Impossible! The deficit is falling as well as unemployment Obama wrecking economy

[twostrokenut]

Not to stir up the same old ****, but it was my experience that prices (for all but houses) rose waaay faster in that span than the nominal inflation rate suggested. cn

Like more than 5% even?

 

[cannabineer]

If you give me an example (or even ten) we can look at the underlying data.

In my experience, experience is misleading. When you go to the grocery store every week, you easily notice price changes when you're paying more; you're not so apt to notice other changes that are less visible, or to acknowledge when you're paying less. For example, if you buy one loaf of bread a week for $2 and the price doubles to $4, you're paying $2 more each week and $104 more each year; you notice that easily by looking at your receipt each week, especially if many items increased in price.

If you buy one airline ticket a year and the price fell from $400 to $320 from year to year, do you think "Awesome, that $80 I saved on the ticket cancelled out $80 worth of my bread price increase"? Likewise, if the average consumer buys 5 CDs a year and the price fell from $20 per CD to $10 CD, do you think about the fact that you're saving $50 on CDs over what you paid in the past? Our memories are quite selective, which is why the CPI measures prices of thousands of things in aggregate based on reams of data. The data yields truth that the greedy human mind tends to conveniently forget.

I could be seeing confirmation bias; yes. But when my groceries bill goes up 50% for the same set and amount of things in a few years, I can't help but feel that inflation is real in my life. And DON'T get me started on healthcare items/procedures ... cn

 

[ClaytonBigsby]

I just got here and did not read the first 40 pages.......

Did anyone yell about the conditioning of the sheople to paying exhorbatant amounts for gas? Ten years ago it was $1.17 a gallon. Haven't they made enough money yet?

 

[Mr Neutron]

Who got the $16 trillion? The banks that borrowed it and paid it back got the $16 trillion.

Oh, the "banks"... oh, well that answers everything. All banks or just banks in the US? Any foreign banks? Which banks? Who got what?

Since PCE and CPI both consider fuel and food, it should be a lot of good to you if that's what you're concerned about.

Too bad the Fed doesn't use them, then.

It's not statistical magic. That prices, on average, have increased by something like 2,300% over the last 100 years is cancelled out by the fact that wages, on average, have increased by 5,200%.Your equivalence argument is an empty one. We know what the average wage was in 1913 and we know it was today; likewise, we know what prices were in 1913 and we know what they are today. When you have both pieces of information, you can easily make comparisons.

Well, goddamn!!! I never looked at it that way. We're all rich, then. Shit, I'm going out and buy me a new Cadillac.
Obviously, some disagree with your numbers:

 

[tokeprep]

I could be seeing confirmation bias; yes. But when my groceries bill goes up 50% for the same set and amount of things in a few years, I can't help but feel that inflation is real in my life. And DON'T get me started on healthcare items/procedures ... cn

When are you measuring from?

Healthcare is certainly included in inflation calculations, but I don't think its cost reflects inflation--just the scummy, anti-competitive insurance regime that discourages competition and the fixing of the supply of doctors. But it's an aggregate thing nonetheless, as it all must be: a young, healthy person who visits the doctor once a year experiences little healthcare inflation, while an 85-year-old at the end of life might experience it substantially. What the consumer spends on healthcare isn't either of these amounts, it's somewhere between them. That's the truth in every category. If you have six children and food prices go up 25%, your inflation rate is going to be much higher than that experienced by a single person.

 

[Mr Neutron]

I just got here and did not read the first 40 pages.......

Did anyone yell about the conditioning of the sheople to paying exhorbatant amounts for gas? Ten years ago it was $1.17 a gallon. Haven't they made enough money yet?

According to tokerep, it doesn't matter because you are making a lot more money.

 

[Mr Neutron]

I could be seeing confirmation bias; yes. But when my groceries bill goes up 50% for the same set and amount of things in a few years, I can't help but feel that inflation is real in my life. And DON'T get me started on healthcare items/procedures ... cn

Especially for those on a fixed income.

 

[NoDrama]

Especially for those on a fixed income.

But all you have to do is invest in an index fund and you will be super rich in no time, because markets never go down, always up.

