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Bush The Oil Man must have talked to all of his oil buddies at Exxon Mobil, Union Oil and BP and got them to agree to lower the oil prices. How about a round of applause for George Bush?
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Oil Falls 20% From July Record, Reaches Bear Market Threshold
By Margot Habiby
Aug. 6 (Bloomberg) --
Crude oil futures fell as low as $117.11 a barrel on speculation a slowing global economy will reduce demand, and after the dollar hit a seven-week high.
Today's 1.7 percent drop to the intraday low put prices more than 20 percent below the record $147.27 a barrel in New York on July 11; a drop of 20 percent is a threshold often seen as the start of a bear market.
Oil's decline follows a one-year doubling of prices as the dollar weakened, demand in Asia grew and Iran's nuclear program spurred concern that the country, the Middle-East's second- biggest oil producer, might face a military attack from Israel.
``We've been warning about the oil bubble bursting after reaching $150 because of investors pulling money out of the markets and the negative demand reaction,'' said Eugen Weinberg, an analyst at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt. ``At the moment we expect a corrective move to continue.''
Crude oil for September delivery fell 59 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $118.58 a barrel at 2:43 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the lowest close since May 2.
Futures fell after a U.S. government report showed an unexpected increase in inventories and an extended decline in fuel demand.
Crude supplies rose 1.61 million barrels to 296.9 million barrels in the week ended Aug. 1, the Energy Department said today in its weekly report. Inventories were forecast to fall 200,000 barrels, according to the median of analyst estimates in a Bloomberg News survey.
Fundamental Shift
``The market focus is shifting back toward the direct oil fundamentals, such as how's demand, where's supply and where are inventories, and away from some of the wider issues like what's the Federal Reserve Board doing with interest rates,'' said Tim Evans, an energy analyst with Citi Futures Perspective in New York.
Brent crude for September settlement fell 70 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $117 a barrel on London's ICE Futures Europe exchange. Earlier, it touched $115.60 a barrel, 22 percent below its own record high of $147.50.
``The bubble has burst,'' said James Cordier, portfolio manager at OptionSellers.com in Tampa, Florida. ``As the dollar continues to stabilize, the excuse for buying commodities is ended. The dollar has been strengthening, and that is one big catalyst that is gone.''
Credit Restrictions
The dollar had weakened for almost three years, trading at a record low $1.6038 per euro on July 15, drawing investors to energy as a new asset class. Credit restrictions affecting the housing and banking industries are now causing many of these investors to cash out.
The dollar today touched $1.5398 per euro, its strongest against the European currency since June 16.
Commodities, as measured by the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 raw materials, dropped for a fifth session and touched the lowest in almost four months. The index declined 10 percent in July, the biggest monthly slide in 28 years, and is down 16 percent from a record 473.97 on July 3.
The CRB fell 1.17, or 0.3 percent, to 397.24 at 4:03 p.m. in New York, down 16 percent from a record 473.97 on July 3.
Crude last fell 20 percent from a peak in January 2007, when prices declined as low as $49.90. Prices later rebounded and ended that year 57 percent higher.
Meaningful Benchmark
``I'm not sure 20 percent is a meaningful benchmark, because the rise has been so steep and so quick,'' said Antoine Halff, head of energy research at Newedge USA LLC in New York. ``We're not falling from established levels, but from a brief spike. This is not the same as falling from a plateau where we've been for months.''
Oil has lost more than $28 a barrel since reaching the record less than a month ago as unprecedented fuel costs prompted U.S. consumers to limit spending.
``I would hesitate to say this is the peak for this bull run,'' said Edward Morse, chief energy economist at Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. ``It's a long-anticipated market correction. It's not clear how much prices overshot where fundamentals would have warranted them to be.''
U.S. fuel demand averaged 20.1 million barrels a day during the four weeks ended Aug. 1, down 2.6 percent from a year earlier, according to Energy Department data released today.
``It feels like there could be more downside, but we don't think there is more than $18 a barrel downside,'' David Pursell, an analyst at Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. in Houston, said. ``If you go below $100, OPEC is going to start jawboning and may cut production.''
Gasoline Falls
Gasoline for September delivery lost 0.71 cent to $2.9493 a gallon. Futures fell 13 percent last month, the biggest drop since September 2006, as a slowing economy cut demand for the motor fuel.
Regular gasoline at the pump, averaged nationwide, fell 0.9 cent to $3.862 a gallon, AAA, the nation's largest motorist organization, said today on its Web site. Pump prices reached a record $4.114 a gallon on July 17, as higher prices curbed demand.
``To me, this has been a bear market for months,'' Citi's Evans said.
