I use a 400 in a closet with just a box fan blowing across the bulb and it stays about 60 - 70 with the lights on. It just depends on where you put the light if its in a constricted, closed off space, the heat will have no way to escape, if its in an open area a 400 should cause you no heat issues.
I currently run a 400 without an air cooled hood. Used to have it in a closet but now in a 8x8x8 room. If you are using it in a closet you'll need to exhaust air somehow, and also have a fan blowing air between your canopy and the bulb.
If you have the money, an air cooled hood would really be a big help to a closet grow. I bought myself one for christmas. You will spend almost half the cost of one on the extra fans youll need without a hood anyways, plus you can get your plants right up to the bulb, so I beleive the increase in yeild would pay for it.
Im not too sure how much cooler a 250 or 150 would be. But i can tell you that I wish I had bought a higher wattage kit and a hood right from the start, seeing as there is very little price difference.