So I was taking a shower and I was thinking about electric cars and what level it would have to get to for me to buy one. It would have to be close to the same cost as a regular comparable car. Performance isn't that big of a deal to me, but Id like to be able to go 70 mph, pull out into traffic and not get ran over, and be able to accelerate faster than if I got out and pushed it myself.
Then it occurred to me that there is bound to be a lot of chemicals/metals used in building batteries for electric cars and the motors that we don't use in regular cars. So my question ended up being - what about peak lithium or any other metal ect?
Assuming that half of our 250 million vehicles were changed over to electric, that is 125 million vehicles in the country that would be produced.
Upon reading the figures from different reports the answer is no one is sure what the hell is going on since China controls most of the worlds litium supply. Trading the Middle East for China doesn't seem very reasonable. I gave up on all that since I don't want to spend the next 20 hours reading about it.
A few things that strike me as being key in deciding the course of technologies.
Gas vehicles can be made smaller and lighter without changes in technology and reach hyrbid mpg standards. This is a great short term (20 year?) strategy to decrease or at least keep flat oil usage in the short term.
Hybrid vehicles use oil the same as regular cars, just at a reduced rate. Then add to it the extra manufacturing, cost, and environmental damage caused by the mining and use of metals/chemicals that gas cars wouldn't use and at best its a tie over the entire life of the vehicle. Hybrid vehicles are still necessary as a platform to learn more about technology if nothing else. Purchasing a hybrid helps to fund technology of the next generation. Hybrid vehicles will probably never really make sense in the world. It is entirely possible you would help the environment more by buying a 15k gas car and donating 15k to science.
Battery operated vehicles would have to run off of fossil fuel being burned at centralized locations. While this is slightly better than oil, it would require a huge infrastructure change to permit the actual use of them. How long would it take to make these changes? The cars are at least 10-20 years off, Infrastructure is probably further than that. It would require a massive building project to build power plants of all kinds. I think by the time we were completely changed over that we would have some sort of usable solar paint that might be able to be used on the electric cars so they charge themselves. They already have this paint, they are trying to make it more efficient and bring down the cost to manufacture it. A car that utilized this to charge itself would be awesome and as close to being truly green as it gets.
Oil is our only real option right now. If the government wants to increase the number of efficient cars on the market it needs to do one thing - CREATE A DEMAND. Creating a supply doesn't do anything if no one wants it. If the government wants to throw taxpayers money at the problem the best thing to do is to give incentives for all vehicles that get better than 30 mpg. That will create a big demand for those cars and car companies will make them. The government should not be doing this, but it makes more sense than forcing companies to build certain cars with the stick. Carrots are definitely a better incentive.
Alternatively, wait another 10 years and the price of oil will force this same thing to happen. Well, off to the market! Adios.