``The price action didn't reflect it, but the amount of damage that high prices were doing to demand and the general uptrend to OPEC oil production were, in my view, clearly bearish.''
Vi
Oil Falls 20% From July Record, Reaches Bear Market Threshold
By Margot Habiby
Aug. 6 (Bloomberg) --
Crude oil futures fell as low as $117.11 a barrel on speculation a slowing global economy will reduce demand, and after the dollar hit a seven-week high.
Today's 1.7 percent drop to the intraday low put prices more than 20 percent below the record $147.27 a barrel in New York on July 11; a drop of 20 percent is a threshold often seen as the start of a bear market.
Oil's decline follows a one-year doubling of prices as the dollar weakened, demand in Asia grew and Iran's nuclear program spurred concern that the country, the Middle-East's second- biggest oil producer, might face a military attack from Israel.
``We've been warning about the oil bubble bursting after reaching $150 because of investors pulling money out of the markets and the negative demand reaction,'' said Eugen Weinberg, an analyst at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt. ``At the moment we expect a corrective move to continue.''
Crude oil for September delivery fell 59 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $118.58 a barrel at 2:43 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the lowest close since May 2.
Futures fell after a U.S. government report showed an unexpected increase in inventories and an extended decline in fuel demand.
Crude supplies rose 1.61 million barrels to 296.9 million barrels in the week ended Aug. 1, the Energy Department said today in its weekly report. Inventories were forecast to fall 200,000 barrels, according to the median of analyst estimates in a Bloomberg News survey.
Fundamental Shift
``The market focus is shifting back toward the direct oil fundamentals, such as how's demand, where's supply and where are inventories, and away from some of the wider issues like what's the Federal Reserve Board doing with interest rates,'' said Tim Evans, an energy analyst with Citi Futures Perspective in New York.
Brent crude for September settlement fell 70 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $117 a barrel on London's ICE Futures Europe exchange. Earlier, it touched $115.60 a barrel, 22 percent below its own record high of $147.50.
``The bubble has burst,'' said James Cordier, portfolio manager at OptionSellers.com in Tampa, Florida. ``As the dollar continues to stabilize, the excuse for buying commodities is ended. The dollar has been strengthening, and that is one big catalyst that is gone.''
Credit Restrictions
The dollar had weakened for almost three years, trading at a record low $1.6038 per euro on July 15, drawing investors to energy as a new asset class. Credit restrictions affecting the housing and banking industries are now causing many of these investors to cash out.
The dollar today touched $1.5398 per euro, its strongest against the European currency since June 16.
Commodities, as measured by the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 raw materials, dropped for a fifth session and touched the lowest in almost four months. The index declined 10 percent in July, the biggest monthly slide in 28 years, and is down 16 percent from a record 473.97 on July 3.
The CRB fell 1.17, or 0.3 percent, to 397.24 at 4:03 p.m. in New York, down 16 percent from a record 473.97 on July 3.
Crude last fell 20 percent from a peak in January 2007, when prices declined as low as $49.90. Prices later rebounded and ended that year 57 percent higher.
Meaningful Benchmark
``I'm not sure 20 percent is a meaningful benchmark, because the rise has been so steep and so quick,'' said Antoine Halff, head of energy research at Newedge USA LLC in New York. ``We're not falling from established levels, but from a brief spike. This is not the same as falling from a plateau where we've been for months.''
Oil has lost more than $28 a barrel since reaching the record less than a month ago as unprecedented fuel costs prompted U.S. consumers to limit spending.
``I would hesitate to say this is the peak for this bull run,'' said Edward Morse, chief energy economist at Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. ``It's a long-anticipated market correction. It's not clear how much prices overshot where fundamentals would have warranted them to be.''
U.S. fuel demand averaged 20.1 million barrels a day during the four weeks ended Aug. 1, down 2.6 percent from a year earlier, according to Energy Department data released today.
``It feels like there could be more downside, but we don't think there is more than $18 a barrel downside,'' David Pursell, an analyst at Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. in Houston, said. ``If you go below $100, OPEC is going to start jawboning and may cut production.''
Gasoline Falls
Gasoline for September delivery lost 0.71 cent to $2.9493 a gallon. Futures fell 13 percent last month, the biggest drop since September 2006, as a slowing economy cut demand for the motor fuel.
Regular gasoline at the pump, averaged nationwide, fell 0.9 cent to $3.862 a gallon, AAA, the nation's largest motorist organization, said today on its Web site. Pump prices reached a record $4.114 a gallon on July 17, as higher prices curbed demand.
``To me, this has been a bear market for months,'' Citi's Evans said.
``The price action didn't reflect it, but the amount of damage that high prices were doing to demand and the general uptrend to OPEC oil production were, in my view, clearly bearish.''
