My Best Guess on Outcomes of Marijuana Initiatives

TheMan13

Well-Known Member
My Best Guess on Outcomes of Marijuana Initiatives

BY KEITH STROUP ON NOVEMBER 3, 2014ACTIVISM, EDITORIAL, LEGALIZATION, MARIJUANA LAWS, NORML, OPINION, UNCATEGORIZED

This column is being written a couple of days prior to the November 4th election, and will be published on Monday, Nov. 3, election eve. So it only seems appropriate to offer my prognosis on the four statewide marijuana-related voter initiatives, as well as a number of municipal voter initiatives in Michigan and Maine.

Our Opponents Claim the Sky Is Falling

Before setting out on this dangerous endeavor of projecting election results, I should acknowledge the emergence of a seemingly re-energized gang of drug warriors, still willing to exploit fear and misinformation to justify the continued criminal prohibition of marijuana, and to protect their jobs. Our opponents were clearly caught somewhat off-guard by the legalization victories in 2012 in Colorado and Washington, despite their opposition. These smug law-enforcement and drug counseling industry reps had grown accustomed to their ability to shape the public debate over marijuana policy, and to paint anyone who favored the option of legalizing and regulating marijuana as being out of the political mainstream.

But their sleight-of-hand had finally been detected by a majority of Americans, who concluded that marijuana prohibition is a failed and destructive public policy, causing far more harm than the use of marijuana itself. Fear mongering can sometimes work when the audience is ill-informed; but falls flat when people are well-informed.

Over the last several months, we have seen Kevin Sabet with Project Sam, the principal remaining anti-marijuana zealots supporting prohibition, making outrageous claims about the experience with legalization in these first two states, claiming all sorts of unintended consequences. One vocal opponent of the Florida initiative recently referred to the overwhelmingly favorable experience in Colorado as the “Colorado calamity.” The Brookings Institution, in fact, did a comprehensive report on the first six-months of legalization in CO, and found the roll-out of the new law had been overwhelmingly successful. But no one needs to worry Sabet and his ilk with the facts.

One of our opponents in Oregon recently claimed at a public debate that five children in Colorado had died from overdosing on edibles, only to be embarrassed into apologizing and retracting the statement when confronted with demands for the evidence (which, of course, did not exist, since it is impossible to die from an overdose of marijuana, either edible or smoked). While the number of these ideologues making new claims of “reefer madness” is small, they continue to get national media attention with their allegations, and to confuse and dumb-down the public debate.

Florida Amendment 2

The majority of the polling in Florida appears to show that our level of public support for Amendment 2, the medical use initiative, has declined significantly from earlier levels, and the outcome remains in doubt. A number of polls suggest support for the measure is above 50 percent, but insufficient to reach the 60 percent level required for a constitutional amendment. Yet the most recent poll, paid for by United for Care, the official sponsors of the initiative, found 62% support among likely voters, giving cause for some optimism. Should the proposal win more than 50 percent but fail to be approved, the strategy of opting for a constitutional amendment will likely be second-guessed for a long time in Florida (and elsewhere).

Oregon Measure 91

The Oregon legalization proposal, Measure 91, appears headed for victory, although the outcome is expected to be close. The latest polling found 52 percent support and 41% percent opposed. I would guess we might win this initiative with 55 percent approval. If approved, Measure 91 will likely be a model for others states to consider in the next round of elections in 2016.

Alaska Measure 2

The Alaska legalization proposal, Measure 2, appears to have lost the support of a significant number of young voters, and will likely be rejected by a slight majority of the voters; perhaps 52 percent opposed and 48 percent in support. I still hold out hope that those younger voters are still with us, and that they may have been largely missed in the polling in such a vast and low-populated state; but that is probably wishful thinking. The law enforcement establishment appears to have successfully circled the wagons to protect the status quo in Alaska.

Fortunately, Alaskans are already legally permitted to posses up to four ounces of marijuana in their homes, so their law, even if the full legalization initiative is defeated, will still be better than the law in all but two or three states.

DC Initiative 71

The legalization proposal in DC , Initiative 71, appears headed for an overwhelming victory, likely to gain the support of nearly 60 percent of the voters. I will be disappointed if our support is less than 58 percent. Because of the complexities and limitation of the District’s Home Rule charter, it is far from certain when these new proposals will take effect, but the mere act of approving legalization for the nation’s capital will make it far more difficult for Congress to continue to ignore marijuana legalization, as well as stopping the arrests of marijuana smokers in the District, where African Americans were eight times more likely to be arrested than their white counterparts.

