few months about nabbing up a bunch of it......Just haven't pulled the trigger yet

 

[WHODAT@THADOR]

The theory with magnesium is that its used in just about most metals as byproducts not to mention everything else.... the refinement processes and abstraction are time consuming the demand will eventually overwhelm supply.....But Idk like i said

 

[WHODAT@THADOR]

Gold dropped another 30 bux .......Burning 1331 floor support and right back through denominator closing @1308.00 Had you been lookin for resistance @ the30- 50's and waited for the break of the 30 floor support after the break above, playing it conservatively you still wound up with 3 grand a contract....in a day.....I found the price action to be very bearish and indiscriminate selling took place at every strike also creating a nice bearish engulfing on daily......I found it ironic that cramer and his bunch of cronies where pushiing gold all last week...Quote"Everyone should have a little gold in there portfolio" Nah not me I still think we have room to run up ...The market on avg peaks 6 months before an economic peak Im yet to see 3 in a row declining gdp/pmi numbers to make me feel like this is a top ...Plus there is to many sellers No euphoria yet alot of short covering rallies tho....
Heres the chart Note:Yellow Bearish Divergence...Blue Bearish englufing that held 1300.00...

 

[Fast50]

Awesome. I read all of it mostly.. Good shit. I see you prob. know what you doing. I somehow managed to not research fibs and ret. in my most recent stock obsession. I semi know how to draw em. Forgot how to read em. Thays another story. Where do you put most of your portfolio? You trade options heavy i assume? Good stuff on the gold bearish call. I like commodities too, but havent invested in any.

 

[Fast50]

Was it you i read that said it took a few yrs to become profitable or someone else here.? Forgot. How long you been trading?

 

[WHODAT@THADOR]

Was it you i read that said it took a few yrs to become profitable or someone else here.? Forgot. How long you been trading?

Here's my expose lol I am the fabled retail trader CNBC does not want you to kno exists ,,,I am my own Boss Make my own schedules and money everyday....I have been trading 2 1/2 -3yrs.....No I would never had said that...NEVER......You can become profitable the second you remove the variable part of the market...And that is yourself.....First.... thing you can do for yourself is throw everything away your currently thinking the market it is...It is worthless......I trade NO FUNDAMENTALS only TECHNICAL'S.....CNBC is the markets P.R......Fuck everything they tell you .... Never trade the news...Trade the chart thats it!!! Fuck the economic data it has no bearing on your trades...Today you have been born again......No more CnBC....OK???? Next, I'm Going to assume you understand chart patterns? Double-tops,Double-bottoms,triple bottoms,triple tops,Price spikes(Hammers and Hanging men)and Doji's. If you do not I can send you some links....So, 2nd the saying is "TAKE CARE OF YOUR LOSSES AND THE GAINS WILL TAKE CARE OF THEMSELVES" You need to decide what you are going to do with the money you have left and next time you put on a trade you need to have a true since of RISK/REWARD.....You need to already kno entry and exit....Try telling yourself I am willing to risk X dollars to make Y dollars And only take the trade with a 1:2 ratio or higher....Example BA drops to 112.00 dollars on daily chart...Its hard oversold (We will say @ 6 on RSI) ...Next, WE run a Fib retracement and it happens to come in @ .3142 retracement....Next, we get double bottom with a confirmation candlestick so we enter with a stop loss at the lows...This is our risk...So, now we wait a day right? Stock moves in our favor I move stop to Breakeven plus .10 to cover commision...And so on ....This is how I have defined my loss...See? So I am never down more then a fraction of a percent @ a time so BA moves 15 bux in favor right and I was willing to lose one buck in the beginning well thats 1:15 risk/reward ....If I took that profit it means I would have to lose 15 trades @ a dollar risk.....Were people mess up is they become the variable it goes against them "But its coming back" so they move stops or dont trade with em....These people have no consistency......Ugh, my hand hurts I will continue later lol

 

[WHODAT@THADOR]

Ok....I had to put some JIM on ice...lol......3rd Fibonacci Is not the end all be all....But it is a reliable set of Harmonic numbers(Fractals) broke into ratio's(.314, .382,.618,.786) to form points were market reversals and swing occur...That tie into R.n. Elliots work on wave theory ......So note to self look up Leonardo de pisa Fibonacci and Ralph Nelson Elliot....Cite:"Idiots guide to tech analysis" Over the past 40 years of back testing they have found that 75% of candlestick patterns fail right? So why use em right? Over the same period Harmonic pattern such as Cypher patter,Gartley's,Bat's, and Butterflies have shown a 80% accuracy in predicting trades....But you have to use Fibs in conjuction..So something that definately needs to be learned..Ok?So we want to read on H.M. Gartley,R.N. Elliot, and Fibonacci....
Now as for me and my experiences you remember Freddie Rick?Infomercial guy?Make millions with nothing trading options? Well, my mom was suckered in on it and when I had my daughter I didn't wanna travel and be gone month's at a time working...So...she gave me the cassettes and I was suckered in problem for them was that I could do math and had done enough research to really be a thorn in there side....They never traded using real money always fake...So, yes I am very fluent in options...Butterflies condors, spreads,....But you have to watch the greeks they are what gets most option traders...especially Gamma and Vega.....See options are not in your favor when bought but they are when they are sold because they expire ..You gotta be sure about what your buying because the extrinsic value(Time value) gets sucked out @ whatever the theta rate is. See you can use synthetics to take on whole positions at very little cost. If you learn fib you can project price and buy deep out the money options for pennies and when the stock moves in favor they will inflate and when they move through collect Intrinsic value(hard nonfluctuating value)..It all takes a little practice...Did you know you can make the market pay you to put on trades? Anyways Long story short I got hooked up with a group of good traders and what I had already learned fit right in like puzzle peices.....I now manage 3 accts ...I started with 1....I bought my dad a new chevelle go on a vacay every 6 mnths and pay my bills....So yes I would say its very possible and that first acct had 13k in it btw ! lot becomes 2.... 2 becomes 4.....you see? You can grow exponentially

 

[Fast50]

Yah. I understand what you're talking about mostly. Sounds good. Gave me some good stuff to further research. I didnt know the wave theory/fibs are in conjunction. Makes sense about being used in options. Or the backtesting chart patterns failing. Harmonic what? Cool. I will read up on what i can. Def on the fibs and harmonic stuff. And several other terms ive never heard. Gota get out of this funk sometime. And learn to fucking trade successfully. I was trying to be a technical trader. But looking back, i would break the rules and let fundamentals affect my decisions, or shortterm spikes. Just fuckin wreckless ass trading. Yah, shoot me your link for the chart patterns. Ive familiar with a few.

I got a old h.s friend that is a partner in a small hedge fund but havent traded live with em. Need to see wut up i reckon.

 

[WHODAT@THADOR]

Yah. I understand what you're talking about mostly. Sounds good. Gave me some good stuff to further research. I didnt know the wave theory/fibs are in conjunction. Makes sense about being used in options. Or the backtesting chart patterns failing. Harmonic what? Cool. I will read up on what i can. Def on the fibs and harmonic stuff. And several other terms ive never heard. Gota get out of this funk sometime. And learn to fucking trade successfully. I was trying to be a technical trader. But looking back, i would break the rules and let fundamentals affect my decisions, or shortterm spikes. Just fuckin wreckless ass trading. Yah, shoot me your link for the chart patterns. Ive familiar with a few.

I got a old h.s friend that is a partner in a small hedge fund but havent traded live with em. Need to see wut up i reckon.

I will