I am firmly convinced that once we can get Gay Marriage settled, marijuana policy will be the next big rights issue.
As issues, the two really aren't connected one to the other.
For example, Colorado legalized recreational cannabis BEFORE gay marriage. Alaska has had legal/decriminalized cannabis for years off-and-on, but its banned same-sex marriage and probably isn't going to change the latter soon.
I do agree there are two similarities between the two issues. First of all, its typically social conservatives that oppose both legal cannabis and State recognition of same-sex marriage. So its *mostly* (but not entirely) true that jurisdictions that oppose one oppose the other, and vice versa.
The other similarity is that both issues are overwhemingly supported by younger demographics, which means that popularity of both things is increasing over time as young persons become older and increase their frequency of voting. So the same forces that are pushing for State recognition of gay marriage are also pushing for cannabis legal liberalization too, and in both cases, time is on the side of the legalizers.
As it stands, Obama may need to lift or reclassify the federal designation to deal with the state laws.
Don't see this at all.
First of all, Obama doesn't make the law, he just enforces it (or chooses not to). Congress banned cannabis, not the President. If you want to legalize cannabis at a FEDERAL level, you need Congress to change the Federal law, not the President. Bluntly, there is no way that's going to happen in the near term future. With only a few states even permitting this at the State level, you can't realistically expect this issue to make headway at a Federal level. While its possible that cannabis could get re-scheduled off of DEA schedule I sooner, major federal cannabis criminal legal reform is probably at LEAST ten years off.
Next, Federal law trumps State law. The State of Texas may permit you to own hand grenades, Federal law does not. There is no real conflict there. . .if Federal law enforcement catches you with a hand grenade, you're subject to FEDERAL criminal liability. The fact that CO lets you smoke or grow weed legally doesn't make it legal under Federal law; if the Feds catch you they can still bust you, if they choose to.
So I really don't see why Obama "has" to do anything here. If he likes he can choose to selectively not enforce certain aspects of Federal drug law for political reasons (as he did the first part of his first term), but he can also decide (out of political expediency) that he's going to reverse his policy and start to crack down on the most egregious offenders (as he did the second part of his first term). There is also no reason he can't reverse course again to make an example of State-level drug sellers and throw medical growers in jail on Federal cultivation or possession charges, if he so chooses.
Now, as a matter of practice, I don't think he will do that. . .at this point it would hurt him politically. . .but he certainly "could" do it (and would) if he thought there was political advantage to be had in doing so.
I don't think we will see 100% legalization in all states, just as some counties still don't sell booze. But I thik we'll many kore medicinal states, more legal recreational, overall decriminalization, and no federal intervention.
I don't think we're going to see "100% legalization" in **ANY** State. IE, you're NEVER going to be free to grow, buy, or possess as much cannabis as you like, the way, say, you are right now with basil or other herbs.
If that idea sounds "crazy" to you, remember, that was the legal status of cannabis in the USA for about 150 years, the majority of its history. Any current "legalization" scheme is going to come attached to pretty significant restrictions on possession, cultivation, and probably come with steep taxes too.
But I do agree with you entirely on the premise above. We probably will see increasing numbers of states that permit restricted legal use of cannabis under a "medical" schema over the next few years. For example, New Hampshire is likely to permit medical MJ soon.
Assuming the sky doesn't "fall" in CO or WA (and I doubt it will), we'll probably see at least a few other states permit limited possession/cultivation for recreational use over the next decade. Good candidates for that include CA, OR, and AK. But remember, proposition 19 to legalize MJ in CA *failed* (badly. . .by about an 8% margin) in CA just two years ago.
Of course there will still be States that ban all possession and cultivation of cannabis for the foreseeable future. EG, I wouldn't expect legal MJ in Alabama anytime soon, though hopefully even those states will eventually come around to decriminalization so that people don't face criminal sanction for limited possession or cultivation.