Guam

Citizens residing in the US territory Guam will decide on Proposal 14A, the Compassionate Cannabis Use Act. If approved by voters, the measure would “direct the Department of Public Health and Social Services to regulate the use of marijuana as treatment for medical conditions.” The Department would have up to nine months following the law’s passage to provide rules for the territory’s medical marijuana program.

Municipal Initiatives.

Michigan

Municipal initiatives in 11 communities in Michigan (Berkley, Clare, Frankfort, Harrison, Huntington Woods, Lapeer, Mt. Pleasant, Onaway, Port Huron, Pleasant Ridge and Saginaw) will be asked if they support making minor marijuana arrests the lowest law-enforcement priority, effectively decriminalizing marijuana in those towns. Over the last three years, Hazel Park, Oak Park, Lansing, Jackson, Ferndale, Detroit, Grand Rapids, Ypsilanti, Flint and Kalamazoo have all previously passed similar marijuana initiatives.

To date, proponents of these municipal initiatives in Michigan, the Safer Michigan Coalition, have established a perfect record; not one Michigan community has rejected similar proposals. And I would anticipate they will continue that perfect record with a string of municipal victories on November 4th.

Maine

Two cities in Maine (Lewiston and South Portland) will have municipal initiatives on the ballot to fully decriminalize up to one ounce of marijuana, similar to one approved by 67 percent of voters in Portland in 2013. Based on the earlier election, one would expect both of these initiatives will also be approved by the voters.

New Mexico

Voters in two counties, Bernalillo and Santa Fe – will decide on non-binding countywide ballot measures asking citizens whether to reduce minor marijuana possession offenses from a criminal misdemeanor to a fine-only, civil offense.

Massachusetts

Voters in eight select districts in the state will decide on non-binding public policy questions asking, “Shall the State Representative from this district be instructed to vote in favor of legislation that would allow the state to regulate and tax marijuana in the same manner as alcohol?”

Now it is time for the voters to speak. If you live in one of these jurisdictions, please exercise your most basic right in a democracy by voting to end marijuana prohibition. If you fail to vote, then you can’t complain if you don’t like the results. Please do not miss this opportunity to help shape the marijuana laws in your jurisdiction.

http://marijuana.com/news/2014/11/my-best-guess-on-outcomes-of-marijuana-initiatives/
 

Skylor

Well-Known Member
Florida is my biggie, if that passes, ha ha ha....expect those right wing courts down there might still bring the movement to a halt..I won't cheer loudly until legal weed sales really happen down there.
 

hyroot

Well-Known Member
polls are subjective. they only poll people who have already voted. Not new voters. They cold call land lines. Not cell phones. Most people don't have a land line anymore. Voter turn out is always more than predicted. The mj initiatives seen to bring out more young voters than normal. several cities in California are voting mj taxes as well. Not legalization yet.
 
But their sleight-of-hand had finally been detected by a majority of Americans, who concluded that marijuana prohibition is a failed and destructive public policy, causing far more harm than the use of marijuana itself. Fear mongering can sometimes work when the audience is ill-informed; but falls flat when people are well-informed.
There is a struggle, from one paradigm to another. As the people become more knowledgeable, the forces that be, can no longer manipulate the public for their own financial gain. The power struggle begins.

Political parties have become dependent on the war on drugs. In the form of fines, citations, Seizures of equity and property, that they go on to auction off for a financial gain.

And it really comes down to the local municipal authorities. They depend on small drug bust to finance there departments.

We all know what happens when you loan something to somebody. They become dependent upon it, fully aware that it isn't theirs but it doesn't stop them from building a foundation on something that's inherently unstable.

"Change is hard for those who build there principles upon a lie"
~Smoken-n-Token

That's a paradigm...

"Stay aware - and beware"
 
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GregS

Well-Known Member
A man on the teevee has said,
to face marijuana with dread.
His words are hereafter,
derided with laughter,
and we keep on feeding our heads.
 

Skylor

Well-Known Member
polls are subjective. they only poll people who have already voted. Not new voters. They cold call land lines. Not cell phones. Most people don't have a land line anymore. Voter turn out is always more than predicted. The mj initiatives seen to bring out more young voters than normal. several cities in California are voting mj taxes as well. Not legalization yet.
Remember 2 years ago, that close president race was in fact not close at all, the polls were flat wrong.
 