Last week Tokerep suggested you could invest in stocks, bonds, CD's etc etc etc to beat inflation.

This week only index funds will do.

With all the contradictions I doubt tokerep actually even has any money.

He filled out 20 pages of form 1098, too bad I laid that trap a while back for him to trip and fall into.

You don't use a form 1098 to list your capital gains on equities, you use a schedule D and a form 8949. Anyone who really invests their money and doesn't just TALK about it would know that.

Even If he filled out 20 pages of form 8949, then he is selling 340 stocks each year.

Its not that hard to find out when someone is making shit up as they go along.

 

[abandonconflict]

http://www.livescience.com/576-democrats-republicans-adept-ignoring-facts-study-finds.html

Democrats and Republicans Both Adept at Ignoring Facts, Study Finds

Democrats and Republicans alike are adept at making decisions without letting the facts get in the way, a new study shows. The test subjects on both sides of the political aisle reached totally biased conclusions by ignoring information that could not rationally be discounted, Westen and his colleagues say.Then, with their minds made up, brain activity ceased in the areas that deal with negative emotions such as disgust. But activity spiked in the circuits involved in reward, a response similar to what addicts experience when they get a fix, Westen explained.

The study points to a total lack of reason in political decision-making.

 

[tokeprep]

Oh, the "banks"... oh, well that answers everything. All banks or just banks in the US? Any foreign banks? Which banks? Who got what?

Did you just read the article you linked to or did you look at the GAO report? Page 145 of the PDF: http://www.sanders.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/GAO Fed Investigation.pdf.

Too bad the Fed doesn't use them, then.

That isn't what their web site says, and my media article said the opposite of yours. So I guess we're just going with your word on that...

Well, goddamn!!! I never looked at it that way. We're all rich, then. Shit, I'm going out and buy me a new Cadillac.
Obviously, some disagree with your numbers:

I presume you're trying to contradict my claim that wages increased by 5,200% with this chart showing that they grew from $15,000 to $50,000, which is obviously not a 5,200% increase. But that $15,000 is derived using the magic math you just attacked--it's the 2006 equivalent of about $750 in 1913. Obviously 25 cents an hour in 1913 doesn't equal $15,000--it's less than $1,000.

25 cents an hour in 1913 versus $13 an hour in 2013 equals 52 times as much, or 5,200%. Obviously not all of this is a real increase, but I already noted that--I said prices rose 2,300% at the same time.

Funnily enough, this chart is providing you with exactly the same numbers you're trying to argue against.

 

[NoDrama]

The average person does not make $50,000 a year. Anyone who claims such is trying to deceive you.

 

[twostrokenut]

This reminds me of a gsxr1000 I had. Kids wanted to race that bike a ton. Every kid in a civic all of a sudden had a 10 second car because they used the horsepower inflation calculator at pep boys that didn't advertise it was for the 1/8 mile. They were ignorant of the fact that the 1/4 mile is the gold standard.

 

[tokeprep]

According to tokerep, it doesn't matter because you are making a lot more money.

First of all, is it the result of inflation or geopolitical realities and the production agenda of an unregulated cartel? The price of wheat depends on the market levels of supply and demand for wheat; OPEC send the price of oil up 20% by announcing it's cutting daily production.

But second, it only matters in aggregate. If the price of other things fall, increases in gasoline prices have no real effect on aggregate purchasing power.

 

[NoDrama]

But second, it only matters in aggregate. If the price of other things fall, increases in gasoline prices have no real effect on aggregate purchasing power.

Right, because if food inflation increases 500% and the price of private jets decreases by 10%, there really is no net increase in inflation.

If gas increases by 200% in a decade, but the price of 3 carat diamonds falls by 5%, there was no inflation in gasoline prices.


Now you got it all figured out.

 

[tokeprep]

But all you have to do is invest in an index fund and you will be super rich in no time, because markets never go down, always up.

Last week Tokerep suggested you could invest in stocks, bonds, CD's etc etc etc to beat inflation.

This week only index funds will do.

Once again, you're misconstruing what I said. The average annual return on stocks over 10 years has handily beaten the inflation rate; same for bonds; same for the CD, even. I have already said repeatedly that the CD, no longer beating the inflation rate, is not a good investment.