TheMan13

Well-Known Member
"Oregon and Alaska just became the third and fourth states to legalize the drug. Washington, D.C., voted for legalization, as did the city of South Portland, Maine. The island territory of Guam chose to allow medicinal marijuana. And while Florida voters defeated a constitutional amendment legalizing medicinal weed, it required 60 percent support to pass and received roughly 58 percent of the vote. A healthy majority in the state want medical cannabis to be legal."

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2014/11/the-biggest-election-2014-winner-marijuana/382393/
 

TheMan13

Well-Known Member
Oakland Michigan Marijuana Charter Amendments:

Berkley
Yes 3,811 62%
No 2,311 38%

Huntington Woods
Yes 2,295 70%
No 993 30%

Pleasant Ridge
Yes 1,011 70%
No 430 30%
 
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Skylor

Well-Known Member
^ In Clare, Frankford, Harrison, Lapeer and Onaway, voters rejected marijuana decriminalization.
tell you alot about those people and their courts.I might still pass through those cities but no way would I get a hotel room and stick around there for the night....I feel safer in Flint, ha ha
 

Skylor

Well-Known Member
Investing in MM might be the biggest thing right now but its so hard to guess what will happen with it. I would feel safer buying a bar that sells booze yet who knows what the future will bring. One things for sure, there will not be fields of weed growing down in FL anytime soon, yet the bud might well be awesome.

If one has a ton of money to invest, buying a detox centre might be the big ticket to riches right now. I was reading the comments from Anchorage Alaska on legal weed being approved, somebody said weed is for "old people" the young people are in to harder drugs, they might be right about that.
 

NEEDMMASAP

Well-Known Member
Florida is my biggie, if that passes, ha ha ha....expect those right wing courts down there might still bring the movement to a halt..I won't cheer loudly until legal weed sales really happen down there.
Skylor what has been said about Florida is right on target , I had the opportunity to spend some time up there in MI this summer , camped in my camper at a RIU site members homestead , stayed part of July and Aug there , it was the best 5 weeks of my entire year . I want to tell you MI growers how much I admire you guys , yes the ones that have been growing before it was even legal to do so , you are the true Americans . I think the reason it didn’t pass here in Florida is because most of our population are old like me and we have been brainwashed for 70 years , we were taught to believe their lies . I woke up to the truth a couple of years ago thanks to a RIU site member . I wish there was a better way to say FUCK the DEA and FUCK the LEO
 

Skylor

Well-Known Member
That and many old people resent seeing young people enjoying life. It even happen to me last July in Flint at that high times event. I was happy it was happening and was kicking back having a great time but then I also was bitter see people half my age--looking like they were in fine shape--also lighting up. For so long I always had to hide behind some trees and sneak a few tokes in and now they could just spark a bowl up and buy a beer to go with it and openly smoke and drink in public.

I did not hate seeing them, I was just bitter I too could not enjoy life like that when I was younger. Well I did but not too often, the 80's were pretty cool but then came the 90's and all the parks that used to be cool to party at were either closed off or empty of people partying.

In some ways, its the 1980's all over again...expect Detroit cops no longer sell cocaine/crack from their squad cars, LOL

I should be happy that I am not very old, in fact I'm just middle age 50's but still I'm old compared 22 year olds.

Florida ended up getting 58% of the vote, they are saying they will try again come 2016, maybe it will pass then with the higher voter turn out for president elections but then they gotta set everything up...ah, it be least 4--5 years before legal weed sales to anyone happens down there. I'm giving up thinking about visiting FL, it could have been so nice,

Yep, come years from now, I might be a bitter old man laying on the beach smoking a joint and watching the 20 somethings also openly puffing....they might look at me wonder why I look so sad, LOL.

EDIT..oh I forgot that FL just turn down MM, not legal weed sales to all adults...nope, I'm not going to live long enough to see legal weed sales to all adults down in FL, they can't even pass MM right now, they got a long ways to go.
 
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TheMan13

Well-Known Member
Florida screwed up being over confident and aiming for a constitutional amendment that required a 60% majority during a midterm election. It also fundamentally separated them from the other three national initiatives like a wounded animal attracting national opposition ($) like no other. When dealing with lawyers, if you can get past the exorbitant cost, you must deal with the fact your salesmen are often more confident than correct as they have/will never be held accountable ...

http://www.unitedforcare.org/
 
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