If you're talking about investing savings, which is obviously what we mean, year-to-year returns are irrelevant. Seriously, where did you get that finance degree? The fact that the market was down huge in 2008 means nothing to the value of my stock portfolio now.

With all the contradictions I doubt tokerep actually even has any money.

He filled out 20 pages of form 1098, too bad I laid that trap a while back for him to trip and fall into.

You don't use a form 1098 to list your capital gains on equities, you use a schedule D and a form 8949. Anyone who really invests their money and doesn't just TALK about it would know that.

Even If he filled out 20 pages of form 8949, then he is selling 340 stocks each year.

Its not that hard to find out when someone is making shit up as they go along.

I said nothing about a specific form number, I said: "My capital gain/loss section must have been 20 pages long." You think I looked to see what form my capital gains and losses were on several years ago? I never did more than scan that part of my return when I printed out a copy--I used Turbotax or Taxact and paid $15 to have a program compute the capital gains/losses for me, since there were so many transactions.

Your assertion that someone who's "really invested" should know what IRS form their capital gains and losses were reported on is ridiculous.

 

[tokeprep]

The average person does not make $50,000 a year. Anyone who claims such is trying to deceive you.

The median household makes $50,000 a year, not an average person.

You have a valid point about an individual comprising the household in 1913 versus two earners comprising the household in 2013 (although you're overstating the effect by ignoring women and children in the labor force in 1913 while at the same time assuming that all households have two full time workers today), but even if you compare individual earning power, the 2013 individual has more purchasing power than the 1913 individual.

 

[NoDrama]

Once again, you're misconstruing what I said. The average annual return on stocks over 10 years has handily beaten the inflation rate; same for bonds; same for the CD, even. I have already said repeatedly that the CD, no longer beating the inflation rate, is not a good investment.

If you're talking about investing savings, which is obviously what we mean, year-to-year returns are irrelevant. Seriously, where did you get that finance degree? The fact that the market was down huge in 2008 means nothing to the value of my stock portfolio now.



I said nothing about a specific form number, I said: "My capital gain/loss section must have been 20 pages long." You think I looked to see what form my capital gains and losses were on several years ago? I never did more than scan that part of my return when I printed out a copy--I used Turbotax or Taxact and paid $15 to have a program compute the capital gains/losses for me, since there were so many transactions.

Your assertion that someone who's "really invested" should know what IRS form their capital gains and losses were reported on is ridiculous.

Lets say you purchase some index funds for $50,000.

a year later the value of your index fund is $30,000. The market looks bleak.

What would YOU do?

 

[NoDrama]

The median household makes $50,000 a year, not an average person.

You have a valid point about an individual comprising the household in 1913 versus two earners comprising the household in 2013 (although you're overstating the effect by ignoring women and children in the labor force in 1913 while at the same time assuming that all households have two full time workers today), but even if you compare individual earning power, the 2013 individual has more purchasing power than the 1913 individual.

A grand total of 12% of the workforce was comprised of women or children in 1913. Not exactly a big number.

70% of households are 2 or more earner in today's world.

70% of 320 Million is a shit ton more than 12% of 98 Million.

Overstating the effect?

 

[tokeprep]

Right, because if food inflation increases 500% and the price of private jets decreases by 10%, there really is no net increase in inflation.

If gas increases by 200% in a decade, but the price of 3 carat diamonds falls by 5%, there was no inflation in gasoline prices.


Now you got it all figured out.

Aren't you hilarious!

Not all food increased in price--some stayed the same and some decreased, but people really only see the increases; airfare decreased in price; housing decreased in price; music decreased in price; cars decreased in price; TVs decreased in price; all kinds of other consumer goods decreased in price.

If food and energy are 30% of the average budget and everything else is 70%, you don't need to measure private jet travel or diamonds to understand why the overall rate of inflation is lower than the rate of inflation in specific categories.

 

[tokeprep]

Lets say you purchase some index funds for $50,000.

a year later the value of your index fund is $30,000. The market looks bleak.

What would YOU do?

Let's say you purchase silver for $40 an ounce and it drops to $20 an ounce. The market looks bleak. What would you do?